Ado ptio n o f g re e n fle e ts e c o no mic and e nviro nme ntal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ado ptio n o f g re e n fle e ts – e c o no mic and e nviro nme ntal life c yc le asse ssme nt o f e le c tric ve hic le s in Ne w E ng land. NAT HAN PE ABODY DE PART ME NT OF NAT URAL RE SOURCE S AND T HE E NVI RONME NT JANUARY 17 T H , 2020

Ove ra rc hing Que stio ns  Ho w muc h mo re e xpe nsive a re E Vs tha n tra ditio na l fle e t ve hic le s?  E Vs hig h purc hasing pric e  L o we r mainte nanc e , fue l c o sts  Ho w do e missio ns fo r E Vs c o mpa re ?  T ranspo rtatio n se c to r: 28% natio nal CO2e e missio ns  All Ne w E ng land State s o ve r 28% (36% RI to 53% ME , 42% NH)  62% to tal e missio ns fro m lig ht duty ve hic le s  Ve hic le s c o nside re d in a fle e t se tting  L arg e po te ntial CO2e re duc tio ns fo r b usine sse s, munic ipalitie s, and Go v. ag e nc ie s  Ac c o unting fo r Ne w E ng land c limate , e ne rg y g rid, driving c o nditio ns

E c o no mic L ife Cyc le Co sts Ana lysis  L CCA = I nve stme nt + PV (ma inte na nc e ) + PV (e ne rg y) + PV (dispo sa l) – PV (sa lva g e ) Ana lysis Re quire me nt Da ta Ve hic le purc ha se pric e (MSRP) Inve stme nt Cost Re pa ir, o pe ra tio ns, a nd ma inte na nc e c o sts Mainte nanc e Cost fo r ve hic le s a nd infra struc ture (e x. o il c ha ng e , tire s, b ra ke , b a tte ry re pla c e me nt, e tc .) T o ta l c o st o f e ne rg y input E ne r gy Cost (c o st pe r c ha rg e , c o st pe r g a llo n) Pro je c te d re sa le va lue a t e nd o f ve hic le s life Disposal/ Salvage c yc le (K BB 5 ye a r re sa le va lue , 5% a nnua l de c re a se the re a fte r) *All final c o sts disc o unte d to the pre se nt value (PV) using 3% disc o unt rate

E nviro nme nta l L ife Cyc le Ana lysis  Sc o pe : GHG e missio ns inve nto ry  Output  Gre e nho use g a se s, Re g ula te d E missio ns, a nd E ne rg y use in T ra nspo rta tio n Mo de l (GRE E T ) fro m the Arg o nne Na tio na l L a b o ra to ry  Ve hic le Cyc le : Ma te ria l e xtra c tio n, ve hic le pro duc tio n, o pe ra tio n, a nd dispo sa l  F ue l Cyc le : Upstre a m e missio ns re la ting to e xtra c tio n, pro c e ssing , tra nspo rt o f fue l, a nd E V “e xte nde d ta ilpipe ” e missio ns fro m e le c tric a l g e ne ra tio n  Re g io na l inputs  Ve hic le fue l e ffic ie nc y  I SO-NE g rid inputs

E xpe rime nta l De sig n F o ur te c hno lo g ie s:  NHDE S F le e t  T ra ditio na l fle e t ve hic le s: I nte rna l Co mb ustio n (I CV), Ave ra g e Mile s Ye a rs o f T o ta l L ife time Hyb rid (HE V) Pe r Ye a r Ope ra tio n Mile s  E le c tric fle e t ve hic le s: Plug in Hyb rid (PHE V), Ba tte r E le c tric (BE V) 8954 11.6 103866.4 Ve hic le Ma ke / Mo de ls  *F inal re sults b ase d o n NHDE S fle e t  ICV: F o rd F o c us (2018)  HE V: T o yo ta Prius (2019)  PHE V: T o yo ta Prius Prime (2019)  BE V: Nissa n L e a f (2019)  BE V: Nissa n L e a f Plus (2019) Da ta So urc e s   Sta te o f Ne w Ha mpshire (NHDE S/ NHDAS)  Unive rsity o f Ne w Ha mpshire  Pe e r re vie we d lite ra ture (93% BE V/ PHE V fue l e ffic ie nc y a ssumptio n (T a g g a rt, 2018))  K e lly Blue Bo o k

Re sults: E c o no mic  HE V lo we st pro je c te d life c yc le c o sts Pr oje c te d L ife Cyc le Costs  -$1,432.06 c o mpa re d to I CV Purc hasing Ve hic le F ue l Mainte nanc e Salvage T otal Pric e  BE Vs mo re c o mpe titive tha n purc ha sing F o rd F o c us $17,950.00 $7,040.80 $9,170.30 $3,884.60 $30,276.49 pric e indic a te s  sub sta ntia l fue l/ ma inte na nc e re duc tio n T o yo ta Prius $23,770.00 $4,782.66 $6,113.53 $5,821.76 $28,844.43 c o mpa re d to I CV T o yo ta Prius $28,300.00 $5,606.13 $6,113.53 $6,931.25 $33,088.41 Prime  T o ta l c o sts still +$3,733.93  L e a f Plus no t c o st c o mpe titive Nissa n L e a f $29,999.00 $4,254.78 $4,075.69 $4,319.05 $34,010.42  E ffe c tive Pric e (Purc ha se – Sa lva g e ) mo st Nissa n L e a f $36,555.00 $4,377.16 $4,075.69 $5,264.52 $39,743.32 Plus influe ntia l o n to ta l c o st  I CV: $14,065.40  L e a f: $25,679.95

 E ffe c tive Pric e  Hig h fo r BE Vs --> L a rg e purc ha sing pric e / Re sale Value c o mpa ra tive ly lo w re sa le va lue F ive ye a r r e sa le Ve hic le va lue (% )  I f 44% 5 ye a r re sa le va lue a ssume d F o rd F o c us 44% T o yo ta Prius 50%  Nissa n L e a f to ta l c o sts c o mpa re d to I CV dro ps 58% Prius Prime 50%  +$3,733.93 to +$1,562.77 Nissa n L e a f 29%  F e de ra l inc e ntive s L e a f Plus 29%  F ull ($7,500) --> L e a f lo we st to ta l c o sts in a na lysis  Ha lf ($3,750) --> L e a f lo we r to ta l c o st tha n I CV  BE V F ue l Co sts  F ull E PA fue l e ffic ie nc y: o nly $297.83 c o st re duc tio n  Ze ro e le c tric : -520.86 c o mpa re d to I CV

Re sults: E nviro nme nta l  F unc tio n Unit: 1 mile drive n  L a rg e po rtio n o f I CV a nd HE V e missio ns c o me s fro m o pe ra tio ns  BE V e missio ns g re a tly impa c te d b y b o th e le c tric a l e ne rg y inputs (50% L e a f) a nd b a tte ry pro duc tio n (25% L e a f)  Nissa n L e a f 46% GHG e missio ns re duc tio n c o mpa re d to F o rd F o c us  Po te ntia l L e a f fle e t re duc tio ns: 650.5 me tric to ns CO2e

 Grid I nputs - Re pre se nta tive o f re g io na l diffe re nc e s:  I SO-NE na tura l g a s/ nuc le a r he a vy  Co a l/ o il he a vy g rids ma y no t pro vide GHG re duc tio ns  As g rid b e c o me s le ss c a rb o n inte nsive , BE V impa c ts will b e re duc e d  Pa iring BE V with re ne wa b le e ne rg y le a ds to la rg e st e missio ns re duc tio n  T he lo ng e r a BE V a re o n the ro a d – the g re a te r the c a rb o n re duc tio n c o mpa re d to a n I CV (e mb e dde d c a rb o n fro m b a tte ry pro duc tio n)

T a ke a wa ys F inal Re sults Vehicle Total Cost Cost Per Mile Lifetime Tons CO2e kg CO2e Per Mile $30,276.49 $0.29 39.47 0.38 Ford Focus $28,844.43 $0.28 27.01 0.26 Toyota Prius $33,088.41 $0.32 25.01 0.24 Toyota Prius Prime $33,712.58 $0.32 21.26 0.20 Nissan Leaf $39,436.92 $0.38 24.33 0.23 Nissan Leaf Plus BE Vs mo re c o st c o mpe titive tha n purc ha sing pric e indic a te s  No ve hic le ha s “ze ro e missio ns”  T  ho ug h BE Vs in Ne w E ng la nd c a n c ut e missio ns b y 46%  HE Vs ha ve lo we st to ta l c o sts a nd c a n re duc e e missio ns b y 22% c o mpa re d to I CVs

Additio na l Co nside ra tio ns  E VSE inve stme nt de pe nde nt o n Electric Vehicle Service Equipment (EVSE)  Ba tte ry size  Driving ra ng e Leaf Plus 80% Charge EVSE Level Cost 1 Leaf 80% Charge Time Time  F le e t c e ntra liza tio n  Ve hic le Re lia b ility Level I 1 $500-$850 30+ hours 50+ hours  BE V ra ng e se nsitive to ve ry ho t/ c o ld te mpe ra ture s Level II 2 $3,000 8 hours 11.5 hours  0 ℉ : Ra ng e ma y dro p up to 36% D.C Fast Charging 2 $30,000+ 40 minutes 60 minutes  105 ℉ : Ra ng e ma y dro p up to 29% 1 . Costs and Level I charge times from (Howell, et al. 2017) L o ng ra ng e fle e t must b e d yna mic , c o nsisting  2 . Level II and D.C. Fast Charging data from Nissanusa.com o f a va rie ty o f ve hic le type s a nd E VSE le ve ls  Sho rt ra ng e fle e ts c a n inve st in sma ll b a tte ry BE Vs a nd L e ve l I E VSE to re d uc e to ta l c o sts

Que stio ns?  E ma il Na tha n Pe a b o dy a t na p2000@ wildc a ts.unh.e du; with  F urthe r q ue stio ns  Cita tio ns  F o r c o mple te d the sis re po rt (Spring 2020)