AIM/CGE Model Model in in AIM/CGE Low Carbon Society Project Low - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/CGE Model Model in in AIM/CGE Low Carbon Society Project Low Carbon Society Project Toshihiko MASUI Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies The AIM Training Workshop The AIM Training Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES Memorial Hall, NIES Ohyama October 20th, 2006 October 20th, 2006

AIM/Enduse Enduse and AIM/CGE and AIM/CGE AIM/ AIM/Enduse model � This model can treat and assess the individual technology. � But, this model is partial equilibrium model on energy. � When the energy demand is changed, the economic activity is also changed. AIM/CGE model � This tool draws the balanced macro economy, based on social conditions such as population, technology and preference, countermeasures proposed by other references and model results, and the energy efficiency and primary energy supply estimated from AIM/Enduse model. � Based on the story lines, capital stock, income from/to the rest of the world and other account are taken into account. � Supply and demand of energies are estimated from hybrid account system which consists of energy balance table and SNA. � This tool includes the concept of AIM/Energy snapshot tool. AIM, NIES

Process of model development Process of model development and simulations and simulations Benchmark year • Input-output table (or U matrix and V matrix) AIM/CGE Checking consistency • Fixed capital formation matrix benchmark with benchmark data (or investment by sector) year • Capital stock matrix if possible • Price data if treating physical unit • CO2 emission factor Target year • Input-output coefficient Check of simulation • Consumption pattern (preference result in targett year AIM/CGE change) target • Endowments of capital and labor • Economic activity year • Direct cost and effectiveness of • CO2 emissions countermeasure • Consistency with • Energy supply narrative storyline • International price and trade GAMS program AIM, NIES

Image of AIM/CGE Image of AIM/CGE preference CO2 foreign final market consumption service market CO2 life technology intermediate progress demand production Investment energy balance table capital stock matrix socio output matrix input matrix economic development input coefficient output coefficient capital stock matrix technology change technology in production sectors capital capital results market from other labor population models labor market income expenditure final demand sector income : parameters on technology : assumptions and input data expenditure balance : factors calculated in this tool : commodity flows : balanced conditions : markets : monetary flows AIM, NIES : other flows

Overall of AIM/CGE (1) Overall of AIM/CGE (1) commodities and activities � primary energy – coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, other renewable (solar, wind, waste, biomass, ...) � final energy – coal products, oil products, town gas, electricity, heat, hydrogen, biomass (solid, liquid, gas) � Non-energy – agriculture, forestry, fishery, foods, textile, paper, chemical, cement, other ceramic, steel, non-steel metal, machinery, other production, construction, water, whole sale & retail trade, finance & insurance, real estate, transport (passenger, freight), communication, public service, other service Definition of commodity and activity can be changed according to your purpose. AIM, NIES

Overall of AIM/CGE (2) Overall of AIM/CGE (2) ( ) i : commodity = ① : production function V f U , U , CAP LAB , e ∈ i : energy goods j i , j e j , n j , j j ∑ ∑ n ∈ i : non-energy goods + + − = + + + + V W IMP EXP U CH CG IH IG ② : commodity market , j i i i i ij i i i i j j j : activity = ∑ TK CAP ③ : capital market V ji : output j j = ∑ U ij : intermediate demand TL LAB ④ : labor market j CAP j : capital input j ∑ = + + + + − CAPH j : capital input (private) ⑤ GDP CH CG IH IG EXP IMP : calculation of GDE i i i i i i i CAPG j : capital input (public) ∑ ∑ : expenditure and income ∗ + ∗ + ∗ = P U PK CAP PL LAB P V * ⑥ LAB j : labor input i i j , j j j i j i , in production sector i i W i : waste generation from final ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) + + + = + : expenditure and PK CAPH * PL TL * W ah P * CH IH demand sector j i i i i j i i income in household ⑦ ∑ ∑ ( ) IMP i : import + = + : expenditure and income PK CAPG * ag P * CG IG j i i i j i EXP i : export in government ( ) ( ) ⑧ = = : assumption of import and export CH i : final consumption (household) IMP imp * , EXP exp * i i i i CG i : final consumption (government) ( ) = ⑨ K k CAP : fixed capital stock matrix IH i : fixed capital formation (private) i j , j j ( ) ∑ ( ) IG i : fixed capital formation (public) + = + ⑩ IH IG g d g , , K gs d gs SK , , : investment goods market i i j i j i j , i i TK : total capital j = ∑ = + TL : total labor ⑪ CAP CAPH CAPG K : capital stock j j j i j , i ( ) GDP : gross domestic products ∑ ∑ = + + ⑫ : CO2 emission CO 2 ef * CH CG er * U P i : commodity price e e e e j , e j , e j PK j : capital price ah : net income transfer in household f j : production function PL : labor price ag : net income transfer in government imp i : import function K ij : capital stock by sectors by d i : service year exp i : export function investment goods g j , gs : change in 2050 k j : capital stock matrix SK i : social stock by investment goods ef e : emission factor g j , gs : investment function CO2 : CO2 emissions AIM, NIES er e,j : fuel combustion rate

Image of input & output Image of input & output economic ① ⑤ ⑦ Input coefficient account of growth on energy inc. & expnd. production sector final demand sector SNA ⑧ ext. trnsact. commodity demand account energy tech energy balance table import&export tech& (input) investment ② final cons preference energy balance intermediate table in 2000 energy demand input coefficient non- on non-energy ⑫ ⑫ CO2 ④ added IO table labor value ⑦ ① input matrix in 2000 capital ③ ⑥ ⑥ ⑩ production and cost fixed capital ① output coefficient form. matrix on energy in 2000 commodity supply energy energy balance table tech ② (output) tech ② capital profile in sector energy non ① output matrix ⑨ compensation of cap. goods production social output coefficient ⑥ on non-energy goods cap. ⑩ fixed capital stock production and income matrix V matrix ⑪ tech in 2000 ⑪ capital stock data in output AIM, NIES input assumption balance condition 2000

Tri. yen at 2000 price 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 <Sectors> 0 AIM, NIES Agriculture Forestry 2000 Fishing Coal mining Crude oil & NG mining 2050 A Other mining Food products & beverages Textiles Pulp, paper & paper products 2050 B Publishing & printing Chemical materials Chemical products Petroleum products Preliminary results Pre Coal products Non-metallic mineral liminary results Pig iron & crude steel Other steel products Non-ferrous metal Fabricated metal products Machinery Elec.machine, equip. & supplies Transport equipment Precision instruments Other manufacturing Construction Thermal power plant Non-thermal power plant Town gas Water supply Wholesale & retail trade Finance & insurance Real estate Railway transport Road transport Water transport Air transport Other transport Communications Public service activities Other service activities

Preliminary results liminary results Pre A agriculture, forestry & fishery 2.0 A mining A energy intensive Annual change of prodution (%/year) A machinery 1.5 A other manufacturing A construction A electricity 1.0 A whole sale & retail trade A finance & insurance A transportation & communication A public service 0.5 A other service B agriculture, forestry & fishery B mining 0.0 B energy intensive B machinery B other manufacturing -0.5 B construction B electricity B whole sale & retail trade -1.0 B finance & insurance B transportation & communication 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% B public service Production share(%) B other service AIM, NIES

Attempts to draw low carbon society Attempts to draw low carbon society Reference (1) (2000-2050) Reference (2) (2000-2050) Reduction (1) (2000-2050) Reduction (2) (2000-2050) 1955-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 1955-2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Annual change (%) CO2 Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity CO2 emission change is disaggregated based on Kaya Identity. AIM, NIES