AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) The - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AIM/Trend Model AIM/Trend Model Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan) The 7th AIM International Workshop; 15-16, March 2002 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan 1

Objectives Objectives To prospect the situation of economy, energy and environment in Asia-Pacific region • to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacific region (42 countries) • the target year is 2032 (= Johannesburg summit + 30) • to use simple method and develop several scenarios 2

Target Country Target Country Detailed Model Application (Model A) Simple Model Application (Model B) C o d e C o u n t r y G r o u p C o d e C o u n t r y G r o u p A U SA u s t r a l i a A N Z A F G A f g h a n i s t a n S A B G DB a n g l a d e s h S A B R N B r u n e i S E A C H NC h i n a E A B T N B h u t a n S A I D N I n d o n e s i a S E A F J IF i j i S P I N D I n d i a S A K H M C a m b o d i a S E A I R N I r a n S A K I R K i r i b a t i S P J P N J a p a n E A L A O L a o S E A K A ZK a z a k h s t a n C A M D VM a l d i v e s S A K G ZK y r g y z R e p u b l i c C A M N GM o n g o l i a E A K O RK o r e a , R e p E A N R U N a u r u S P L K A S r i L a n k a S A P L W P a l a u S P M M RM y a n m a r S E A P N G P a p u a N e w G u i n e a S P M Y SM a l a y s i a S E A P Y F F r e n c h P o l y n e s i a S P N P LN e p a l S A S L B S o l o m o n I s l a n d s S P N Z LN e w Z e a l a n d A N Z T O N T o n g a S P P A K P a k i s t a n S A V U TV a n u a t u S P P H LP h i l i p p i n e s S E A W S M S a m o a S P P R K K o r e a , D e m E A C o d e G r o u p S G PS i n g a p o r e S E A S A S o u t h A s i a T H A T h a i l a n d S E A T J K T a j i k i s t a n C A S E AS o u t h e a s t A s i a T K M T u r k m e n i s t a n C A E A N o r t h w e s t P a c i f i c a n d E a s t A s i a C A C e t r a l A s i a T W NT a i w a n E A A N ZA u s t r a l i a A n d N e w Z e a l a n d U Z B U z b e k i s t a n C A 3 S P S o u t h P a c i f i c V N M V i e t n a m S E A

Target Index Target Index (1) Population: population, rate of urbanization (2) Economy: GDP (growth rate, per capita), GDP share (agriculture, industry, service, PFC (private final consumption), car holders (3) Energy: primary energy supply by fuel, final energy demand by fuel and sector, energy plant, economic intensity, carbon intensity (4) Environment: GHGs (CO2, SOx, NOx, CH4, N2O, CO), wastes (5) Water: withdrawal, consumption (agriculture, industry, domestic), population in water stress* (6) Food and Agriculture*: average daily consumption, vegetable food consumption, animal food consumption, fraction of meat from feedlots, fish production, crop production, feed production, nitrogen fertilizer consumption (7) Land use*: crop land, irrigated cropland, potential cultivable land, mature forest, growing forest, pasture, protected, other land (8) Human Health*: SPM (PM10, PM2.5) (9) Biodiversity*: species, degree of threat to biological diversity, area of habitat remaining Note: sign “*” means the element under consideration 4

Energy Supply and Demand Driving Forces Population Economy GHGs Emissions Water Supply and Demand Wastes Model Structure Model Structure 5

Model Procedures Model Procedures Regression analysis Prospect GDP share (AVA, IVA, SVA) Scenario Setting car holders GDP, population, AEEI final energy demand non fossil fuel supply… energy share 80% Regression results -0.5724 y = 9.8494x 70% R 2 = 0.9778 GDP share, 60% AVA share of GDP [%] 50% final energy demand… 40% 30% 20% Others 10% 0% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 6 GDP/cap [1995US$/cap]

Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A) Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A) AEEI Driving Force Elasticity Final Energy Demand Population IND: IVA IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH GDP TPR: CAR *IVASHR TPO: GDP Electricity Share *AVASHR AGR: AVA Heat Share *PFCSHR OTH: PFC IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH CARCAP Non-fossil Final Energy Demand: Final Energy Demand: fuel supply Electricity and Heat without Electricity and Heat Non-fossil IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH fuel supply Generation Fossil fuel Fossil fuel Distribution loss efficiency power plant share share Primary Energy Supply Input for Elc.plant, Heat IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH plant, and CHP IND: Industry IVA: Industry Value Added Scenario TPR: Transport on road AVA: Agriculture Value Added Regression TPO: Other transport PFC: Private Final Consumption 7 AGR: Agriculture Calculation (Fix) CARCAP: Car holders per capita OTH: Other

Scenarios Scenarios GEO3 scenario Market Forces (MF): market driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries Policy Reform (PR): concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments Fortress World (FW): inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses Great Transitions (GT): a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions 8

Scenarios of Population and GDP Scenarios of Population and GDP 6 5 Population (Bil. cap) 4 MF FW 3 PR GT 2 Population 1 40 0 35 GDP 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 30 GDP (Tri. US$) MF 25 FW 20 PR 15 GT 10 5 0 9 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 50 50 0 0 1980 1980 FW MF 1985 1985 Total Primary Energy Supply 1990 1990 Total Primary Energy Supply 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 Scenarios of Scenarios of 2025 2025 2030 2030 SA SEA EA CA OCE SA SEA EA CA OCE Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) Total Primary Energy Supply (EJ/yr) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 50 50 0 0 1980 1980 1985 GT 1985 PR 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 10 SA SEA EA CA OCE SA SEA EA CA OCE

CO 2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) CO 2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 0 0 1980 1980 FW MF 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 Scenarios of CO 2 Scenarios of CO 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 SA SEA EA CA OCE SA SEA EA CA OCE CO 2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) CO 2 emissions (Mt-C/yr) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 0 0 1980 1980 1985 1985 GT PR 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 11 SA SEA EA CA OCE SA SEA EA CA OCE

Scenarios of SA region (MF) Scenarios of SA region (MF) 2500 9000 8000 PAK PAK Population GDP 2000 NPL NPL 7000 Population (Mil.cap) GDP (Bil.US$/yr) MDV MDV 6000 1500 LKA LKA 5000 IRN IRN 4000 1000 IND IND 3000 BTN BTN 2000 BGD BGD 500 AFG AFG 1000 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2500 1600 Total Primary PAK 1400 CO2 emissions PAK 2000 NPL NPL 1200 Energy Supply TPS (MTOE/yr) MDV CO 2 (Mt-C/yr) MDV 1000 1500 LKA LKA IRN 800 IRN IND IND 1000 600 BTN BTN 400 BGD BGD 500 200 AFG AFG 12 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Scenarios of Thailand (MF) Scenarios of Thailand (MF) Final Energy Demand by Sector (MTOE/yr) 140 AVASHR IVASHR SVASHR GDP Final Energy Demand 100% 1,000 120 900 GDP 100 80% 800 OTH GDP (Bil. US$) GDP share (%) 700 AGR 80 60% 600 TPO 60 500 TPR 40% 400 IND 40 300 20% 200 20 100 0 0% 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Primary Energy Supply by Fuel (Mtoe/yr) 30 200 Electricity Generation (MTOE/yr) Primary Energy 180 Electricity 25 NEW 160 Supply GEO GEO 140 HYD 20 HYD 120 NUC NUC 15 100 CRW CRW GAS 80 GAS 10 OIL 60 OIL COL 40 5 COL 20 13 0 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Next steps Next steps • Revised AIM/Trend model (version.2). • Scenarios should be checked by experts in each region. • Develop renewables, nuclear ,gas supply scenario. • Add waste sector, food/biomass sector… • Other role of AIM/Trend model: database, display of scenario results AIM/Trend scenarios can be used as input data for other AIM models (AIM/CGE, AIM/Country...) 14