California Independent System Operator Summer Summer 2007 2007 Supply Supply and and Demand Demand Operational Outlook Operational Outlook Board of Governors Mee Board of Governors Meeting ting March 2007 March 2007 Bob Emmert Bob Emmert Sr. Loads and Resources Engineer Sr. Loads and Resources Engineer Created By: REmmert, Page 1 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator Introduction and Over Introduction and Overview view The CAISO annually prepares a Summer Oper The CAISO annually prepares a Summer Operational ational Assessment. Assessment. Incorporates historical load and resource parameters. Incorporates historical load and resource parameters. Near-term load and resource changes. Near-term load and resource changes. Assessment to highli Assessment to highlight: ght: Reasonable range of probable operating conditions. Reasonable range of probable operating conditions. Probabilities of meeting key operating reserve parameters. Probabilities of meeting key operating reserve parameters. Probability Probability analysis methodology analysis methodology adopted for 2007. adopted for 2007. Analysis util Analysis utilizes CEC probability izes CEC probability model using ISO model using ISO data. data. Analysis performed on Analysis performed on CAISO control CAISO control area, SP26 area, SP26 and NP26 and NP26 sub-regions. sub-regions. Analysis Focuses on S Analysis Focuses on Stage 1, 2 & 3 tage 1, 2 & 3 operating r operating reserve eserve emergency conditions . emergency conditions . Created By: REmmert, Page 2 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator Review of Summer 2006 Review of Summer 2006 Demand Demand 2006 peak load weather conditions were extremely hot, exceeding 2006 peak load weather conditions were extremely hot, exceeding both the 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 demand forecast scenarios provided in both the 1-in-2 and 1-in-10 demand forecast scenarios provided in the Summer 2006 assessment. the Summer 2006 assessment. The CAISO experienced an all time peak of 50,270 MW, well in The CAISO experienced an all time peak of 50,270 MW, well in excess of the previous 2005 record of 44,311 MW (adjusted) and excess of the previous 2005 record of 44,311 MW (adjusted) and 2006 most likely forecast of 46,063 MW. 2006 most likely forecast of 46,063 MW. Forecasting models were tested and found to be accurate for Forecasting models were tested and found to be accurate for temperatures experienced within the normal expected accuracy temperatures experienced within the normal expected accuracy tolerances. tolerances. Forecast model was updated with 2006 temperature Forecast model was updated with 2006 temperature and load data and load data resulted in the forecast model being more robust on the high load resulted in the forecast model being more robust on the high load side. side. Created By: REmmert, Page 3 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator Review of Summer 2006 Review of Summer 2006 - - Continued Continued Supply Supply Entered 2006 summe Entered 2006 summer with a r with a 24.6% forecasted 24.6% forecasted planning reserv planning reserve. e. Based on most likely forecasts. Based on most likely forecasts. Supply system Supply system was tested by record loads. was tested by record loads. CAISO managed through CAISO managed through the peak the peak without having to shed load without having to shed load. Due to: Due to: Superb execution of 2006 Summer preparation plans by all participants Superb execution of 2006 Summer preparation plans by all participants Generators, transmission owners, conservation campaigns, end-use customers Generators, transmission owners, conservation campaigns, end-use customers High Planning Reserve High Planning Reserve Resource Adequacy (RA) Resource Adequacy (RA) forward procurement process forward procurement process Record supply availability Record supply availability Generators ga Generators gave a stellar perfo ve a stellar performance rmance Approximatel Approximately 4,000 MW abo y 4,000 MW above historical le ve historical levels & most likel vels & most likely forecast y forecast Team work between agencies Team work between agencies Example: Coordina Example: Coordination with tion with the Northw the Northwest resulted in I est resulted in Imports being mports being approximatel approximately 1,000 MW abo y 1,000 MW above forecast ve forecast Created By: REmmert, Page 4 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator Load Overview Load Overview CAISO Historical & Forecast Pe CAISO Historica l & Forecast Peak Demand ak Demand 2007 1-in-10 2007 1-in-10 Forecast Forecast 50,609 MW 50,609 MW 2006 Actual 2006 Act ual 52,500 52,500 50,270 MW 50,270 MW 2,762 50,000 50,000 4,207 47,500 47,500 Peak Demand (MW) 45,000 45,000 42,500 42,500 47,847 46,063 40,000 40,000 44,311 43,987 1-in-2 Forecast 40,886 41,248 1-in-2 Forecast 37,500 37,500 35,000 35,000 32,500 32,500 30,000 30,000 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 CAISO Ac CA ISO Actual Demand (A tual Demand (Adjusted) djusted) Additional Over 1-in-2 dditional Over 1-in-2 (Ad (Adjusted for SM justed for SMUD, WAP UD, WAPA, M , MID & TID Leaving ISO) ID & TID Leaving ISO) Created By: REmmert, Page 5 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator 2007 Resource 2007 Resource Overview Overview Generation Generation 2007 control area generation additions are approximately 700 MW. 2007 control area generation additions are approximately 700 MW. California hydro conditions are below normal YTD California hydro conditions are below normal YTD . Imports Imports System import capability for 2007 is unchanged from 2006. System import capability for 2007 is unchanged from 2006. Forecast of imports are based on historical trends seen during peak. Forecast of imports are based on historical trends seen during peak. The system has the capability for additional imports. The system has the capability for additional imports. Import levels are driven by market need and regional availability. Import levels are driven by market need and regional availability. Potential increased hydro limitations on Columbia River hy Potential increased hydro limitations on Columbia River hydro system dro system are not expected to occur by summer 2007. are not expected to occur by summer 2007. Demand Response (DR) and Demand Response (DR) and Interruptible Interruptible Programs Programs DR and Interruptible programs are based on CPUC 2007 estimates, DR and Interruptible programs are based on CPUC 2007 estimates, adjusted based on historical performance as experienced by the ISO. adjusted based on historical performance as experienced by the ISO. Approximately 230 MW added since summer 2006 (adjusted). Approximately 230 MW added since summer 2006 (adjusted). DR programs are triggered at Stage-1 emergencies (largely voluntary). DR programs are triggered at Stage-1 emergencies (largely voluntary). Interruptible programs are triggered at Stage-2 emergencies. Interruptible programs are triggered at Stage-2 emergencies. Net 930 MW Net 930 MW Impact approxima Impact approximately equival tely equivalent to 1-years l ent to 1-years load gro oad growth. wth. Created By: REmmert, Page 6 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator Overview of Probabilit Overview of Probability Analysis y Analysis Includes variability due to: Includes variability due to: Annual Peak Load based on historical Annual Peak Load based on historical weather cond eather conditions itions Historical ra Historical range of generation ou nge of generation outages at time o tages at time of peak f peak Historical ra Historical range of transmi nge of transmission limit ssion limitations at tim ations at time of peak e of peak Performed for 3 Areas: Performed for 3 Areas: CAISO control area CAISO control area SP26 Zone (South of Pa SP26 Zone (South of Path 26) th 26) NP26 Zone (North of Pat NP26 Zone (North of Path 26) h 26) Determines probability of entering into emergency Determines probability of entering into emerge ncy operating conditions: operating conditions: Stage-1, Opera Stage-1, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 7% w 7% Stage-2, Opera Stage-2, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 5% w 5% Stage-3, Opera Stage-3, Operating reserves belo ting reserves below 3% w 3% Created By: REmmert, Page 7 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
California Independent System Operator CAISO Summer 20 CAISO Summer 2007 07 Operating R Operating Reserv eserves es 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% Cumulative Probability 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Operating Reserve Margin Operating Reserve Margin Created By: REmmert, Page 8 LST UPDT: 3/7/07
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