AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region October 24, 2002 Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi 1
Objectives To prospect the situation of economy, energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region • to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacific region (42 countries) • the target year is 2032 (= Johannesburg summit + 30) • to use simple method and develop several scenarios 2
Target Countries Detailed data model (Model A) Simple data model (Model B) Code Country Group Code Country Group AUS Australia ANZ AFG Afghanistan SA BGD Bangladesh SA BRN Brunei SEA CHN China EA BTN Bhutan SA IDN Indonesia SEA FJI Fiji SP IND India SA KHM Cambodia SEA IRN Iran SA KIR Kiribati SP JPN Japan EA LAO Lao SEA KAZ Kazakhstan CA MDV Maldives SA KGZ Kyrgyz Republic CA MNG Mongolia EA KOR Korea,Rep EA NRU Nauru SP LKA Sri Lanka SA PLW Palau SP MMR Myanmar SEA PNG Papua New Guinea SP MYS Malaysia SEA PYF French Polynesia SP NPL Nepal SA SLB Solomon Islands SP NZL New Zealand ANZ TON Tonga SP PAK Pakistan SA VUT Vanuatu SP PHL Philippines SEA WSM Samoa SP PRK Korea,Dem EA Code Group SGP Singapore SEA SA South Asia THA Thailand SEA SEA Southeast Asia TJK Tajikistan CA TKM Turkmenistan CA EA Northwest Pacific and East Asia CA Cetral Asia TWN Taiwan EA UZB Uzbekistan CA ANZ Australia And New Zealand 3 SP South Pacific VNM Vietnam SEA
Target Period 2032 : Rio summit (1992) + 40 Johannesburg summit (2002) + 30 To show “Historical data” + “Projection results” 10,000 6 1,600 9,000 5 8,000 Population (Million) 1,200 7,000 GDP (Bill.US$) GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) 4 6,000 800 5,000 3 4,000 2 3,000 400 2,000 1 1,000 0 0 0 Year 1970 1990 2010 2030 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year GDP GDPCPT 4
Target Indices (1) Population: population, rate of urbanization (2) Economy: GDP (growth rate, per capita), GDP share (agriculture, industry, service, PFC (private final consumption), car holders (3) Energy: primary energy supply by fuel, final energy demand by fuel and sector, energy plant, economic intensity, carbon intensity (4) Environment: GHG (CO2, SOx, NOx, CH4, N2O, CO) emissions, wastes (5) Water: withdrawal, consumption (agriculture, industry, domestic), population in water stress* (6) Food and Agriculture*: average daily consumption, vegetable food consumption, animal food consumption, fraction of meat from feedlots, fish production, crop production, feed production, nitrogen fertilizer consumption (7) Land use*: crop land, irrigated cropland, potential cultivable land, mature forest, growing forest, pasture, protected, other land (8) Human Health*: SPM (PM10, PM2.5) (9) Biodiversity*: species, degree of threat to biological diversity, area of habitat remaining Note: sign “*” means the element under consideration. 5
Energy Supply and Demand Driving Forces Population Economy GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand Wastes Model Structure 6
Model Procedures Regression analysis Prospect GDP share (AVA, IVA, SVA) Scenario Setting car holders GDP, population, AEEI, final energy demand non fossil fuel supply… energy share 80% Regression results -0.5724 y = 9.8494x 70% R 2 = 0.9778 GDP share, 60% AVA share of GDP [%] 50% final energy demand… 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 7 GDP/cap [1995US$/cap]
Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A) AEEI Driving Force Final Energy Demand Elasticity Population IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH IND: IVA GDP TPR: CAR *IVASHR TPO: GDP Electricity Share *AVASHR AGR: AVA Heat Share *PFCSHR OTH: PFC IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH CARCAP Non-fossil Final Energy Demand: Final Energy Demand: fuel supply Electricity and Heat excluding Electricity and Heat Non-fossil IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH fuel supply Generation Fossil fuel Fossil fuel Distribution loss efficiency power plant share share Primary Energy Supply Input for Electricity plant, COL, OIL, GAS, CRW Heat plant, and CHP NUC, HYD, GEO, NEW IVA: Industry Value Added IND: Industry COL: Coal AVA: Agriculture Value Added TPR: Transport on road NUC: Nuclear Scenario OIL: Oil PFC: Private Final Consumption TPO: Other transport HYD: Hydro power GAS: Gas Regression CARCAP: Car holders per capita AGR: Agriculture GEO: Geothermal 8 CRW: Combustible OTH: Other NEW: Wind, PV, and so on Calculation (Fix) and renewables
Programming and Interface ATPL (AIM/Trend Program Language) • Built with VBA of Microsoft Excel • Major commands are load, save, future parameter setting, future projection, format and regression. Interface • Clickable buttons are designed to perform simulations effectively. They are written in ATPL and users can write or change programs for their own purpose. 9
ATPL Example program ImpSrsTest Open A B C D E worksheet 1 Program ImpSrsTest 2 OpenWS !Import DAT <1 3 Series !Import YEAR <1 4 !Table DATA1 Import 5 ImpSrs !Table Data series data 6 POP POP_A <1 7 GDP GDP_A 8 End Input data sheet 'DAT' time series A B C D E time series 1 2 #TABLE DATA1 data name 3 YEAR 1990 1995 2000 4 POP_A 1,000 1,010 1,020 5 GDP_A 1,000 1,050 1,120 6 10 Please see “AIMTrend-AddIn Manual.doc”
Interface Save simulation case by clicking Choose the button File Operation “country” Load Data Case India Save data Run the program with your data set Future Projection Write Output to Projection All "Result" Sheet Projection of Projection of Energy Use Water Use 11 Please see “AIMTrend-User's Manual.doc”
Scenario Study UNEP/GEO3 scenario Market First (MK): market driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries Policy First (PO): concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments Security First (SC): inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses Sustainability First (SU): a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions 12
Sustainability First (SU) Driving forces Scenario for China Basic scenario Basic scenario 10,000 6 1,600 GDP (Bill.US$) GDP per capita (1000US$/cap) 5 8,000 Population (Million) 4 1,200 6,000 3 4,000 800 2 2,000 1 400 0 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 0 Year 1970 1990 2010 2030 GDP GDPCPT Year Regression Regression 60 GDP share (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year 13 AVASHR IVASHR SVASHR
Sustainability First (SU) Energy structure Scenario for China Energy and CO 2 emissions 3,000 2,000 TPE ,TFE (MTOE) CO 2 emissions (Mt-C) 2,500 1,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 0 0 Year 1970 1990 2010 2030 TPE TFE CO2 TPE (Total Primary Energy Supply), TFE (Total Final Energy Demand) Energy structure of FE Energy structure of PE Primary energy supply by 2,000 3,000 Final energy demand by NEW 2,500 sector (MTOE) OTH 1,500 fuel (MTOE) GEO 2,000 HYD AGR 1,500 1,000 NUC TPO 1,000 CRW 500 TPR 500 GAS IND 0 0 OIL 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 14 COL Year Year
Energy related CO 2 emissions in Asia-Pacific region 8,000 Historical data 7,000 Market First Policy First 6,000 CO 2 emissions (Mt-C) Security First 5,000 Sustainability First 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 15
Energy related CO 2 emissions in sub-regions of Asia-Pacific region South Asia South Asia Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%) Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%) MK : Market First MK : Market First SC : Security First SC : Security First Afghanistan Afghanistan Bangladesh Bangladesh 300 300 PO : Policy First PO : Policy First SU : Sustainability First SU : Sustainability First India India Bhutan Bhutan Iran Iran Maldives Maldives Nepal Nepal Pakistan Pakistan 250 250 Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Brunei Darussalam Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Cambodia 200 200 Indonesia Indonesia Lao PDR Lao PDR Malaysia Malaysia Myanmar Myanmar 150 150 Philippines Philippines Singapore Singapore Viet Nam Viet Nam Viet Nam Thailand Thailand East Asia East Asia 100 100 China China DPR Korea DPR Korea Japan Japan Rep. Of Korea Rep. Of Korea MK MK MK Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan PO PO PO Mongolia Mongolia SC SC SC SU SU SU 50 50 Central Asia Central Asia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan 0 0 Tajikistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan MK MK MK MK MK MK MK MK MK MK MK MK PO PO PO SC SC SC SU SU SU PO PO PO SC SC SC SU SU SU PO PO PO PO PO PO SC SC SC SU SU SU SC SC SC SU SU SU Uzbekistan Uzbekistan ANZ and South Pacific ANZ and South Pacific -50 -50 Australia Australia New Zealand New Zealand South Asia South Asia South East Asia South East Asia East Asia East Asia Central Asia Central Asia ANZ and South ANZ and South Fiji Fiji Kiribati Kiribati Pacific Pacific Nauru Nauru Palau Palau Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea French Polynesia French Polynesia Tonga Tonga Vanuatu Vanuatu 16 Samoa Samoa Solomon Islands Solomon Islands
Recommend
More recommend
