The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the Key The Worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY September 2013 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide, forecasts from 2008 to 2012 2010 - 2020 5 IIT (MARCH 2011) 1,6 IIT 2007 1,4 DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) 4 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) 1,2 The worldwide xEV Million HEV powered by LIB market 2012-2025 Battery is the key IIT 2008 1 3 IIT (MARCH 2010) 0,8 2 0,6 IIT 2009 ROLAND BERGER (2011) IIT 2010 0,4 ROLAND BERGER (2012) September 2013 1 AVICENNE 2007-2012 0,2 AVICENNE 2007 AAB (2012) REALITY 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 2000 350 Li-ion Million Units / year Li-ion 300 Million Units/Year >115 M 1500 NiMH 250 NiMH Tablets 200 1000 150 202 M Portable 100 500 PCs 50 The worldwide xEV 0 0 market 2012-2025 2000 2012 2000 2012 Battery is the key Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) 80000 3 70000 Tons of cathode / Year 2,5 60000 2 50000 $/Wh 40000 1,5 September 2013 30000 1 20000 0,5 10000 0 0 2000 2012 2000 2012 Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 35 000 30 000 Others (Flow battery, The worldwide xEV 25 000 market 2012-2025 NAS, …) Battery is the key Li-ion 20 000 MWh NiMH 15 000 10 000 NiCD September 2013 5 000 0 1990 2000 2010 Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 400 000 400 000 350 000 350 000 300 000 300 000 The worldwide xEV Others (Flow battery, market 2012-2025 NAS, …) Battery is the key 250 000 250 000 Li-ion MWh MWh 200 000 200 000 NiMH NiCD 150 000 150 000 Lead Acid 100 000 100 000 September 2013 50 000 50 000 0 0 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 5
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012 50 BILLION US$ in 2012 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012) 60 60 50 50 The worldwide xEV Others (Flow market 2012-2025 40 40 battery, NAS, …) OTHERS Battery is the key Li-ion AUTOMOTIVE Billion US $ Billion US$ INDUSTRIAL 30 30 NiMH E-BIKES POWER TOOLS NiCD 20 20 PORTABLE Lead Acid SLI September 2013 10 10 0 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 1- Pack level + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 6
LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume 10 500 M$ +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012 MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012 35 000 16 000 The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 30 000 14 000 Battery is the key 12 000 25 000 10 000 M Wh 20 000 M Wh 8 000 15 000 6 000 10 000 4 000 5 000 2 000 September 2013 - - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7
LI-ION IN 2012 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK 4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh CAGR 2002/2012 +25 % per year in Volume 10 500 M$ +14% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012 12 000 6000 The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 10 000 5000 Battery is the key 4000 8 000 M $ M $ 3000 6 000 2000 4 000 1000 2 000 September 2013 0 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Automotives Tablets Power tools Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8
HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION EV & HEV MARKET HEV P HEV EV 0.6-2 kWh 5 kWh 25 kWh batteries batteries MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL The worldwide xEV HEV* HEV HEV HEV market 2012-2025 Battery is the key Fuel saving Vs. Cost TOYOTA PRIUS HONDA CIVIC 100% EV TOYOTA CITROEN C3 INSIGHT GM Saturn Vue CAMRY MERCEDES TOYOTA VITZ GM AURA 80% FORD ESCAPE S400 GM MALIBU FORD FUSION HONDA MILAN 60% September 2013 ACCORD P-HEV GM YUKON GM TAHOE 40% NISSAN ALTIMA 20% HEV 0% 0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $ Christophe PILLOT Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 9
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 1,5 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, Penetration of hybrids in the worldwide, 2000 - 2012 global sales, 2000-2012 1,6 2,0% 20% Million 1,8% 18% 1,4 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales 1,6% HEV worldwide penetration (%) 16% 1,2 The worldwide xEV 1,4% 14% market 2012-2025 JAPAN 1,0 Battery is the key 1,2% 12% 0,8 1,0% 10% 0,8% 0,6 8% 0,6% 0,4 6% 0,4% 0,2 September 2013 4% 0,2% USA 2% 0,0 0,0% EUROPE 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 TOYOTA OTHERS Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 10
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per +1,5 M in 2012 car manufacturers, 2000-2012 1 400 HYUNDAI PORCHE Others BMW TOYOTA ‘ 000 HEV sold 1 200 GM FORD 1 000 The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 HONDA 800 Battery is the key 600 400 TOYOTA; HONDA 200 81% September 2013 0 TOYOTA HONDA Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 11
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER OTHERS: FORD, GM, … TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI ‘ 000 HEV sold ‘ 000 HEV sold 1 400 50 HYUNDAI 45 TOYOTA 1 200 40 1 000 35 GM The worldwide xEV market 2012-2025 30 FORD 800 Battery is the key 25 600 20 15 400 10 200 HONDA 5 HYUNDAI September 2013 0 0 TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM HYUNDAI Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 12
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY COUNTRY Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per +1,5 M in 2012 country, 2004-2012 900000 OTHERS 800000 7% 700000 The worldwide xEV USA market 2012-2025 600000 Battery is the key 29% 500000 JAPAN 400000 EUROPE JAPAN 300000 USA 10% 54% 200000 September 2013 100000 EUROPE OTHERS 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 Micro hybrid not included + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 13
HEV FORECASTS 2012-2025 HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 35% 8 Million 7 30% HEV penetration (% of total car sales) 6 25% The worldwide xEV 5 market 2012-2025 20% Battery is the key 4 15% 3 10% 2 5% 1 September 2013 0 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 USA EUROPE JAPAN USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS OTHERS WORLD Christophe PILLOT Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 14
LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV LIB >>> NiMH but Recall slash battery profit SAFETY & COST ISSUES 30% 20% Sanyo PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion Operating profit/Revenue 10% MBI Volts 201.6 201.6 0% BYD Cells 168 (28*6) 56 -10% SGS Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah Sony -20% Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh NEC Weight 38 kg 25 kg -30% The worldwide xEV Maxell T°C Range + + -40% market 2012-2025 Cyclability + ++ LGC Battery is the key -50% Safety SDI 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Cost Average September 2013 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 15
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