Quarterly supply/demand Supply Demand Quarterly numbers Supply - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly supply/demand Supply Demand

Quarterly numbers • Supply numbers from the Virginia One-stop System (VOS). Demand numbers from Virginialmi.com • Program year quarters run: – Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 – Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 – Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 – Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30

Workforce Regions

Quarterly Job Orders per Region 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Q1 Q2 8,000 Q3 6,000 4,000 2,000 - I II III IV VI VII VIII IX XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII

Low to mid skill • Orders for low to mid skill levels LWIA Q1 Q2 Q3 Q3 Low/Mid I 521 459 405 83% II 1,484 1426 76% 1,578 III 1,008 883 874 76% IV 1,441 1,376 1,000 59% VI 685 591 57% 790 VII 418 317 302 77% VIII 329 311 257 71% IX 2,091 1,146 45% 2,459 XI 993 1,004 698 63% XII 11,851 6,215 37% 11,980 XIII 1,044 934 726 53% XIV 1,315 987 871 63% XV 624 541 67% 728 XVI 2,640 2,468 1,698 54% XVII 667 611 476 70% 27,911 26,085 17,226 49%

Supply: entered training trends 3,000 2,500 Total of 536 people entered training, 2,000 2011 compared to 780 2012 1,500 same time last year 2013 (Q2PY13). 1,000 2014 500 - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 2011 565 368 503 787 2,223 Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 2012 656 336 503 719 2,214 Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30 2013 700 377 780 699 2,556 2014 807 351 536 1,694

Supply: exited training trends 3,000 2,500 Total of 386 people 2,000 completed training, 2011 compared to 544 2012 1,500 same time last year 2013 (Q1PY13). 2014 1,000 500 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL Q1 = 07/01 – 9/30 2011 1,125 516 379 727 2,747 Q2 = 10/01 – 12/31 2012 968 413 425 808 2,614 Q3 = 1/1 – 3/31 2013 734 548 542 881 2,705 Q4 = 4/1 – 6/30 2014 808 516 386 1,710

Top Statewide Occupations Demand Entered Training Completers RNs Nursing Aides LPN and LVNs Truck drivers General Managers Nursing aides Retail Sales LPN and LVN Computer Support Computer programmers Medical Assistants Electricians Food industry RNs Accountants C/S Representatives Electricians Carpenters Top occupations listed by projected statewide demand over the next five years 1 • Registered Nurses • Office Supervisors • Electricians • Construction Supervisors • Sales Representatives 1. VA LMI

Employment Trends Virginia & Workforce Regions • Data from the Virginia Employment Commission’s core data programs – Current Employment Statistics – Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages – Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Virginia Industry Employment Growth Percent Growth Over the Year April 2015 Payroll Data Government Accommodation and food services Leisure and hospitality Educational services Education and health services Professional and business services Finance and insurance Information Trade, transportation, and utilities Manufacturing Construction Mining and logging Total nonfarm -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Virginia Payroll Employment April 2015 Current Month MoM % Chg YoY % Chg Total nonfarm 3,806,400 1.3 0.9 Mining and logging 8,500 -2.3 -12.4 Construction 184,800 4.5 4.3 Manufacturing 233,200 0.0 1.0 Trade, transportation, and utilities 637,800 0.3 0.6 Information 69,200 -0.9 -2.3 Finance and insurance 142,500 0.1 1.1 Professional and business services 681,200 1.8 0.3 Education and health services 510,900 1.0 2.2 Educational services 94,200 1.3 1.7 Leisure and hospitality 370,200 4.0 0.4 Accommodation and food services 323,200 3.4 0.7 Government 719,200 0.8 0.5 Source: Virginia Employment Commission, CES

Workforce Region Employment Change 3 rd Quarter 2014 Change Over Prior Quarter and Same Quarter a Year Ago Level QoQ % Chg YoY % Chg Alexandria/Arlington (LWIA XII) 260,714 0.31 -0.01 Bay Consortium (LWIA XIII) 160,035 1.22 1.41 Capital Region Workforce Partnership (LWIA IX) 529,304 -0.09 1.17 Crater Area (LWIA XV) 67,532 -1.78 1.28 Greater Peninsula (LWIA XIV) 225,045 -1.03 -0.17 Hampton Roads (LWIA XVI) 492,586 -0.30 -0.13 New River/Mt. Rogers (LWIA II) 137,418 -0.89 0.28 Northern Virginia (LWIA XI) 901,702 -0.84 0.02 Piedmont Workforce Network (LWIA VI) 159,113 -0.83 1.63 Region 2000/Central VA (LWIA VII) 98,285 0.20 1.09 Shenandoah Valley (LWIA IV) 210,762 -0.30 1.27 South Central (LWIA VIII) 52,733 -2.40 0.65 Southwestern Virginia (LWIA I) 57,785 -2.10 -2.24 West Piedmont (LWIA XVII) 67,353 -1.52 -0.15 Western Virginia (LWIA III) 156,835 -1.01 0.79 Source: Virginia Employment Commission, QCEW

Workforce Region Unemployment Rates April 2014 vs. April 2015 Level of UE 2015 2014 Alexandria/Arlington (LWIA XII) 7,451 3.1% 3.2% Bay Consortium (LWIA XIII) 12,278 5.0% 5.4% Capital Region Workforce Partnership (LWIA IX) 25,603 4.6% 4.9% Crater Area (LWIA XV) 4,939 6.6% 7.2% Greater Peninsula (LWIA XIV) 13,375 5.3% 5.5% Hampton Roads (LWIA XVI) 28,634 5.0% 5.2% New River/Mt. Rogers (LWIA II) 9,184 5.0% 5.5% Northern Virginia (LWIA XI) 41,474 3.7% 3.9% Piedmont Workforce Network (LWIA VI) 8,730 4.0% 4.1% Region 2000/Central VA (LWIA VII) 6,093 4.9% 5.1% Shenandoah Valley (LWIA IV) 12,030 4.5% 4.7% South Central (LWIA VIII) 4,681 5.9% 6.6% Southwestern Virginia (LWIA I) 5,777 7.6% 7.9% West Piedmont (LWIA XVII) 5,767 6.8% 7.3% Western Virginia (LWIA III) 7,838 4.6% 4.9% Source: Virginia Employment Commission, LAUS

Virginia/US Unemployment Rates 12 10 US VA 8 6 4 US: 5.5 VA: 4.9 2 0 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10 J-11 J-12 J-13 J-14 J-15 Source: VEC/BLS

Contact Info Tim Kestner, Sr. Economist tokestner@vec.virginia.gov 804-786-8014 Leo Campos, PMP lcampos@vccs.edu 804-819-4430

Quarterly supply/demand Supply Demand

Supplemental slides

Skill Levels (O*Net) • Job Zone 1 : Little or No Preparation Needed. Some of these occupations may require a high school diploma or GED certificate. • Job Zone 2 : Some Preparation Needed. These occupations usually require a high school diploma. • Job Zone 3 : Medium Preparation Needed. Most occupations in this zone require training in vocational schools, related on-the-job experience, or an associate's degree. • Job Zone 4 : Considerable Preparation Needed. Most of these occupations require a four-year bachelor's degree, but some do not. • Job Zone 5 : Extensive Preparation Needed. Most of these occupations require graduate school. For example, they may require a master's degree, and some require a Ph.D., M.D., or J.D. (law degree).