Lithium-Ion Battery Raw Material Supply and Demand 2016 – 2025 Mike SANDERS AVICENNE ENERGY June 19 th , 2017 Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain Christophe PILLOT • Li-ion battery material market + 33 1 47 78 46 00 • Forecasts & conclusions c.pillot@avicenne.com
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 3000 400 Million Units / year Million Units/Year Li-ion Li-ion 300 195 M NiMH 2000 Lithium ion battery raw Tablets 200 material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 1000 165 M 100 Portable PCs 0 0 2000 2016 2000 2016 Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) Tons of cathode active materials 3 250000 2,6 211 000 200000 June 19 th , 2017 2 $/Wh San Francisco, CA, USA 150000 Tons 100000 1 50000 0,15 7 000 0 0 Christophe PILLOT 2000 2016 2000 2016 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 120 000 Lithium ion battery raw CAGR Li-ion 2010-2016 : +25% material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 100 000 80 000 Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) MWh Li-ion 60 000 NiMH 40 000 NiCD June 19 th , 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA 20 000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 c.pillot@avicenne.com 3
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 500 000 400 000 Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand 450 000 350 000 2016 - 2025 400 000 300 000 Others (Flow battery, 350 000 NAS, …) 250 000 300 000 Li-ion MWh 250 000 200 000 MWh NiMH 200 000 150 000 NiCD 150 000 June 19 th , 2017 100 000 Lead Acid San Francisco, CA, USA 100 000 50 000 50 000 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2016 69 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level 1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2006-2016) Lithium ion battery raw 80 80 Others (Flow material supply & demand OTHERS 70 70 battery, NAS, …) 2016 - 2025 60 60 AUTOMOTIVE Billion US $ Li-ion Billion US$ 50 50 INDUSTRIAL 40 40 NiMH E-BIKES 30 30 20 20 POWER TOOLS 10 NiCD 10 PORTABLE 0 0 SLI 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 1990 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 Lead Acid June 19 th , 2017 San Francisco, CA, USA SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc… INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV Christophe PILLOT OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen + 33 1 47 78 46 00 DC converters, invertors…) not included concentrators c.pillot@avicenne.com 5 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 2016: US $ 69 BILLION 14 000 80 000 EV, E-Bus 70 000 12 000 Portable Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand SLI 60 000 Others 2016 - 2025 10 000 Others ESS US $ 23 50 000 ESS 8 000 UPS Billion for “other” Telecom UPS 40 000 applications 6 000 Other Motive Telecom 30 000 Forklift Other Motive 4 000 Power Tools 20 000 June 19 th , 2017 Forklift E-Bikes San Francisco, CA, USA 2 000 Power Tools 10 000 E-Bikes 0 0 Lead Acid LIB Others 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power Christophe PILLOT electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 6 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS 90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) CAGR 2006/2016 5 675 M small cells +23 % per year in Volume 2000: < 2GWh Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2016 Lithium ion battery raw Portable Phones 100 000 material supply & demand Electronics 17% 17% 2016 - 2025 90 000 80 000 Others 70 000 Portable PC 60 000 M Wh 66% Industrial, ESS 50 000 2016: 90 GWh 40 000 Auto, E-bus China 30 000 Auto, E-bus June 19 th , 2017 Excl. China Auto, E-bus 20 000 Auto, e-bus San Francisco, CA, USA 17% China Excl. China 10 000 33% - Electronic 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 devices Electronic Industrial, ESS Christophe PILLOT devices (1) Cell level 5% Others + 33 1 47 78 46 00 35% Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… 10% c.pillot@avicenne.com 7 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017
LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS CAGR 2006/2016 +90 000 MWh - 23 B$ (1) +23% per year in Volume 5 675 M small cells Cell: +17% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value Li-ion cells Li-ion Packs Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016 2016 - 2025 25 000 35 000 30 000 20 000 Others 25 000 M$ M$ 15 000 Industrial, 20 000 ESS 15 000 10 000 Auto, E-bus China June 19 th , 2017 10 000 San Francisco, CA, USA 5 000 Auto, e-bus Excl. China 5 000 Electronic - - devices 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Christophe PILLOT Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e- bikes… + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2017 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8
LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV Lithium ion battery raw Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016 pouch cell NMC material supply & demand 2016 - 2025 Cell Process 100% Yield, Scraps Margin Production cost Warranty 4% 90% Operating profit 7% 3% 80% Proces Yield Overheads 70% 3% Depreciation Sales & Adm 60% 3% Cathode cost SGA, overhead 50% 22% R&D R&D 6% Anode cost 40% June 19 th , 2017 6% Energy, Utility 30% utilities San Francisco, CA, USA Electrolyte Labor 4% 20% 6% Direct labor 10% Material 4% 0% Depreciation Separator 14% 7% Other materials Christophe PILLOT 11% + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells c.pillot@avicenne.com Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017 9
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND CATHODE HODE 211 OOO T in 2016 Revenues: 4,75 B$ PACK CELL CAGR 06/16: +14% MANUFACTURERS MANUFACTURERS Revenues: ANODE Revenues: 22,5 B$ Lithium ion battery raw 104 000 T 31 B$ material supply & demand Revenues: 1,16 B$ 2016 - 2025 CAGR 06/16: +13% Gross margin: Gross margin: <10% <10% ELECTR CTROLYT OLYTE 103 000 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 06/16 : 19% SEPARATOR OR 1 500 M m² June 19 th , 2017 Revenues: 1,6 B$ San Francisco, CA, USA CAGR 06/16 : 15% ANCILLA ILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 10 Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016
LIB CATHODE MATERIAL Cathode raw materials market LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) Lithium ion battery raw material supply & demand LiMPO4 (1) (LFP) 2016 - 2025 Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA Source: SANYO, March 2011 (1) M= Fe or Mn Ni & Co price 2003-2015 150 Ni June 19 th , 2017 Co San Francisco, CA, USA 100 $/kg 50 Christophe PILLOT 0 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice c.pillot@avicenne.com 11 Source: LME
CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2010- Rationales 2016 ( Demand ) In 2016, LCO is used in pouch cells for 250 000 211 000 electronic devices: smartphones, Lithium ion battery raw 200 000 material supply & demand tablets, ultra thin portable PCs LFP 2016 - 2025 150 000 Tons LMO NMC is used in other electronic 100 000 NCA 67 000 devices & xEV 50 000 NMC NCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells LCO - in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 in other xEV June 19 th , 2017 LEADERS : LMO is mostly used as a blend with San Francisco, CA, USA NMC in xEV LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: and for industrial applications Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 (…) c.pillot@avicenne.com 12
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