APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India APEIS Project: India Report Presented by P R Shukla Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Presentation Agenda 1. Strategic Database Development • Local Innovations (Examples) • Database Preparation • Indian SDB 2. AIM/CGE Model Development • Data Development • Indian Scenarios • Model Modification • Results 3. Interface with APN’s CAPaBLE Project

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Strategic Data Base (SDB) • Environmental Innovations in India (Examples) • Narrative Description • Quantitative Data Card • Socio Economic Scenarios • Model Applications

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Local Environmental Innovation (Example) Vermiculture Compost • Earthworms maintain the fertility of the soil and ward off harmful pests • No chemical fertilizers and pesticides required • The know-how popularly known as "Surface Bed Method" has penetrated to over 1,00,000 farmers and 500 entrepreneurs

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Local Environmental Innovation (Example) Bio-organic soil enricher • Made from biodegradable organic substances through microbial conversion process • Results in higher yield • Improvement in soil aeration and water holding capacity • Increased disease resistance and tolerance

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Preparation of Narrative Description Cards Collect Information about innovations and prepare narrative description cards • Literature searching • Interview with experts Format • Present: Free • Future: Free form & Access

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Narrative Description Card Example Narrative Description Card Sales Campaign for Electric Vehicle Reva: India’s First Electric Car Reva is the India’s first zero-polluting electric vehicle heralds a new era of non-polluting, cost effective, quiet city transportation - A boon for city commuters. This elegant, light-yet rugged, two-door sedan comfortably seats 4 people. It has a range of 80 kilometers in stop- and-go city driving, and a top speed of 65 km/h. Reva runs 80 Km on a single charge of 9 units of electricity. The cost of the vehicle is approximately $ 7000. Eco-Friendly Being an Electric Vehicle, Reva is zero polluting and noiseless. It does not require frequent oil changes. Moreover Reva has high recyclable content High on Technology Two computers and the state-of-the-art electronics in the Reva provide an efficient energy management system with advanced computerized vehicle diagnostics. The regenerative braking in the Reva recovers useful electricity by putting it back into the batteries. Regenerative braking lets the motor act as a generator, converting the vehicle's momentum into electricity….

From narrative description to data card Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Translate narrative description to systematic and quantitative data card Capacity • 4 persons • Top Speed: 65Km/h Energy Needed • 9KWh for 80 Km run Emissions • No direct Emissions

Quantitative Data Card Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Storylines and Socio-economic scenarios Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Prepare storylines and socio-economic scenarios Write Storyline Description Projections • Workout Scenario Numbers Application to Selected Sector

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Description of Indian Storyline IB1 scenario In the IB1 scenario, the Indian economy is characterized by a shift towards a high level of environmental and social consciousness. There is an increased emphasis on environmental damage prevention and long ‐ term sustainability of socio ‐ economic developmental actions on the part of government, business, media and the public. Heightened environmental consciousness manifests itself in the positive impacts on natural resource use. Technological change plays an important role. Economic development is balanced and efforts to achieve equitable income distribution are effective. Efficiency improvement measures, low and carbon free technologies and cleaner fuels penetrate faster and infrastructure to facilitate these has to be built. Technological progress is accelerated, both in terms of indigenous efficiency improvements and earlier and higher penetration of advanced clean technologies. The scenario assumes more emphasis on development of renewable technologies. …….

Projections Corresponding to Storylines Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India 2010 2010 IA1 IA1 IA2 IA2 IB1 IB1 IB2 IB2 Gene al Gene al r r Economic Growth Rate Economic Growth Rate % per year % per year 9 9 6 6 7 7 5 5 Population Population Million Million 1157 1157 1192 1192 1157 1157 11 11 83 83 Tran port Tran port s s Cars Cars BPKM BPKM 413.5 413.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 376.5 322.8 322.8 Bus Bus BPKM BPKM 3522.3 3522.3 3300.0 3300.0 3340.2 3340.2 3011.7 3011.7 Total road passenger Total road passenger BPKM BPKM 4244.9 4244.9 3969.5 3969.5 4004.7 4004.7 3590.0 3590.0 Heavy commercial vehicles Heavy commercial vehicles BTKM BTKM 1251.5 1251.5 1173.6 1173.6 1099.0 1099.0 1036.2 1036.2 Light commercial vehicles Light commercial vehicles BTKM BTKM 64.7 64.7 59.4 59.4 56.0 56.0 50 2 50 2 . . Total road freight Total road freight BTKM BTKM 1316.2 1316.2 1233.0 1233.0 1155.0 1155.0 1086.4 1086.4 Rail passenger Rail passenger BPKM BPKM 659.4 659.4 628.0 628.0 643.0 643.0 588.3 588.3 Rail freight Rail freight BTKM BTKM 541.7 541.7 500.0 500.0 520.0 520.0 481.0 481.0 Air passenger Air passenger BPKM BPKM 45.3 45.3 44.0 44.0 42.7 42.7 38 3 38 3 . . Ship freight Ship freight BTKM BTKM 15.3 15.3 14.6 14.6 15.0 15.0 13 3 13 3 . .

Simulate Environment Pressures Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Simulate future environmental pressures and analyze effect of strategies Affected Model Parameters Identify Extent of Effect Suitable modifications in the model parameters

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Passenger Transport Scenarios Indian SDB

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India AIM/CGE Model Development for India • Data Development • Indian Scenarios • Model Modification • Results

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Data Development 115 Commodities • Indian I/O Table (CSO, 1995) 35 Sectors – Make Matrix 6 Energy Commodities – Use Matrix 6 Energy Sectors – Fixed Capital Formation Matrix • Energy Balance Table • Emission Coefficients

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India Scenarios • Reference (Initial 6% annual growth) • High economic growth (Initial 9% annual growth) • Low economic growth (Initial 5% annual growth) • Efficiency improvement (Initial 3% annual improvement)

Reference Case Results Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India 7 6 GDP 5 Index (2000=1) . Energy 4 Carbon 3 2 1 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Years

GDP Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India 25000 High Growth 20000 Reference Rs. Billion 15000 Low Growth 10000 5000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India CO 2 Emissions 3500 High Growth 3000 Reference 2500 Energy Eff. CO 2 (Mt) 2000 Low Growth 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India CO 2 Intensity of GDP CO 2 Intensity: Ton/Thousand Rs. (1995) 0.30 0.25 High Growth Reference 0.20 CO 2 Intensity Energy Eff. Low Growth 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India APEIS & CAPaBLE Project Interface CAPaBLE Project Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysis of Mitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities APEIS Session was held at the CAPaBLE Workshop at AIT, Bangkok