The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2025 Nice, France Christophe PILLOT October 4 th 2017 AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain Christophe PILLOT • xEV & ESS battery market + 33 1 47 78 46 00 • Forecasts & conclusions c.pillot@avicenne.com
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 3000 400 Million Units / year Million Units/Year Li-ion Li-ion 300 195 M NiMH 2000 The Rechargeable Battery Tablets 200 Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 1000 165 M 100 Portable PCs 0 0 2000 2016 2000 2016 Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) Tons of cathode active materials 3 250000 Nice, France 2,6 211 000 October 4 th , 2017 200000 2 $/Wh 150000 Tons 100000 1 50000 0,15 7 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT 2000 2016 2000 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 120 000 The Rechargeable Battery CAGR Li-ion 2010-2016 : +25% Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 100 000 80 000 Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) MWh Li-ion 60 000 Nice, France NiMH October 4 th , 2017 40 000 NiCD 20 000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 500 000 400 000 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 450 000 350 000 2016 – 2026 400 000 300 000 Others (Flow battery, 350 000 NAS, …) 250 000 300 000 Li-ion MWh 250 000 200 000 MWh NiMH Nice, France 200 000 150 000 October 4 th , 2017 NiCD 150 000 100 000 Lead Acid 100 000 50 000 50 000 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level 1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016) The Rechargeable Battery 80 80 Others (Flow Market and Main Trends OTHERS 70 70 battery, NAS, …) 2016 – 2026 60 60 AUTOMOTIVE Billion US $ Li-ion Billion US$ 50 50 INDUSTRIAL 40 40 NiMH E-BIKES 30 30 20 20 POWER TOOLS 10 NiCD 10 PORTABLE Nice, France 0 0 October 4 th , 2017 SLI 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lead Acid SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV Christophe PILLOT OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen + 33 1 47 78 46 00 DC converters, invertors…) not included concentrators c.pillot@avicenne.com 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS 90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) CAGR 2006/2016 5 675 M small cells +23 % per year in Volume 2000: < 2GWh Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016 The Rechargeable Battery Portable Phones 100 000 Market and Main Trends Electronics 17% 17% 2016 – 2026 90 000 80 000 Others 70 000 Portable PC 60 000 M Wh 66% Industrial, ESS 50 000 2016: 90 GWh 40 000 Nice, France Auto, E-bus October 4 th , 2017 China 30 000 Auto, E-bus Excl. China Auto, E-bus 20 000 Auto, e-bus 17% China Excl. China 10 000 33% - Electronic 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 devices Electronic Industrial, ESS Christophe PILLOT devices (1) Cell level 5% Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 35% Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… 10% c.pillot@avicenne.com 6 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS CAGR 2006/2016 +90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) +23% per year in Volume 5 675 M small cells Cell: +17% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value Li-ion cells Li-ion Packs The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016 2016 – 2026 25 000 35 000 30 000 20 000 Others 25 000 M$ M$ 15 000 Industrial, 20 000 ESS Nice, France 15 000 10 000 Auto, E-bus October 4 th , 2017 China 10 000 5 000 Auto, e-bus Excl. China 5 000 Electronic - - devices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7
LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2016 WORLDWIDE The worldwide Li-ion battery market The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 2016 in volume Company market share in 2016 in value (1) (small cells only) 6,4 B cells Estimated at B$ 31 in 2016 The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Others 3% 9% 8% 24% OTHERS 9% 31% 9% 10% 7% Zhuoneng Nice, France 2% 5% October 4 th , 2017 5% 8% Optimum 4% 9% 2% 4% BYD 19% A123 Wanxiang 7% CALB 1% 2% AESC Microvast BAK 2% 2% COSLIGHT Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower , DLG… YUASA First New 1% Christophe PILLOT Energy 1% (1) LIB battery pack market + 33 1 47 78 46 00 3% c.pillot@avicenne.com 8 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2017
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV The Rechargeable Battery Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016 pouch cell NMC Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 Cell Process 100% Yield, Scraps Margin Production cost Warranty 4% 90% Operating profit 7% 3% 80% Proces Yield Overheads 70% 3% Depreciation Sales & Adm 60% 3% Cathode cost SGA, overhead Nice, France 50% 22% R&D R&D October 4 th , 2017 6% Anode cost 40% 6% Energy, Utility 30% utilities Electrolyte Labor 4% 20% 6% Direct labor 10% Material 4% 0% Depreciation Separator 14% 7% Other materials Christophe PILLOT 11% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells c.pillot@avicenne.com Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017 9
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND CATHODE HODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ PACK CELL CAGR 06/16: +14% MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS Revenues: ANODE Revenues: 22,5 B$ The Rechargeable Battery 104 000 T 31 B$ Market and Main Trends Revenues: 1,16 B$ 2016 – 2026 CAGR 06/16: +13% Gross margin: Gross margin: <10% <10% ELECTR CTROLYT OLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19% Nice, France SEPARATOR OR October 4 th , 2017 1 500 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 15% ANCILLA ILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 10 Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES 2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by 2000-2025 LIB market, M cells, application (3C) by form factor (3C) The Rechargeable Battery 6000 CAGR 16-25: + 6% Market and Main Trends 60000 2016 – 2026 5000 50000 Other Portable 4000 Electronics M cells/year 40000 Tablets 3000 30000 MWh Nice, France Portable PCs 2000 October 4 th , 2017 20000 1000 Cellular Phones 10000 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses c.pillot@avicenne.com (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 11
CAGR 2016-2025:+ 17% X-EV MARKET 200 000 185 GWh Why x-EV ? 180 000 Definition & segmentation 160 000 X-EV worldwide in 2016 140 000 E-buses The Rechargeable Battery MWh for Auto & E-buses By country Market and Main Trends 2016 – 2026 120 000 PHEV & EV in 110 GWh By car makers China 100 000 EV By battery chemistry X-EV forecasts 80 000 PHEV Nice, France AVICENNE ENERGY & other 60 000 HEV 45 GWh October 4 th , 2017 analyst forecasts 40 000 Battery chemistry forecasts 20 000 Battery cost forecasts - X-EV battery forecasts 2016 2020 2025 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 12
Recommend
More recommend
