Forum Detailed Slides London Radisson Grafton 25 th October 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Gas Operational Forum – Detailed Slides London Radisson Grafton 25 th October 2018

01 Gas Prices, Transporter Actions and Neutrality October 2018

Summary Report YEAR TO DATE PERCENTAGES AGAINST BUYS AND SELLS FOR SEPTEMBER (2017 - 2018) Sep-17 Sep-18 No. of Balancing Actions YTD 138 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 178 Percentage Buys 102 74% Buys 81 46% Sells 36 26% Sells 97 54% National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 3

UK Gas Prices 1 st September 2017 to 30 September 2018 vs Previous Year 510 460 410 360 310 p/therm 260 210 160 110 60 10 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 4

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM NGG Monthly Buys and Sells 1 st September 2017 to 30 th September 2018 vs Previous Year 600 700 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 Gwh 0 0 -100 -100 -200 -200 -300 -300 -400 -400 -500 -500 -600 -600 -700 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Buy 2017/18 Buy Prev Year Sell 2017/18 Sell Prev Year National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 5

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPB) September 2017 to September 2018 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 6

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPS) September 2017 to August 2018 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 7

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) August 2018 18,000,000 Net Debit 640,588 16,000,000 £868,197 14,000,000 3,132,546 12,000,000 294,434 10,000,000 £ 8,000,000 15,787,311 12,132,723 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Credits Debits National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 8

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) August 2018 Aug-18 -15,787,311 Imbalance Payment £ [DCS] 12,132,723 Charge £ [DCT] 9,930 Scheduling Exit Charge £ [DXS] Exit Charge £ [EXS] 86,749 197,755 Entry Charge £ [ESC] -640,588 OCM Payment £ [TTB] 3,132,546 Charge £ [TTS] -868,197 Balancing Costs National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 9

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs OCM Payments / Charges August 2018 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 £ 400,000 200,000 0 -200,000 -400,000 01/08/2018 08/08/2018 15/08/2018 22/08/2018 29/08/2018 Payment [TTB] Charge £ [TTS] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 10

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Imbalance Payments / Charges August 2018 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 £ -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 -2,000,000 01/08/2018 08/08/2018 15/08/2018 22/08/2018 29/08/2018 Payment £ [DCS] Charge £ [DCT] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 11

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Scheduling Charges August 2018 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 £ 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 01/08/2018 08/08/2018 15/08/2018 22/08/2018 29/08/2018 Exit Charge £ [DXS] Entry Charge £ [ESC] Exit Charge £ [EXS] Day National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 12

Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue 1 st April 2018 to 30 th September 2018 Revenue/Costs -£333,454 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue £989,415 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue* -£233,217* Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£2,310 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 Net Revenue £370,434 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 13

Capacity Neutrality Revenue 1 st April 2018 to 30 th September 2018 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ Bacton UKCS Easington St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Other £- -£149 -£752 -£1,211 -£30,497 £(50,000.00) -£66,191 £(100,000.00) £(150,000.00) £(200,000.00) -£234,654 £(250,000.00) Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 14

02 Operational Overview – Supply, Demand & Storage October 2018

NTS Demand Unseasonably high temperatures during parts of April and May saw summer demand drop below seasonal normal. Since then NTS demand returned to expected levels and stayed consistent compared to levels of demand seen last year. National Grid Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 16

Components of NTS Demand With gas year 2017- 18 now concluded , demand profiles for the summer remained largely consistent compared to last year The exception to this was IUK exports, which were lower than last year, particularly during the first half of Summer. National Grid Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 17

Components of NTS Supply Whilst most sources of supply remained consistent compared to last year, supplies from LNG reduced significantly . Relatively high gas prices in the Asian markets could be a key driver for this change. National Grid Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 18

Location of NTS Supply Proportionally, there has been less gas supplied to the NTS in the North , when compared to last Summer. National Grid Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 19

Medium Range Storage Stocks (MRS) October-End September for last 5 years 18 16 14 12 10 twh 8 6 4 2 0 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 MRS 2017/2018 MRS 2016/2017 MRS 2015/2016 MRS 2014/2015 MRS 2013/2014 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 25th October 2018 20