APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at The 11th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, February 19-20, 2005

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Presentation Agenda 1. Technology Database Development • Energy Technology Transitions in India • New and Renewable Technology Database • Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy Program 2. AIM/CGE Model Development • Model Data Inputs • Energy and Environment Security in South-Asia • South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios • Model Results 3. APEIS Project Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE Project

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Technology Database Development • Energy Technology Transitions in India • New and Renewable Technology Database • Linking Innovations with MDG: Assessment of India’s Bio-energy Program

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India India: Population, GDP and Energy Trends 280 Electricity Consumption 260 Energy consumption TPEC GDP at factor cost Indices, Base:1980=100 240 220 200 p.c.TPEC 180 160 Population 140 120 Energy Intensity of GDP 100 80 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Data Source: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and GoI Ministry reports

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Energy Transitions: Global & Indian 80% India 60% Percentage of PEC Non-commercial energy supply 40% Coal & LIgnite Oil 20% 100 Global Nuclear 90 Gas Traditional 80 Hydro 0% renewables Percentage of PEC 1 953-54 1 960-61 1 970-71 1 980-81 1 990-91 2001 -02 70 Coal 60 50 40 Oil 30 Coal Gas 20 10 Hydro Nuclear 0 1850 1900 1950 2000

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Energy Transition in Indian Railways 18000 10000 9000 16000 Coal usage (in 1000 tons) H) 8000 Electricity usage (GW 14000 7000 12000 6000 10000 5000 8000 4000 6000 3000 4000 2000 2000 1000 0 0 1970-71 1978-79 1986-87 1994-95 2002-03 Data Source: CSO, GoI and Indian Railways annual reports

Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India RET Classification Renewable Energy Renewable fuel Renewable heat Renewable electricity Biomass Stand alone Grid-connected Biomass Solar Residues Energy crops Residues Energy crops Biomass Wind PV Residues Energy crops Decentralised Centralised Biomass Wind PV PV Solar thermal Wind Biomass Residues Energy crops Residues Energy crops Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Stage of RET Development in India Stage of Market Development Pre- revenue Subsidy driven market Developed markets Scope/potential for contribution to N. Fusion Hydrogen India’s energy demand Biomass power Wind Solar PV Power Small Biofuels Hydro Solar thermal Geo- thermal Ocean energy Research Development Demonstration Deployment Mature Declining Stage of Technology Development

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India MDG, India’s National Targets, Biomass and Climate Change MDG and global targets India’s National plan targets Interface with Climate Change Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and Double the per capita income by 2012 Bio-energy can enhance rural income, substitute oil imports and hunger Reduce poverty ratio by 15% by 2012 enhance mitigative & adaptive Targets: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, Contain population growth to 16.2% between capacity the proportion of people with income 2001-2011 below $1 a day and those who suffer Lower population reduces pressure from hunger on land, water and energy consumption Goal 7: Ensure environmental Increase in forest cover to 25% by 2007 and Enhanced sink capacity; energy 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001) security due to substitution of sustainability fossil imports; reduced pressure on Targets: Integrate SD principles in Sustained access to potable drinking water to land, resources and ecosystems country policies/ programs to reverse all villages by 2007 loss of environmental resources Better quality of life and adaptive Electrify 80,000 additional villages by 2012 capacity due to access to Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of via decentralized sources electricity, enhanced supply of people without sustainable access to Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 clean water, health & education in safe drinking water and other notified stretches by 2012 rural areas

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies BIO- -FUELS/ TECHNOLOGIES FUELS/ TECHNOLOGIES BIO Solid Liquid Solid Liquid (Separate Slide) Wood Wood Agro- Agro -Waste Waste (Electricity) (Electricity) Gasifier Direct Co-generation Combustion (Processing) Combustion (Sugar Mills) (Rice Mills, Plantations)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Modern Biomass Fuels and Technologies Liquid BIO- -FUELS FUELS Liquid BIO Diesel Engines Gasoline Engines Diesel Engines Gasoline Engines Bio- Bio -Diesel Diesel Diesel- Diesel -Alcohol Alcohol Gasoline- Gasoline -Alcohol Alcohol Emulsions Blends Emulsions Blends Bio-Diesel Neat Bio-Diesel Blends

Indian Mission on Bio-diesel Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects � • Plantation on 400,000 hectares of land • Seed Collection • Oil Extraction • Transesterification • Blending • Marketing Phase II (2007-2012) � • Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel • One hectare plantation likely to produce 3.75 MT of seed, yielding 1.2 MT of oil

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Jetropha: Preferred Plant Choice Jatropha Plantation in India Jatropha plant Jatropha plantation on reclaimed desert using sewage waste water in Middle East

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Rural Employment, Environment and Energy Security Oil Extraction Plant • Large scale employment potential exists for Jatropha plantation and seed collection and extraction. • Seed yield of 4 Ton/Ha gives farmers Rs. 20000 income/ Ha/year from waste lands with support price of Rs. 5 per kg of seed. • Energy security and environment benefits due to replacement of imported fossil oil Rural Employment Trial Runs: 5-10% Bio-diesel by Indian Railways

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Network for Biomass Technology/Fuel Deployment Household lighting, cooking OUTPUTS equipments INPUTS Social-economic setup -Animal waste Biomass Surplus land from Land foodgrains -Human waste for power Land markets sufficiency -Crop residues -Waste-wood Biomass fired -Forest produce electricity Biomass Fertiliser -pipeline transport Fertiliser for Gas industry industry network Biomass Rural unemployed & pellets for Labour Community under-employed burning lighting and Banking equipments industry BIOMASS Biomass Capital Rural Financing liquid fuels Machinery infrastructure Transportation Farm auto, - personal component vehicles industry - LCV, HCV Biomass RE technologies – Energy solar, wind, fuel waste cells, bio-fuels etc Setting up Farm equipment Water water pump, Technology change of local Water processing + tractor fuel, agri Water -agricrop productivity equipments conservation, small scale processing industry river linking -farm m/c efficiency industry -Biomass and base biotechnology R&D Construction Rural Fertiliser use in Roads, godowns, -fuel enduse efficiency and auto fields + infra- Hydrogen heavy vehicles Fuel-cells industries hand-made structure production paper

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Biomass Technology Future in Different Scenarios Penetration of Biomass in Electricity Sector Scenarios 60 550 ppmv 50 40 Capacity (GW) 650 ppmv 30 20 Subsidy for Renewables IA2 (Reference) 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India AIM/CGE Model Development for India • Model Data Inputs • Energy and Environmental Security in South-Asia • South-Asia Energy Cooperation Scenarios • Model Results

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Model Data Inputs • I/O Table India 1999 (Source , CSO) – 115 X 115 Commodities – Disaggregated Oil & Gas into Oil & Gas – Aggregated to 35 X 35 Commodities • 4 Energy Sectors / Commodities – Coal / Petroleum / Gas / Electricity • Emission Coefficients – Source: Garg & Shukla, 2002 and India’s Initial NATCOM to UNFCCC (2004)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Energy and Environment Security in South Asia South-Asia Region • Among the fastest growing regions • Diverse geography, climate, energy resources, politico-economic systems • High Fossil Dependence and Oil Imports • Environment Security Concerns Dominant fuel in Non commercial Country commercial energy energy (as % of total consumption energy consumption) Energy Mix in India Non-commercial 1% Bangladesh Gas (65%) 47% 8% Energy 13% Imported oil & 43% Bhutan 95% coal India Coal (52%) 35% 44% 56% Maldives Imported oil 55% 35% Coal Petroleum Nepal Oil (74%) 81% Natural Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Commercial Pakistan Oil (55%) 33% Energy Sri Lanka Oil (89%) 51%