COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low- -Carbon Economy Carbon Economy Global Challenges Toward Low -Focus on Country Focus on Country- -Specific Scenario Analysis Specific Scenario Analysis- - - December 3, 2005 Montreal December 3, 2005 Montreal Low Carbon Scenarios Low Carbon Scenarios for India to 2050 for India to 2050 P.R. Shukla (shukla@iimahd.ernet.in shukla@iimahd.ernet.in) ) P.R. Shukla ( Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA) Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIMA)
Population Drivers of Future Emissions 2.5 Conventional Drivers High 2 Medium • Population Population in billions Low 1.5 • Economic Growth 1 • Energy Resources 0.5 • Technologies 0 2000 1950 2050 2100 Economic Growth Emerging Drivers for Developing 50 year CAGR 100 year CAGR Countries 90 80 4.5% High 5.56% 70 • Transition Processes (Lock-ins) GDP index (2000=1) 60 Medium 4 % 50 • International Labor Markets 4.91 % 40 30 • Human Capital Low 3.5% 4.71% 20 10 • Knowledge Flows 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 • Governance (Risks, Investments)
Indian Emissions Scenarios Market integration Integrated Fragmented IA1 IA2 Centralizati e Globalization on Mixed Economy c n High Growth CO 2 Emissions Projections for India a n r 8100 e Decentralization IB1 v IB2 o G IA2 7200 Sustainable Self Reliance Development 6300 IB2 5400 CO 2 Emissions (MT ) IA1 Top-down Models Modeling Framework 4500 AIM/Material IA1T Consolidation GEMA 3600 Productivity IB1 SGM Global AIM/Trend Energy Bottom-up Models 2700 Prices Regional projections ERB/Mini-CAM Power Sector LP 1800 Prices, Energy GDP Balances ANSWER Stochastic MARKAL MARKAL 900 Technology Share End -use 2050 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Demand Emissions Scenarios Demand Local/Sector Technology Projection Specifications Models Sector Demand AIM/Local Projections of AIM/End-Use Local Emissions GIS Model Health Inventory Impact Assessment Assessment
Indian Emissions: Equity and Cost-effectiveness Per Capita CO 2 Emissions 4 4 18 IA2 IPCC A2 Scenario Indian Scenarios Annex II 15 Ton of Carbon Dioxide/Person Per capita emissions (CO 2 ) 3 3 IA1 12 Annex I excl. Annex II IB2 2 2 9 IB1 World 6 Non-Annex I (Rest) 1 1 Non-Annex I (Asia) 3 0 0 0 2100 1990 2010 2030 2050 2090 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2070 Mitigation Supply-curve from India 2005-2035) 60 50 Cost ($/Ton of Carbon) 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Carbon Mitigation (billion ton)
Technologies in Scenarios Conventional Technology Paths: Include significant endogenous technological change Synfuels, Next-Gen Nuclear Fission Fuel cell vehicles, Pipeline networks Energy efficient appliances/ infrastructure 4500 Coal liquid, IGCC, Hydrogen from gas IA2 Frozen Technology 3750 IB2 Nuclear (Thorium), Carbon-free hydrogen IA1 CO 2 Emissions (Million Ton ) Information highways, High speed trains 3000 IA1T Advanced materials, Nanotechnology 2250 IB1 Push for renewable energy & recycling 1500 Renewable Energy Technologies Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system Substitution of transport by IT 750 2000 2020 2040 2050 2010 2030 Dematerialization, Material substitutions Sustainable habitats & land-use practices
Stabilization Induced Low Carbon Transition • Type of endogenous development path Indian Emission Scenarios & Cost-effective matters to quantity and cost of mitigation 550ppmv mitigation trajectory • Cost-effective Stabilization, e.g. at 550 1800 1800 1800 IA2 IA2 Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon ppmv level, would require mitigation in 1600 1600 1600 Carbon Emissions (MT) India even in case of low endogenous IB2 IB2 1400 1400 1400 Carbon Emissions (MT) emissions scenarios 1200 1200 1200 IA1 IA1 1000 1000 1000 • Low endogenous emissions trajectory IA1T IA1T 800 800 800 IB1 IB1 would result from technology innovations 600 600 600 and sustainable actions 400 400 400 550 ppmv 550 ppmv • High economic growth does not mean high 200 200 200 2000 2000 2020 2020 2040 2040 2060 2060 2080 2080 2100 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 emissions 550 ppmv CO 2 Stabilization Induced Energy/ Technology Transition in India in A2 Scenario • There is no silver bullet Emissions in Million Ton of Carbon Carbon Capture Carbon Capture Carbon Capture • Need to develop portfolio of technologies Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Wind Wind Wind 2500 2500 2500 2000 2000 Solar Solar Solar • Significant stabilization induced transitions Biomass Biomass Biomass in the second half of 21 st century 2000 2000 2000 1600 1600 Hydro Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear 1500 1500 1500 1200 1200 Gas Gas Gas • Stabilization induced technological change Oil Oil Oil would impose sizable GDP losses India 550 ppmv emission India 550 ppmv emission India 550 ppmv emission 1000 1000 1000 800 800 550 PPMV 550 PPMV 550 PPMV 550 PPMV 550 PPMV 550 PPMV • Technology & financial transfers are vital 500 500 500 400 400 for a cost-effective and fair stabilization regime 0 0 0 1990 1990 1990 2005 2005 2005 2020 2020 2020 2035 2035 2035 2050 2050 2050 2065 2065 2065 2080 2080 2080 2095 2095 2095
Aligning Development and Climate National Development Targets Climate Goal Economic/social Indicator Economic/social Indicator Technology & Institutional Innovations Climate Quality Climate Quality Aligning Development & Climate Actions to Gain Multiple Dividends Indian Examples • Air Quality and GHG Mitigation • Energy Security and GHG Mitigation • South-Asia Regional Energy and Economic Cooperation and Climate • Infrastructure Investment and Climate Risks
Joint SO2 and CO2 Mitigation Energy Security and GHG Mitigation 7 80% SO 2 Emissions 50 years of Primary Energy Transitions in India Percentage of Primary Energy 6 A2 Scenario 60% 5 Million Ton Emission Biomass 4 40% 3 Coal Frozen SO 2 Control Policies 2 Oil 20% 1 Gas Nuclear Hydro 0 0% 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 1953 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 800 Carbon Emissions Energy Security: How choices matter to climate? Million Ton of Carbon • Domestic Coal – High Emissions 600 A2 Scenario • Nuclear Fission – Carbon Free, Safety Issues Emissions With Carbon Price @ • Wind – Limited Potential, Supply stability $5/ton of CO 2 400 Solar – High upfront cost, Supply stability, Storage • • Bio-fuels � Ethanol – Food Security, Water Stress With BAU SO 2 Control Policies 200 � Bio-Diesel – Land Restoration, Employment 0 Indian Bio-diesel Mission 2035 1995 2005 2015 2025 � Phase I (2003-07):Demonstration Projects Joint Mitigation (Period 2005-2030) • Crop: Jatropha Curcas Mitigation Regime Co-benefits • 400,000 hectares of land • Participation by Oil Companies Little carbon SO 2 mitigation alone � mitigation Phase II (2007-2012) • Self Sustaining Expansion of Biodiesel Joint Mitigation: CO 2 mitigation Joint mitigation costs • Production target 1.2 MT of oil/ hectare @ $5/ton & same SO 2 target $400 Million less
South-Asia Energy Cooperation Infrastructure and Climate Arabian Sea Monsoon Rainfall (2050) % GDP Benefit (Saving) $ Billion Cumulative from 2010 to 2030 Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87 CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08 Increase in mean and variability due to Climate Change SO 2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03 Probability of Occurrence Total 359 0.98 Present C limate More number of days with >200 Less number of Spillover Benefits: mm rainfall Very high days with >200 number of days mm rainfall with >200 mm • 16 MW additional Hydropower rainfall • Flood control Future Climate • Lower energy prices would enhance Light and Heavy and competitiveness of regional industries spread -over rain Number of days with concentrated rain > 200mm rainfall
Conclusions • Strategies for low carbon future should begin with shaping endogenous development path • Stabilization would require mitigation even in low endogenous emission scenarios • Achieving cost-effective global transition to low carbon future would call for substantial mitigation and adaptation actions in Developing Countries • Stabilization would significantly alter energy system • Policies and measures for achieving “ National Sustainable Development Goals ” provide climate friendly opportunities • Aligning development and climate actions would accrue multiple dividends from co-benefits/spillovers and reduce ‘ climate burden ’
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