Gas Operational Forum 23 rd February 2017 10:30AM Radisson Blu - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Gas Operational Forum 23 rd February 2017 10:30AM Radisson Blu Hotel, 130 Tottenham Court Road, London

Agenda  10:30 - Previous Ops Forum Actions  10:35 - Operational Overview  Supply & Demand  10:45 - UNC Modifications  10:50 - Maintenance  11:00 - Xoserve Funding Governance & Ownership  11:10 - Gemini Consequential Change  11:25 – Gas Planning Operating Standards  11:40 - Electronic Notifications , GB REMIT, MIPI  11:50 – Break  12:00 – Constraint Management Overview  Scenario work through  12:45 - AOB  Emergency Planning 2

Health & Safety Brief No fire alarm testing is planned for today. In the case of an alarm, please follow the fire escape signs to the evacuation point. At the rear of the hotel by Fitzroy Court 3

SLIDO – Interaction Tool Gas Operational Forum – February 2017 Join at Slido.com #6482 4

Actions From Previous Forums Discussion Topic Action It was agreed that National Grid would bring back some examples of timings and the factors that are taken into Capacity Release consideration around the release of within day capacity. NG to share how the price of the capacity product does / Unplanned Outages or doesn't feed into our REMIT unplanned outage process. Requested to provide an overview of the 2017 Maintenance Update Maintenance plans. 5

Operational Overview Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Operational Forum – February 2017 Karen Thompson

Gas Supply ly Breakd kdown own 1st Janua anuary ry 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 vs Same ame Period od in Previous vious Years rs 400 350 300 250 mcm 200 150 100 50 0 Gas Day UKCS Norwegian LNG BBL LRS MRS IUK SRS Previous Year Supply 7

Gas Supply ly Breakd kdown own 1st January ary 2016 to 31st st January ary 2017 vs Previ evious us Year r 100% 5% 7% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 8% 5% 90% 12% 10% 13% 8% 14% 13% 3% 80% 16% 10% 7% 8% 19% 70% 60% 41% 30% 37% 37% 38% 24% 36% 50% 40% 30% 42% 20% 39% 38% 38% 36% 34% 33% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8 UKCS Norwegian LNG Interconnectors Storage

Gas Supply ly Map 1st Octob tober er 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 vs Same me Period iod Last t Year r 9

NTS Supply ply Win inter er (mcm mcm): 1st Octobe ober r 2016 16 to 31st st Janua nuary ry 2017 17 Winte ter Actu tual l Range Entry try Min Max Avg Comments ts Oct 2015 – Mar 2016 • St Fergus flows have continued to remain high in Jan 2017 [flows averaged 105.6 mcm/d – Jan 16 flows averaged 69.3 mcm/d]; this is 45- 118 89.4 132.1 109.1 believed to relate to the UKCS field at Rhum. • LNG average flow are significantly reduced from last year with Global LNG Demand from Asia being much higher than anticipated. 44 - 118 66.8 134.3 119.3 0 - 33 1.9 44.8 18.8 INTERCONNEC TORS BBL BBL 0 - 14 INTERCONNEC 0.0 51.3 16.3 TORS IUK Entry try Min Max Avg 6 - 59 5.0 21.3 7.9 Actu tual l Supply ly 189 362 275 Actu tual l Supply ly Exc. . 184 321 263 0 - 98 0.0 88.2 17.8 Storag rage STORAGE WITHDRAWAL 10

Gas De Demand d Breakd kdown own 1st January ary 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 vs Previ reviou ous s Year 400 350 300 250 mcm 200 150 100 50 0 NDM DM (Exc Interconnectors & Powerstations) Powerstations Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection Previous Years Actual Demand 11 SND

Gas De Demand d Breakd kdown own 1 st st January ary 2016 to o 31 st st January ry 2017 vs Same me Period od in Previous vious Years 100% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 90% 6% 10% 7% 9% 15% 13% 80% 14% 15% 24% 16% 19% 17% 17% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72% 70% 68% 64% 65% 62% 62% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12

Gas Supply ly / De Demand d Interco terconn nnect ectors ors 1st January ary 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 mcm -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 13 Moffat Export IUK BBL Import Net

Gas Supply ly / De Demand d Storag rage 1st January ary 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 120 100 80 60 40 mcm 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 14 Withdrawal Injection

Gas Co Consumpti mption for Powe wer r Generati ration 1st January ary 2016 to 31st t January ary 2017 vs Same Period iod Last t Year 100 90 80 70 60 mcm 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 Actual for Power Generation Previous Year

NTS Demand mand Win inter er (mcm): mcm): 1st Octob ober er 2016 16 to 31s 1st Janua nuary y 2017 17 Winte ter Outl tlook k Winte ter Actu tual l Exit Min Max Avg Commen mments ts Range Range Oct 2016 – Mar 2017 Oct 2015 – Mar 2016 • High Power station demands continue due to increased EU electricity exports. 90.3 280.1 185.9 107 - 336 82 - 256 LDZ • IUK demand remains low with IUK continuing to import. (Average this winter 5 mcm/d vs 24mcm/d for same period last year.) 0.0 16.1 9.2 6 - 10 7 - 21 INTERCONNECTORS Ireland 19 - 36 8 - 12 8.1 12.9 11.3 (DM + Ind) (DM + Ind) INDUSTRIAL 24.1 94.0 69.1 19 - 90 20 - 78 POWERSTATION Winte ter Outlo tlook k Exit Min Max Avg Range 2016 2016-17 17 0.0 74.2 8.8 0 - 45 0 - 47 STORAGE INJECTION Deman and d exc. c. 189 - 452 158.6 368.6 259.0 IUK & SI 0.0 28.1 3.7 0 - 30 0 - 42 SND exc. c. INTERCONNECTORS 144.0 289.0 236.2 IUK & SI IUK 16

Storag rage e Stocks: cks: LRS RS Positi ition on as at 31st January ry 2017 45 40 35 30 25 twh 20 15 10 5 0 17 LRS 2016/2017 LRS 2015/2016 LRS 2014/2015 LRS 2013/2014

Storag rage e Stocks: cks: MRS RS Positi ition on as at 31st January ry 2017 16 14 12 10 twh 8 6 4 2 0 18 MRS 2016/2017 MRS 2015/2016 MRS 2014/2015 MRS 2013/2014

Ca Capacity ity Ne Neutrali rality: y: 1 st st April il 20 2016 to 31 st st January ary 2017 Apr 16 to Apr 15 Revenue / Costs ts Comments ts Jan 17 Jan 16 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue -£854,765 -£288,569 £0 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs £0 * Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue data not yet Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue -£1,214,293 * -£537,806 available for January 2017 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£51,170 -£210,206 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £-14,249 £0 Net Revenue -£2,134,477 -£1,036,574 APX Market rket Pric ices es (p/th th) Ne Net Balan lancing ing Co Costs ts Min / Max SAP SAP SMPB SMPS Imbalanc nce Schedu duling ng OCM OCM Net Net Apr r 16 21 - 53.7 22.2 - 55 19.9 - 52.6 to Dec c 16 Apr 16 to £1,941,550 £2,160,798 £5,347,412 £9,449,760 (CR) Apr 15 Oct 16 (CR) (CR) (CR) 29 - 52.4 30.1 - 55 27.9 - 51.1 to Jan 16 19

Energy gy Balan lancing ing: : 1st April il 2016 to 31st t January ry 2017 Apr 16 to Apr 15 to NGG Balancing Action tions Comments ts Jan 17 Jan 16 • Sell actions have significantly increased / Buy actions 45 (39%) 106 (67%) Buy Actions reduced for the period compared to same period last year. 69 (61%) 52 (33%) Sell Actions • There have been 22 Sell actions in Winter 2016 693 1556 Buy Actions [Volume: Gwh] [Oct: 3, Nov: 9, Dec: 10]. Sell Actions [Volume: Gwh] -1631 -863 • There have been 7 Buy Actions in Winter 2016 114 158 Number of Balancing Actions [Oct: 2, Nov: 1, Dec: 4]. 5% 9% NGG set Default Marginal Prices [SMPB: Average %] NGG set Default Marginal Prices [SMPS: Average %] 6% 4% 20

UNC Modifications/Topics from Transmission Work Group Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. Operational Forum – February 2017 Karen Thompson

UNC Modification 0600S  Available for public consultation 17 th February – 9 th March  For details on the Modification and an opportunity to respond to the proposed changes: http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/0600  The following changes are proposed to UNC TPD Section E 1.4.2:  Retain the D+5 deadline for Entry Point Daily Quantity Delivered (EPDQD) amendments  Amendments after 10:00 on M+15 will no longer be permitted  Amendments submitted between D+5 and 10:00 on M+15 will be accepted at the discretion of National Grid, and will be exercised in a way which avoids any undue preference or discrimination.  National Grid may also enquire why any revision is submitted after D+5, and may use the results of this enquiry to propose improvements to the timely and accurate revision for EPDQD amendments in future 22

UNC Modification 0606 & 0607S  Mod 0606 – ( NGG and NGGD transitional invoicing)  Final discussion will take place at Distribution working group towards the end of February  Mod 0607S (Amendments to GQ NTS Spec at St Fergus) - 2 Workgroup meetings have been held so far with the third scheduled for 28 th February  The Modification proposes to allow an increase in the carbon dioxide limit at the NSMP system entry point at St Fergus from 4% to 5.5%  National Grid NTS is to provide historical flow and CO 2 data at St Fergus for the Workgroup  BP’s presentation and minutes of the meeting can be found at http://www.gasgovernance.co.uk/0607/050117 23