HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the key Christophe PILLOT BRUSSELS Director, AVICENNE ENERGY 20 – 22 NOVEMBER 2012 Christophe PILLOT c.pillot@avicenne.com +33(0)1 4778 4600
AVICENNE PROFILE Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI Headquarter: Paris HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Liaison Office: Japan, USA Battery is the Key AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot 5 consultants The Rechargeable A Madani Customized Battery market survey C Pillot 21 st Edition JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 2
METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION Top management In Depth analysis Cross Check contact network Of applications Analysis > 19 000 contacts Conferences & HEV, P-HEV and EV Battery market 2011-2025 Exhibitions Makers Battery is the Key Substitution OEM technologies Raw BMS materials Electronics suppliers Environment & recycling Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN Source : Photo from BASF HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Raw BMS & Battery is the Key Materials Electronics Batteries Cooling Power Systems Electronics Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS HEV powered by Lithium ion battery EV sold, in million units, worldwide, forecasts from 2008 to 2012 2010 - 2020 IIT (March 5 1,6 2011) IIT 2007 1,4 Deutsche Bank 4 Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million) HEV, P-HEV and EV 1,2 market 2011-2025 Million HEV powered by LIB IIT 2008 1 Battery is the Key 3 Roland Berger (2011) 0,8 2 IIT 2009 0,6 IIT (March 2010) IIT 2010 Roland 0,4 Berger 1 (2012) AVICENNE AVICENNE 0,2 2007 AAB REALITY 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2015 2020 Christophe PILLOT Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 5
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Portable PC sold per Year (Million) 2000 300 Li-ion Million Units / year Li-ion 65 M 250 Million Units/Year 1500 Tablets NiMH NiMH 200 1000 150 211 M Portable 100 500 PCs 50 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 0 0 2000 2011 2000 2011 Battery is the Key Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh) 70000 3 60000 Tons of cathode / Year 2,5 50000 2 40000 $/Wh 1,5 30000 1 20000 0,5 10000 0 0 2000 2011 2000 2011 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 6
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share) 300 000 450 000 35 000 400 000 30 000 250 000 350 000 HEV, P-HEV and EV Others (Flow battery, Others (Flow battery, market 2011-2025 25 000 200 000 NAS, …) 300 000 NAS, …) Battery is the Key Li-ion Li-ion 20 000 250 000 MWh MWh MWh 150 000 NiMH 200 000 NiMH 15 000 NiCD 100 000 150 000 10 000 NiCD Lead Acid 100 000 50 000 5 000 50 000 0 0 0 1990 1990 2000 2010 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 7
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010 35 BILLION US$ 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010) 40,0 40,0 35,0 35,0 30,0 30,0 HEV, P-HEV and EV Others (Flow market 2011-2025 battery, NAS, …) 25,0 25,0 STORAGE Battery is the Key Li-ion Billion US $ Billion US$ TRACTION 20,0 20,0 NiMH INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE NiCD 15,0 15,0 SLI Lead Acid 10,0 10,0 5,0 5,0 0,0 - 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 8
LI-ION IN 2011 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK >4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume 9 700 M$ +13% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011 MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011 30 000 12 000 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 25 000 10 000 Battery is the Key 20 000 8 000 M Wh M Wh 15 000 6 000 10 000 4 000 5 000 2 000 - - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 9
LI-ION IN 2011 MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK > 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume 9 700 M$ +13% per year in value Li-ion Battery sales, Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011 M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011 12 000 6000 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 10 000 5000 Battery is the Key 4000 8 000 M $ M $ 3000 6 000 2000 4 000 1000 2 000 0 - 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Automotives Tablets Power tools Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 10
WHY X-EV ? Petroleum Price of the WTI barrel CO2 density in the consumption of oil, US $ atmosphere increase worldwide 1960-2030 120 4 Million barrel per day 120 3,5 100 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 100 3 80 Battery is the Key 2,5 80 60 2 60 Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate 1,5 Change 2007, Synthesis Report p38 40 40 1 20 20 0,5 0 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1973 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Christophe PILLOT Source: Energy Information Source: + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Administration, US Government http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/ c.pillot@avicenne.com pub/contents.html 11
HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION EV & HEV MARKET HEV P HEV EV 0.6-2 kWh 5 kWh 25 kWh batteries batteries MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL HEV, P-HEV and EV HEV* HEV HEV HEV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key Fuel saving Vs. Cost TOYOTA PRIUS HONDA CIVIC 100% EV TOYOTA CITROEN C3 INSIGHT GM Saturn Vue CAMRY MERCEDES TOYOTA VITZ GM AURA 80% FORD ESCAPE S400 GM MALIBU FORD FUSION HONDA MILAN 60% ACCORD P-HEV GM YUKON GM TAHOE 40% NISSAN ALTIMA 20% HEV 0% 0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $ Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 12
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 1,5 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, Penetration of hybrids in the worldwide, 2000 - 2012 global sales, 2000-2012 1,6 2,0% 20% Million 1,8% 18% 1,4 Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales 1,6% HEV worldwide penetration (%) 16% 1,2 HEV, P-HEV and EV 1,4% market 2011-2025 14% JAPAN 1,0 1,2% Battery is the Key 12% 0,8 1,0% 10% 0,8% 0,6 8% 0,6% 0,4 6% 0,4% 0,2 4% 0,2% USA 2% 0,0 0,0% EUROPE 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 TOYOTA OTHERS Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 13
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per +1,5 M in 2012 car manufacturers, 2000-2012 1 400 HYUNDAI PORCHE BMW TOYOTA ‘ 000 HEV sold Others 1 200 GM FORD 1 000 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 HONDA 800 Battery is the Key 600 400 TOYOTA HONDA 200 0 TOYOTA HONDA Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 14
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER OTHERS: FORD, GM, … TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI ‘ 000 HEV sold ‘ 000 HEV sold 1 400 50 HYUNDAI 45 TOYOTA 1 200 40 1 000 HEV, P-HEV and EV 35 GM market 2011-2025 30 FORD 800 Battery is the Key 25 600 20 15 400 10 200 HONDA 5 HYUNDAI 0 0 TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM HYUNDAI Christophe PILLOT Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY + 33 1 47 78 46 00 Micro hybrid not included c.pillot@avicenne.com 15
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY COUNTRY Total HEV Vehicles HEV sold per year, M units per 1,5 M in 2012 country, 2004-2012 900000 OTHERS 800000 7% 700000 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 USA 600000 29% Battery is the Key 500000 JAPAN 400000 EUROPE JAPAN 300000 USA 10% 54% 200000 100000 EUROPE OTHERS 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Christophe PILLOT Micro hybrid not included + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 16
HEV FORECASTS 2012-2020 HEV MARKET: +2 Million units in 2015 & +4 M Units in 2020 35% 5 Million 4,5 30% 4 25% 3,5 HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 3 20% Battery is the Key 2,5 15% 2 1,5 10% 1 5% 0,5 0 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 USA EUROPE JAPAN USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS OTHERS WORLD Christophe PILLOT Micro hybrid not included + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com 17
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