CGE Model and its Role in CGE Model and its Role in Low Carbon Society Project Low Carbon Society Project Toshihiko MASUI Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies The 11th AIM International Workshop The 11th AIM International Workshop Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES Memorial Hall, NIES Ohyama February 20th, 2006 February 20th, 2006
Role of this tool Role of this tool � This tool draws the balanced macro economy, based on social conditions such as population, technology and preference, countermeasures proposed by other teams, and the energy efficiency and primary energy supply estimated from bottom-up models. � Supply and demand of energies are estimated from hybrid account system which consists of energy balance table and SNA. � Based on the story lines, capital stock, income from/to the rest of the world and other account are taken into account. AIM, NIES
Image of tool preference CO2 foreign final market consumption service market CO2 life technology intermediate progress demand production Investment energy balance table capital stock matrix socio output matrix input matrix economic development input coefficient output coefficient capital stock matrix technology change technology in production sectors capital capital results market from other labor population models labor market income expenditure final demand sector income : parameters on technology : assumptions and input data expenditure balance : factors calculated in this tool : commodity flows : balanced conditions : markets : monetary flows : other flows
Overall of this tool (1) Overall of this tool (1) commodities and activities � primary energy – coal, crude oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, other renewable (solar, wind, waste, biomass, ...) � final energy – coal products, oil products, town gas, electricity, heat, hydrogen, biomass (solid, liquid, gas) � Non-energy – agriculture, forestry, fishery, foods, textile, paper, chemical (material, products), cement, other ceramic, steel, non-steel metal, machinery, other production, construction, water, whole sale & retail trade, finance & insurance, real estate, transport (passenger, freight), communication, public service, other service AIM, NIES
Overall of this tool (2) ( ) i : commodity = ① V f U , U , CAP LAB , : production function e ∈ i : energy goods j i , j e j , n j , j j ∑ ∑ n ∈ i : non-energy goods + + − = + + + + V W IMP EXP U CH CG IH IG ② : commodity market , j i i i i ij i i i i j j j : activity ∑ = TK CAP ③ : capital market V ji : output j j = ∑ U ij : intermediate demand TL LAB ④ : labor market j CAP j : capital input j ∑ = + + + + − CAPH j : capital input (private) ⑤ GDP CH CG IH IG EXP IMP : calculation of GDE i i i i i i i CAPG j : capital input (public) ∑ ∑ : expenditure and income ∗ + ∗ + ∗ = P U PK CAP PL LAB P V * ⑥ LAB j : labor input i i j , j j j i j i , in production sector i i W i : waste generation from final ∑ ∑ ∑ ( ) + + + = + : expenditure and PK CAPH * PL TL * W ah P * CH IH demand sector j i i i i j i i income in household ⑦ ∑ ∑ ( ) IMP i : import + = + : expenditure and income PK CAPG * ag P * CG IG j i i i j i EXP i : export in government ( ) ( ) ⑧ = = : assumption of import and export CH i : final consumption (household) IMP imp * , EXP exp * i i i i CG i : final consumption (government) ( ) = ⑨ K k CAP : fixed capital stock matrix IH i : fixed capital formation (private) i j , j j ( ) ∑ ( ) IG i : fixed capital formation (public) + = + ⑩ IH IG g d g , , K gs d gs SK , , : investment goods market i i j i j i j , i i TK : total capital j = ∑ = + TL : total labor ⑪ CAP CAPH CAPG K : capital stock j j j i j , i ( ) GDP : gross domestic products ∑ ∑ = + + ⑫ : CO2 emission CO 2 ef * CH CG er * U P i : commodity price e e e e j , e j , e j PK j : capital price ah : net income transfer in household f j : production function PL : labor price ag : net income transfer in government imp i : import function K ij : capital stock by sectors by d i : service year exp i : export function investment goods g j , gs : change in 2050 k j : capital stock matrix SK i : social stock by investment goods ef e : emission factor g j , gs : investment function CO2 : CO2 emissions er e,j : fuel combustion rate
Image of input & output economic ① ⑤ ⑦ Input coefficient account of growth on energy inc. & expnd. production sector final demand sector SNA ⑧ ext. trnsact. commodity demand account energy tech energy balance table import&export tech& (input) investment ② final cons preference energy balance intermediate table in 2000 energy demand input coefficient non- on non-energy ⑫ ⑫ CO2 ④ added IO table labor value ⑦ ① input matrix in 2000 capital ③ ⑥ ⑥ ⑩ production and cost fixed capital ① output coefficient form. matrix on energy in 2000 commodity supply energy energy balance table tech ② (output) tech ② capital profile in sector energy non ① output matrix ⑨ compensation of cap. goods production social output coefficient ⑥ on non-energy goods cap. ⑩ fixed capital stock production and income matrix V matrix ⑪ tech in 2000 ⑪ capital stock data in output input assumption balance condition 2000
Attempts to draw low carbon society Attempts to draw low carbon society Reference (1) (2000-2050) Reference (2) (2000-2050) Reduction (1) (2000-2050) Reduction (2) (2000-2050) 1955-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 1955-2000 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Annual change (%) CO2 Population GDP per capita Energy intensity Carbon intensity AIM, NIES
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