The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2018-2030 Christophe PILLOT Director, AVICENNE ENERGY May 28 th , 2019 Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2018 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market Christophe PILLOT • Focus on xEV batteries + 33 1 44 55 19 90 • Forecasts & conclusions c.pillot@avicenne.com

AGENDA The market in 2018 by technology, applications & battery suppliers The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends Li-ion components market & value chain 2018 – 2030 xEV market in 2018 xEV forecasts up to 2030 Paris, France Industrial, stationary & ESS applications 2018-2030 May 28 th , 2019 Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2030 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020 The Rechargeable Battery 5 IIT (MARCH 2011) Market and Main Trends Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) 2018 – 2030 DEUTSCHE BANK 2012 4 3 ROLAND BERGER 2011 Paris, France AVICENNE 2018 2 May 28 th , 2019 AAB 2017 AVICENNE 2015 1 ROLAND BERGER 2012 AAB 2012 0 Christophe PILLOT 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3 Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007-2018

OEM INVESTMENT IN VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION Carmakers to invest more than $90 Billion in EV Ford will invest $11 billion by 2022 to launch 40 new electric cars and hybrids worldwide The Rechargeable Battery Volkswagen plan to spend $40 Billion by 2030 to build electrified versions of its 300-plus Market and Main Trends global models 2018 – 2030 Daimler will spend at least $11,7 billion to introduce 10 pure electric 40 hybrid models Nissan pledged to launch 8 new electric vehicles and hit annual sales of 1 million electrified vehicles by 2022 Toyota will launch 10 Evs by the early 2020s and sell 5,5 million electrified vehicles, including Paris, France hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, by 2030 BMW will offer 25 electrified (12 fully electric) vehicles by 2025 May 28 th , 2019 GM pledging to sell 20 all-electric vehicles by 2023 Honda says two-thirds of total car sales to be electrified models by 2030 Chinese automakers , all have publicized aggressive investment plans Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4 Source: Ted Miller, Ford, AABC Japan 2018 (From Reuters Jan 2018 Publication) – Avicenne Energy

CARMAKERS TO INVEST MORE THAN $300 BILLION IN EV Mazda 0,3 FAW 0,3 Chery 0,4 Honda 0,5 Volvo 0,7 PSA 0,8 Tata (India) 0,9 Jaguar Land Rover 2,3 The Rechargeable Battery BAIC 2,5 Market and Main Trends BYD 3,9 2018 – 2030 Dongfeng 5 SAIC 5 Geely 5 Mahindra (India): 6 JAC 6 GAC 7 BMW 7 Great Wall (China) 8 GM 8 Paris, France Tesla 10 Renault 10 May 28 th , 2019 Nissan 10 Fiat Chrysler 10 Ford 11 Toyota 14 Changan 15 Hyundai 20 Daimler 42 Volkswagen 91 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 0 50 100 c.pillot@avicenne.com 5 Source: Reuters January 2019, Avicenne Energy

WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET OVERVIEW Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies) Expected CAGR 18-30 (%) The Rechargeable Battery 95 +8% Market and Main Trends 88 2018 – 2030 ~ +2-3 % 82 Primary 14 13 (1) 12,5 Rechargeable +7-9% Paris, France 81 75 69 May 28 th , 2019 2016 2017 2018 Christophe PILLOT (1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 6 Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 2000 400 Million Units / year Million Units/Year Li-ion 1500 300 NiMH 155 M The Rechargeable Battery Tablets 1000 200 Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 500 100 164 M Portable PCs 0 0 2000 2018 2000 2018 Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) Tons of cathode active materials 3 400000 Paris, France 2,6 > 340 000 300000 May 28 th , 2019 2 $/Wh Tons 200000 1 100000 < 0,15 7 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT 2000 2018 2000 2018 + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share) 700 000 400 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 350 000 2018 – 2030 600 000 300 000 Others (Flow battery, 500 000 NAS, …) 250 000 Li-ion 400 000 MWh MWh 200 000 NiMH Paris, France 300 000 150 000 NiCD May 28 th , 2019 200 000 Lead Acid 100 000 100 000 50 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level 1 9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018) The Rechargeable Battery 80 80 Others (Flow Market and Main Trends OTHERS 70 70 battery, NAS, …) 2018 – 2030 40 60 60 AUTOMOTIVE Billion US $ Li-ion Billion US$ 50 50 INDUSTRIAL 40 40 NiMH E-BIKES 30 30 20 20 POWER TOOLS 37,5 10 NiCD 10 PORTABLE Paris, France 0 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SLI 1990 2005 2014 2016 2018 Lead Acid May 28 th , 2019 SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV Christophe PILLOT OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen + 33 1 44 55 19 90 DC converters, invertors…) not included concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard , … c.pillot@avicenne.com 9 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2018: US $ +80 BILLION 18 000 90 000 EV, E-Bus 16 000 80 000 Portable The Rechargeable Battery 14 000 Market and Main Trends 70 000 SLI Others 2018 – 2030 Others 12 000 60 000 ESS US $ 27 ESS UPS Billion for 10 000 50 000 “other” Telecom UPS applications 8 000 40 000 Other Motive Telecom Forklift Paris, France 6 000 30 000 Other Motive Power Tools May 28 th , 2019 4 000 Forklift 20 000 E-Bikes Power Tools 2 000 10 000 E-Bikes 0 0 Lead Acid LIB Others 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power Christophe PILLOT electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included + 33 1 44 55 19 90 c.pillot@avicenne.com 10 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2018 In volume (MWh) Lead Acid Batteries 2018 420 GWh for > US $ 37 Billion 700 000 The Rechargeable Battery SLI 600 000 Market and Main Trends 75% 2018 – 2030 Industry, ESS 500 000 Others (Flow E-bikes battery, NAS, …) 1% LSEV Li-ion 4% 400 000 17% 3% MWh Others NiMH medical, marine, others… % In volume 300 000 Paris, France Industrial Batteries – Lead acid batteries NiCD 69 GWh for US $ 11 Billion 200 000 May 28 th , 2019 Lead Acid Telecom 20% 100 000 UPS 13% 22% 0 Other 45% Stationary, ESS Christophe PILLOT Motive + 33 1 44 55 19 90 % In volume Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 c.pillot@avicenne.com 11

LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS >160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018 +24 % per year in Volume 2000: < 2GWh Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2017 The Rechargeable Battery Portable Phones 180 000 Market and Main Trends Electronics 17% 17% 2018 – 2030 160 000 140 000 Others 120 000 Portable PC 66% Industrial, M Wh 100 000 ESS 80 000 2018: 160 GWh Paris, France Auto, E-bus 60 000 China May 28 th , 2019 Auto, E-bus 40 000 Auto, e-bus China Auto, E-bus Excl. China 20 000 44% Excl. China 20% - Electronic 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 devices Electronic Industrial, ESS Christophe PILLOT devices 5% (1) Cell level Others + 33 1 44 55 19 90 20% Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… 11% c.pillot@avicenne.com 12 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 60 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV The Rechargeable Battery Average cost structure of Li-ion cell pouch cell NMC Market and Main Trends 2018 – 2030 Warranty 100% Sales & Adm 5% Production cost 90% 3% Depreciation 80% R&D 6% SGA, overhead 70% Energy, 60% utilities R&D 5% Cathode cost Paris, France 50% Direct labor 27% 2% Utility 40% May 28 th , 2019 30% Depreciation Labor Anode cost 15% 20% 7% Other Material 10% materials 19% Electrolyte 0% 6% Separator 5% Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells c.pillot@avicenne.com Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019 13