SLIDO – Interaction Tool Gas Operational Forum – October 2017 Log on wifi Open Network: RadissonBlu Please ensure Please ensure Join at you register at you register at the table at the the table at the Slido.com back of the back of the room room #gasoct 1
Gas Operational Forum 19 th October 2017 09:30AM Radisson Blu Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London
Health & Safety Brief No fire alarm testing is planned for today. In the case of an alarm, please follow the fire escape signs to the evacuation point. At the rear of the hotel by Fitzroy Court 3
Agenda 09:30 - Previous Ops Forum Actions 09:35 - Operational Overview Supply Breakdown Demand Breakdown 09:45 – Winter Outlook Report 09:55 – Future Energy Scenario Framework 10:00 - UNC Modifications/Topics from Transmission Work Group 10:10 - Reviewing Communication Process 10:15 – Change Programme (GB REMIT, MIPI DR TEST, MIPI STATISTICS) 10:30 – Break 10:45 – Customer & Stakeholder Feedback 11:15 – AOB 11:30 - Close 4
Actions From Previous Forums Discussion Topic Action Due Date NG to provide details of next Gas Quality Consultation and summarise covered October Ops Forum Gas Quality Consultation content. Following discussion, it was agreed that NG would seek to re-categorise the storage Operational Overview October Ops Forum figures as these are currently presented in a number of slides as one category (MRS & LRS combined). NG to explore recent re-nomination behaviour and update industry at a future October/November Update on UIG Operational Forum. Following session NG has promised to collate all feedback provided during the Xoserve Service Desk November Ops Forum session and update customers at next Operational Forum. 5
ACTION Update: Re-nominations ACTION: NG to explore recent re-nomination behaviour and update industry National Grid maintain an overview of shipper behaviour and take action when this leads to inefficiency in the market, actions range from formal letters to ad hoc phone calls. Examples of recent behaviour monitoring undertaken: • Monitoring and contacting shipper’s at non - IP’s to challenge behaviour with regard to NIFR. • Ongoing discussions with DN’s regarding accuracy of NDMA forecast. In light of concerns on re-nominations NG have reinstated the functionality for NIFR at Bacton IP’s and will continue to develop our monitoring of the wider nominations area; we welcome feedback regarding improvements you’d like to see. A more detailed update will be provided at the January Ops Forum in line with feedback received. 6
Operational Overview Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Operational Forum – October 2017 Karen Thompson
Gas Supply ly Breakd kdown own 1 st st August st 2016 to 30 30 th th Septe tembe mber r 2017 vs s Previ evious us Year r 400 350 300 250 mcm 200 150 100 50 0 Gas Day UKCS Norwegian LNG BBL LRS MRS IUK Previous Year Supply 8
Gas Supply ly Breakd kdown own 1 st st April l 2017 to 30 th th Septemb tember er 2017 vs s same e period od over the previ viou ous s 6 years rs 100% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 1% 2% 6% 6% 6% 7% 90% 9% 15% 18% 15% 20% 80% 21% 31% 70% 38% 35% 32% 60% 30% 28% 23% 18% 50% 40% 30% 48% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 43% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 9 UKCS Norwegian LNG Interconnectors Storage
Gas Supply ly Map 1st April il 2017 2017 to 30 30 th th Septemb ember r 2017 vs Same me Period od Last t Year To be updated 10
NTS Supply ply Summe mer r (mcm mcm): 1 st st April ril 2017 17 to 30 30 th th Septembe tember r 2017 17 Summer r Actu tual l Entry try Min Max Avg Comments ts Range Apr 2016 – Sep 2016 • Easington Terminal has increased from an average flow of 31.26mcm/d in the period Apr to 30 th Sept 2016 to an average flow 53.1 110.7 92.8 45- 107 of 42.60mcm in Apr to 30 th Sept 2017. This increase has been due to an increase in Norwegian continental shelf flows via Langeled. • LNG average flow 17.76mcm/d in the period Apr to 30 th Sept 2017 27.2 108.5 73.8 44 - 111 compared to 29.04mcm/d in the same period last year; this relates to increased competition in the LNG market, and therefore a reduction in cargos seen to the UK which drove lower flows. 0.0 2.5 0.1 0 - 23 • Bacton Interconnector average Imports <1mcm/d in the period Apr INTERCONNEC TORS BBL BBL to 30 th Sept 2017 compared to 3.0mcm/d in the period Apr to 30 th Sept 2017 . Minimal BBL imports were seen during the 2017 period. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 - 5 • Barrow Terminal has been on outage since mid February. INTERCONNEC TORS IUK Entry try Min Max Avg 5.0 43.7 17.7 5 - 62 Actual Supply 131.4 305.6 194.9 0.0 68.8 10.5 0 - 39 Actual Supply Exc. 130.6 240.7 184.5 Storage 11
Gas De Demand d Breakd kdown own 1 st st August st 2016 2016 to 30 th th Septe tembe mber r 2017 vs s Previ evious us Year r 400 350 300 250 mcm 200 150 100 50 0 NDM DM (Exc Interconnectors & Powerstations) Powerstations Total Interconnector Export MRS Previous Years Actual Demand SND 12
Gas De Demand d Breakd kdown own 1 st st April l 2017 to 30 30 th th Septemb tember er 2017 vs s same e period od over the previ viou ous s 6 years rs 100% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 7% 90% 10% 9% 10% 11% 15% 80% 19% 24% 18% 20% 23% 22% 15% 70% 60% 19% 19% 27% 25% 24% 20% 50% 26% 40% 30% 48% 46% 43% 42% 41% 41% 20% 36% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LDZ Powerstation Interconnectors Storage Injection Industrial 13
Gas Supply ly / De Demand d Interco terconn nnect ectors ors 1 st st Septe tembe mber r 2016 to o 30 30 th th Septemb tember er 2017 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 mcm -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 Moffat Export IUK BBL Import Net 14
Gas Co Consumpti mption for Powe wer r Generati ration 1 st st Septe tembe mber r 2016 to 30 30 th th Septe tembe mber r 2017 vs s Same Period od Last Year 100 90 80 70 60 mcm 50 40 30 20 10 0 Actual for Power Generation Previous Year 15
NTS Demand mand Summer mmer (mcm mcm): 1 st st April ril 2017 17 to 30 30 th th Septemb tember er 2017 17 Summer r Summer r Actu tual l Outl tlook k Exit Min Max Avg Comments ts Range Range Apr 2016 – Sep 2016 Apr 2017 – Sep 2017 • IUK Exports during the period April – 30 th Sept 2017 are 32 – 140 significantly larger than the same period last year 49.1 171.6 79.8 47- 183 (NDM) (average 38.7mcm/d vs 28mcm/d). We believe this is LDZ due to Rough storage facility being unavailable meaning supply volumes have been diverted to IUK exports. 2.9 19.4 8.4 7 - 9 2 - 16 INTERCONNECTORS Ireland • There has been more volatility in Powerstation demand during the period April – 30 th Sept 2017 than the same period in 2016, resulting in a lower min and a higher max 18 - 26 6- 15 7.4 13.0 9.4 demand. We believe this is due to both the increase in (DM + Ind) (DM + Ind) renewable generation sources and reduction in coal INDUSTRIAL generation sources meaning gas is the primary flexible generation source. 17.8 75.6 48.4 8 - 81 24 - 72 POWERSTATION 2017 7 Summer er 0.0 47.2 9.9 7 - 9 0 – 66 Exit Min Max Avg ge Outl utloo ook k Range STORAGE INJECTION Demand exc. 76 - 241 91.9 262.1 146.0 IUK & SI 0 59.3 38.7 0 - 46 0 – 56 SND exc. IUK INTERCONNECTORS 100.0 236.0 144.0 & SI IUK 16
Storag rage e Stocks: cks: LRS RS Positi ition on as at 30 30 th th Septe tembe mber r 2017 45 40 35 30 25 twh 20 15 10 5 0 LRS 2016/2017 LRS 2015/2016 LRS 2014/2015 LRS 2013/2014 17
Storag rage e Stocks: cks: MRS RS Positi ition on as at 30 30 th th Septe tembe mber r 2017 16 14 12 10 twh 8 6 4 2 0 MRS 2016/2017 MRS 2015/2016 MRS 2014/2015 MRS 2013/2014 18
Capacity Ca ity Ne Neutrali rality: y: 1st t April il 20 2017 to 30th September ember 2017 Apr 17 to Apr 16 Revenue / Costs Comments Sep 17 Sep 16 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue -£421,512 -£339,811 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational £293,495 £0 Costs * Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue data not yet available Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue -£1,469,424* -£521,054 for September 2017 To be updated Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£1,287 -£2,624 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 £0 Net Revenue -£1,598,728 -£866,489 APX Market rket Pric ices es (p/th) th) Ne Net Balan lancing ing Co Costs ts Min / Max SAP SAP SMPB SMPS Imbalanc nce Schedu duling ng OCM OCM Net Net Apr 17 to April 2017 £15,158,315 £7,298,832 £1,714,887 £9,574,369 26.1 - 49.3 27.3 – 50.4 24.9 - 48.1 Sep 17 to Aug 2017 (CR) (DB) (CR) (CR) Apr 16 to 21.0 - 37.7 22.2 - 39.0 19.9 - 36.6 Sep16 19
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