Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 27 th September 2018 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 27 th September 2018

Gas Prices, Transporter Actions and Neutrality September 2018

Summary Report YEAR TO DATE PERCENTAGES AGAINST BUYS AND SELLS FOR JUNE - AUGUST (2017 - 2018) Jun-17 Jun-18 No. of Balancing Actions YTD 76 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 137 Percentage Buys 40 53% Buys 63 46% Sells 36 47% Sells 74 54% Jul-17 Jul-18 No. of Balancing Actions YTD 92 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 143 Percentage Buys 56 61% Buys 63 44% Sells 36 39% Sells 80 56% Aug-17 Aug-18 No. of Balancing Actions YTD 115 Percentage No. of Balancing Actions YTD 160 Percentage Buys 79 69% Buys 68 43% Sells 36 31% Sells 92 57% National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 3

UK Gas Prices 1 st August 2017 to 31 August 2018 vs Previous Year 510 460 410 360 310 p/therm 260 210 160 110 60 10 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 SAP SMPB SMPS Previous Year SAP National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 4

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCM NGG Monthly Buys and Sells 1 st August 2017 to 31 st August 2018 vs Previous Year National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 5

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPB) August 2017 to August 2018 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 6

Days of Default SMP Prices (SMPS) August 2017 to August 2018 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 7

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) May - July 2018 70,000,000 Net Credit 60,000,000 £10,241,356.23 6,650,183 50,000,000 1,098,905 3,649,286 40,000,000 £ 30,000,000 50,298,851 44,157,296 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Credits Debits National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 8

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit (Imbalance / Scheduling / OCM) May - July 2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Imbalance Payment £ [DCS] -18,290,997 -13,043,299 -12,823,001 Charge £ [DCT] 21,658,417 15,576,351 13,064,082 Scheduling Exit Charge £ [DXS] 18,248 8,792 0 Exit Charge £ [EXS] 97,305 85,197 0 Entry Charge £ [ESC] 487,615 401,748 0 OCM Payment £ [TTB] -1,155,777 -2,493,509 0 Charge £ [TTS] 4,540,318 877,657 1,232,208 Balancing Costs 7,355,130 1,412,938 1,473,289 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 9

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs OCM Payments / Charges May - July 2018 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 £ 0 -200,000 -400,000 -600,000 -800,000 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 10/07/2018 24/07/2018 Payment [TTB] Charge £ [TTS] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 10

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Imbalance Payments / Charges May - July 2018 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 £ -500,000 -1,000,000 -1,500,000 -2,000,000 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 10/07/2018 24/07/2018 Payment £ [DCS] Charge £ [DCT] National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 11

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Scheduling Charges May - July 2018 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 £ 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 01/05/2018 15/05/2018 29/05/2018 12/06/2018 26/06/2018 Exit Charge £ [DXS] Entry Charge £ [ESC] Exit Charge £ [EXS] Day National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 12

Capacity Neutrality Net Cost / Revenue 1 st April 2018 to 31 st August 2018 Revenue/Costs -£293,323 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue £720,247 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue* -£123,521* Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£1,943 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 Net Revenue £301,460 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 13

Capacity Neutrality Revenue 1 st April 2018 to 31 st August 2018 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ Bacton UKCS Easington St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Other £- -£628 -£149 -£1,211 -£26,507 £(50,000.00) -£57,587 £(100,000.00) £(150,000.00) £(200,000.00) -£207,241 £(250,000.00) Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 14

Operational Overview – Supply, Demand & Storage September 2018

NTS Demand Following some periods of volatility in the first half of the Summer, NTS demand has now returned to expected levels. National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 16

Components of NTS Demand After the volatility at the start of Summer, LDZ demand has now returned to the same levels as last year. IUK exports have been lower than last year, particularly during the first half of Summer. National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 17

Components of NTS Supply Aside from some brief fluctuations, levels of supply from UKCS and Norway have been as expected. Apart from a brief period at the start of Summer, LNG supplies have been significantly lower than last year. National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 18

Location of NTS Supply Proportionally, there has been less gas supplied to the NTS in the North , when compared to last Summer. National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 19

Medium Range Storage Stocks (MRS) October-End September for last 5 years 18 16 14 12 10 twh 8 6 4 2 0 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 MRS 2017/2018 MRS 2016/2017 MRS 2015/2016 MRS 2014/2015 MRS 2013/2014 National Grid | Operational Forum Meeting 27th September 2018 20

Capacity Neutrality Overview September 2018

st April st August Capacity city Neutral rality: ity: 1 st il 2018 to 31 st st 2018 Apr 18 to Apr 17 to Revenue / Costs Comments Aug 18 Aug 17 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue -£293,323 -£377,412 Total Entry Constraint Management Operational £720,247 £2,036,738 Costs * Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue data not yet available Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue -£123,521 -£1,438,620 for August 2018 Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£1,943 -£1,039 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges £0 £0 Net Revenue £301,460 £219,667 National Grid 2 22 2

2 3 Capacity city Neutra trality lity Net t Cost t / / Reven enue ue st April st August 1 st l 2018 to o 31 st st 2018 Revenue/Costs -£293,323 WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs £720,247 Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue* -£123,521* Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only) -£1,943 £0 Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges Net Revenue £301,460 National Grid 23

2 4 Capacity city Neutra trality lity st April st August 1 st l 2018 18 to 31 st st 2018 Entry Cap Overrun Non-obligated sales Locational Sells and Month Month Revenue revenue (entry) PRI charges revenue Apr-18 -£11,822 -£2 Apr-18 £0 May-18 -£59,465 -£655 May-18 £0 Jun-18 -£22,460 Jun-18 -£592 Jul-18 -£29,775 Jul-18 -£534 Aug-18 Aug-18 -£162 Sep-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Jan-19 Feb-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Mar-19 Total -£123,521 -£1,943 Total £0 (FY18/19) National Grid 24

2 5 Net t Capaci city ty Neutra trali lity ty Reven enue st April st August 1 st l 2018 to o 31 st st 2018 Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ Bacton UKCS Easington St Fergus Teesside Theddlethorpe Other £- -£628 -£149 -£1,211 -£26,507 £(50,000.00) -£57,587 £(100,000.00) £(150,000.00) £(200,000.00) -£207,241 £(250,000.00) Net Capacity Neutrality Revenue (WDDSEC + DAI) £ National Grid 25

National Grid Balancing Actions September 2018

National Grid Balancing Actions – FY17/18 and FY18/19 • Chart shows the % of Gas Days where National Grid took residual Buy Days, Sell Days and no action for current YTD and Previous Year to same date. • For same period for both years (April – 26 th September): - NG has taken more Sell Actions in FY18/19 (33) compared to 11 for FY17/18 - And Less Buy Actions in FY18/19 (24) compared to 52 in FY17/18. - Overall % of No Actions day similar (120 in FY17/18 compared to 121) National Grid 27

SMP Buy Difference from Default Price • Chart shows the distribution of difference (in p) of SMP Buy Prices from default SMP(S) for FY 16/17 to 18/19 • Charts show NG has not drastically changed practices and impacting market prices with actions. • However insufficient data for 18/19 as NG has set SMP (B) on only 8 occasions so far this year. National Grid 28