Gas Operational Forum London Radisson Grafton 14 th February 2019
Health & Safety Warren Room Fire Exits No Fire Alarm testing is planned for today There are 4 fire exits in the Warren Room, as shown be the map below In case of an alarm, -please follow the fire escape signs to the evacuation point This is at the rear of the Hotel by Fitzroy Square National Grid 2
Feedback & Questions For any questions during the forum you can: • Ask during the presentations • Speak to an NG representative during the break • Utilise the Query Surgery time at the end of the Forum National Grid 3
Contents page 01 09:30 Previous Operational Forum Actions and Feedback since Last Forum Breaks: 02 BEIS update on Brexit 09:40 03 09:50 Operational Overview Morning Break Interesting Day – 23 rd January 04 10:00 10:15 – 10:45 05 10:45 Gas Markets Plan Lunch Break & Query Surgery 06 Feedback from last forum breakout session 11:05 12:10 onwards 07 Xoserve – Updates 11:15 08 11:25 Operational Data Enhancements Signposting of information Update from Transmission Working Group Query Document directory Query management process 09 11:55 T2 Playback documents Capacity Auction FAQs GFOP NG Publications National Grid | Gas Operational Forum | February 2019 4
National Grid and Xoserve Attendees Customer & Stakeholder SO Strategy and Gas Operations Future Markets Relations Regulation • • • Stephanie O’Connor • Elaine Baker Helen Field Karen Thompson • Jon Davies • Martin Cahill • Harj Kandola National Grid | Gas Operational Forum | February 2019 5
Previous Actions Item Action Detail LNG Insight National Grid to aim to invite an industry Have had discussions on this, aiming to include as rep to discuss LNG at a future forum an agenda item at the forum in March or April Survey Breakout Share feedback from January breakout This is included in the agenda for today session on customer surveys If OPN has been accepted, and ‘rules’ Offtake Rules Covered on the next slide Question are then switched on, does this stay accepted? Check if ANS Industry to check if ANS details are up Can be checked at the following address: details are up to to date https://www.s2.emergencycallsecure.com/newlogin/ date National Grid | Gas Operational Forum | February 2019 6
OPN Rejections when ‘Rules’ are on If National Grid rejects an OPN, the prevailing (previously accepted) OPN stands. If we are in a constraint or forecast constraint situation and you submit an OPN that is requesting flexibility over and above your Network Exit Provisions and this could cause an operational balancing action, or worsen the situation we are in, we could reject. However, if a new OPN is stating that adjusted flows are beneficial and look to help mitigate the constraint situation, we are more likely to accept it. Rejections will be mostly related to increases for additional flexibility that we are not in a position to offer. National Grid | Gas Operational Forum | February 2019 7
Feedback Since Last Forum Feedback Description Actions Collaboration + Some fantastic feedback on the site More feedback needed from signed up site itself users. - Some issues with access + Inform NG of any access issues registration. This can be caused by Instantaneous Demand Trial data company firewall settings published on usual website also. National Grid | Gas Operational Forum | February 2019 8
02 Brexit Preparations Update BEIS
03 Operational Overview
Demand - Components The profile of demand seen so far this Winter is broadly similar to that of the same period last year. The changes observed so far this Winter are • increase in LDZ demand as a % of total demand; • decrease in the volume of IUK exports. • Decrease in Storage injection. National Grid 11
Supply - Components The most noticeable change so far this year is a pronounced increase in supplies from LNG. Compared to last year, we have seen a marked reduction in the proportion of gas being supplied from IUK and Storage. National Grid 12
Supply - Location With the increase in supply from LNG, the locational profile of supply has changed somewhat, with a larger proportion of gas in the South East and the West. National Grid 13
High Power Station Demand On Wednesday 23rd January, we recorded Power Station demand of 97mcm * which is the Highest since 2010 This came as part of 3 consecutive days of Power Station demand in excess of 90mcm. Relatively low levels of wind generation over the past week have led to an Prior to this week, Power Station demand of increased need for power generation. 90mcm or more had occurred on only 6 days since 2010. Given the current prices, whereby gas- On average, Power fired power generation is more efficient Station demand of greater than 90mcm than coal-fired, it has been the gas-fired occurs on only 1 in generation that has ramped up every 500 days. significantly. National Grid 14 * This number is still subject to settlement process
04 Operational Example – 23 rd January
What is a high demand day? 23 rd of January saw GNCC is the Gas National 402mcm: 2 nd highest Control Centre demand day since GNCC Strategy is focussed on ensuring a 2011 balance across the NTS, meeting required exit ‘Cold’ demand day in winter outlook was 407mcm pressures and ensuring Although this reads like a high demand day, no entry constraints operationally it was a low risk day Instantaneous demand reached 445mcm at peak National Grid 16
High Demand Challenges 23 rd Jan Supply and Demand • High Supply/Demand 460 differential means a 440 larger linepack swing 420 • Lower linepack means a 400 reduced network 380 flexibility 360 • 340 NTS must be configured to ensure exit pressures 320 met in every region Linepack Supply Demand • Higher pressure losses creates challenge to For more information about National Grid’s Linepack strategy, see agenda item in meet extremity exit November 2018 Forum obligations National Grid 17
Opening Linepack • Opening Linepack from 1 st October to 23 rd January OLP of 357.98 380 16 • This was a fairly strong 14 370 opening linepack for 12 360 winter, which was 10 350 sufficient even on a 8 340 particularly high demand 6 day 330 4 320 2 • Cold week in the lead up 310 0 to day meant linepack not 01-Oct 08-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 05-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 03-Dec 10-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 07-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan built up any more than this OLP 23rd OLP Temperature National Grid 18
National Grid 19
23 rd Jan 2019 88.7mcm 18.6mcm 5.2mcm 88.2mcm 1.2mcm 83.3mcm 35.0mcm 31.5mcm National Grid 20
23 rd Jan 2019 88.7mcm 18.6mcm East Coast 5.2mcm Compression used 88.2mcm for North to South 1.2mcm Transmission 83.3mcm Lower SE compression requirements 35.0mcm 31.5mcm National Grid 21
23 rd Jan 2019 88.7mcm 18.6mcm 12.9mcm 5.2mcm 88.2mcm 1.2mcm 1.6mcm 30.5mcm North West withdrawal helped to 83.3mcm meet demands NW LDZ Demand = 33.8mcm 6.7mcm 35.0mcm 31.5mcm National Grid 24
23 rd Jan 2019 88.7mcm 18.6mcm 12.9mcm 5.2mcm 88.2mcm 1.2mcm 1.6mcm 30.5mcm Milford flows meet SW demand 83.3mcm Wales South 12.8mcm 23.9mcm South West 15.9mcm West Midlands 23.9mcm 12.8mcm 6.7mcm 35.0mcm 31.5mcm 15.9mcm National Grid 25
1 st March 2018 65.5mcm Lower Scotland flows 10.0mcm 2.0mcm 35.1mcm Heavier flows from 82.1mcm 1.6mcm East 0.9mcm 4.3mcm 43.3mcm Majority of 107.4mcm Compressor Fleet required to manage exit pressures Around double the amount of 3.4mcm compressors utilised 29.0mcm 32.8mcm National Grid 26
Linepack comparison 1 st March linepack started • from a much lower 380 position, reducing 370 flexibility 360 350 Linepack • Steeper drop at the start 340 330 of the day due to supply 320 losses 310 300 • Total supply : 290 418.9 1 st March 280 403.3 23 rd January 23rd January 1st March National Grid 27
05 Gas Markets Plan (GMaP) and engagement
Why GMaP? Decarbonisation of Heat Decarbonisation of Decarbonisation of Transport Industry Future Networks & Carbon Capture Usage Whole Energy System Markets & Storage What is needed from here? … Gas Markets Plan ( GMaP) National Grid 29
What do stakeholders think of the GMaP concept? Who we engaged with in Summer 2018: Unanimous view that a forum • BEIS to discuss and agree such a • Ofgem plan would advance the energy • Scottish Government transition Strong support for NG developing • Welsh Government the plan and for a broad group of • Citizens Advice current and future industry • Energy UK participants to be engaged • Energy Networks Assoc 2-10 years represents the right period for the GMaP • Gas Distribution Networks • Wales & West Utilities The GMaP framework should be • Decarbonised Gas Alliance open to all interested parties, with • a clear route to input feedback Equinor • Cadent Some thought including an • Joint Office indication of cost, willingness to • Centrica pay etc. could lead to a more • Transmission WG realistic plan • Xoserve • Future Capacity & Balancing event • Presentations at RIIO-T2 Regional events National Grid 30
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