Draft Official Plan Amendment 2016 Growth Projections, Employment Lands and the Agricultural Resource Area Bruce Finlay Planning, Infrastructure and Economic Development Dept City of Ottawa Phone 613 580-2424 ext 21850 Email planning@ottawa.ca October 2016 1 | P a g e
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Draft Official Plan Amendment 2016 The following Table and the attached Map schedules contain the proposed policy and designation changes proposed by this amendment in a manner that is more easily understood. Once Council has adopted this amendment it will be converted into the proper by-law format. How to read the following text: Regular Text In Column 1 is policy as approved and reflecting the changes made by OPA 150 (under appeal) Strikeout Text in Column 1 is text or policy that is proposed to be deleted or replaced by this amendment. Bold black Text in Column 2 is new text or policy proposed by this amendment Section Column 1 - Official Plan as Amended by OPA 150 - 2013 Column 2 - Draft Official Plan Amendment - 2016 2.1 – Patterns of Growth 2.1 – Patterns of Growth Figure 2.1 Figure 2.1 2.1 The Geography of Growth The Geography of Growth I s amended to replace Figure 2.1 Growth in Numbers Growth in Numbers The projected growth to 2036 in population, households and employment (by place of work) is shown The projected growth to 2031 in population, households and employment (by place of work) is shown in Figure 2.2 for urban areas inside and outside the Greenbelt and for the rural area. in Figure 2.2 for urban areas inside and outside the Greenbelt and for the rural area. Figure 2.2 Figure 2.2 Projected Growth in Population, Households and Employment, City of Projected Growth in Population, Households and Employment, City of Ottawa, 2011 to 2036 Ottawa, 2006 to 2031 Population Population 2011 2021 2031 2036 2006 2011 2021 2031 Inside Greenbelt 540,000 562,000 592,000 609,000 Inside Greenbelt 533,000 540,000 562,000 591,000 3 | P a g e
Section Column 1 - Official Plan as Amended by OPA 150 - 2013 Column 2 - Draft Official Plan Amendment - 2016 Outside Greenbelt, Outside Greenbelt, 252,000 291,000 367,000 432,000 291,000 367,000 450,000 488,000 Urban Urban Rural 86,000 91,000 102,000 113,000 Rural 91,000 102,000 112,000 117,000 Total 871,000 923,000 1,031,000 1,136,000 Total 923,000 1,031,000 1,154,000 1,214,000 Households Households 2006 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031 2036 Inside Greenbelt 228,000 237,000 258,000 278,000 Inside Greenbelt 237,000 258,000 270,000 278,000 Outside Greenbelt, Outside Greenbelt, 88,000 106,000 140,000 168,000 106,000 140,000 170,000 186,000 Urban Urban Rural 30,000 32,000 38,000 43,000 Rural 32,000 38,000 40,500 43,000 Total 346,000 376,000 436,000 489,000 Total 376,000 436,000 480,000 506,000 Employment Employment 2006 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031 2036 566,000 Inside Greenbelt 432,000 457,000 482,000 506,000 Inside Greenbelt 457,000 482,000 545,000 Outside Greenbelt, Outside Greenbelt, 72,000 95,000 128,000 162,000 95,000 128,000 134,000 145,000 Urban Urban 33,000 34,500 Rural 25,000 26,000 30,000 35,000 Rural 26,000 30,000 Total 530,000 578,000 640,000 703,000 Total 578,000 640,000 711,000 745,000 Notes: 1. Totals may not add due to rounding Notes: 1. Totals may not add due to rounding 2. 2006 figures are estimated actual; other years are projections 2. 2011 figures are actual ; other years are projections 3. Population and households are adjusted for Census undercounting. 3. Population and households are adjusted for Census undercounting. Population includes institutional residents; households exclude Population includes institutional residents; households exclude institutional residents. institutional residents. 4. 2006 employment based on City of Ottawa Employment Survey, adjusted for undercounting. 4. 2011 employment based on City of Ottawa Employment Survey, adjusted for undercounting. Ottawa’s population is projected to grow by up to 32 per cent by 2036 compared to 2011 , reaching an Ottawa’s population is projected to grow by up to 30 per cent by 2031 compared to 2006, reaching an estimated 1.2 million people. Growth will largely depend on the city’s continuing ability to attract a estimated 1.1 million people. Growth will largely depend on the city’s continuing ability to attract a share of immigration, which accounted for almost three-quarters of net migration to the city in the 2005 share of immigration, which accounted for almost three-quarters of net migration to the city in the 2000 to 2105 period. As the population increases, it is expected to become more diverse. to 2010 period. As the population increases, it is expected to become more diverse. Through time, the city’s population will also include more seniors. The share of the population that is Through time, the city’s population will also include more seniors. The share of the population that is 65 65 and over is expected to increase from about 13 per cent in 2011 to over 21 per cent by 2036 . As and over is expected to increase from about 13 per cent in 2011 to over 20 per cent by 2031. As the the baby-boomers age and their children leave home, both parents and children will form smaller baby-boomers age and their children leave home, both parents and children will form smaller households and create additional demand for housing. households and create additional demand for housing. Much of the demand for new housing is expected to be for smaller units, such as apartments. Within Much of the demand for new housing is expected to be for smaller units, such as apartments. Within the Greenbelt, where about one-third of the housing growth is expected to occur, most new housing the Greenbelt, where about one-third of the housing growth is expected to occur, most new housing development will be in the form of apartments. However, almost two-thirds of the added housing development will be in the form of apartments. However, almost two-thirds of the added housing stock stock will be located outside the Greenbelt. Many of the new dwellings there will be in the form of will be located outside the Greenbelt. Many of the new dwellings there will be in the form of detached detached homes, but at least 40 per cent will be either townhouses or apartments. The rural area is homes, but at least 40 per cent will be either townhouses or apartments. The rural area is expected to 4 | P a g e
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