Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey April 2019 Methodology - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey April 2019

Methodology Figure 1 ❖ National survey o Conducted April 11 to 28, 2019 o 980 face-to-face interviews o Margin of error is +/- 3.1 at the 95% confidence level o Demographically and geographically representative

Conclusions Figure 2 ❖ Extreme polarization ❖ Rejection of Maduro regime, but base of support ❖ Strong support for Guaidó ❖ U.S. and allied countries viewed positively ❖ Support for elections under Guaidó and targeted sanctions ❖ Division on military foreign intervention ❖ Chávez’s legacy mixed

Maduro Widely Rejected, but Has a Base of Support Figure 3

Political blocs Figure 4 Political Blocs PSUV Supporters of anti-regime political parties 28 31 No party affiliation 41

Demographic breakdown of political blocs Figure 5 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated 18 - 29 32 43 40 30 - 39 23 24 22 40 - 49 18 14 23 50 - 59 18 14 11 50+ years: 50+ years: 50+ years: 26 18 16 60+ 8 4 5 Some high school 27 17 21 High school graduates 54 48 45 Technical studies/some univ 12 25 26 University grad/post-grad 6 9 8 Rural 32 17 18 Urban 64 78 78 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80

Profound dissatisfaction, but regime maintains considerable base Figure 6 Generally speaking, would you say the situation in the country is going in a very good, good, bad, or very bad direction? Very good Very good/good Very bad Very bad/bad 100 98 90 90 80 70 75 71 68 60 50 54 40 45 30 29 20 24 10 2 9 7 0 3 1 0 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Poor rating for Maduro's performance, and extraordinary polarization Figure 7 In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro? Excellent/good Very bad/bad Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad February June April April 2019 – Bloc 2018 2018 2019 100 100 99 90 90 95 75 74 80 86 80 73 70 70 70 69 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 25 24 23 10 10 12 3 0 6 0 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated

Maduro has lost support from lower social classes Figure 8 In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro? Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad Education 100 90 80 84 82 70 70 60 66 65 60 50 49 40 43 30 31 29 20 17 10 16 0 Some High school Technical studies/ University grad/ high school graduates some university post-grad

Venezuelans reject other PSUV leaders Figure 9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorable Unfavorable 100 90 80 70 72 69 68 60 50 40 30 26 20 24 23 10 0 Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino

Opinions of military and their families dovetail with those of civilians Figure 10 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Favorable Unfavorable Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino 100 90 80 70 72 71 69 69 68 60 65 50 40 30 28 20 26 25 24 23 23 10 0 Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military family in families family in families family in families military military military

Government blamed for economic crisis and blackouts Figure 11 And who do you think is to blame for the economic Who is to blame for the electric blackout in situation in Venezuela: the Maduro government, the Venezuela: the Maduro government, the United United States, the opposition, or private States, the opposition, or private companies? companies? The government 64 The government 68 United States United States 12 16 The opposition 12 The opposition 9 Private companies Private companies 4 1 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80

Frustration with rejection of humanitarian aid Figure 12 Do you think that the government of Nicolás Maduro should have allowed the entry of humanitarian assistance provided by the United States, Brazil and other countries that recognize Juan Guaidó or do you think the Maduro government was right to block the entry of humanitarian aid into the country? Total Bloc 100 90 96 93 80 78 70 25 60 50 40 30 20 73 5 10 4 15 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Allowed Blocked Allowed Blocked

Disapproval of Maduro-backed institutions Figure 13 Now, I'm going to read some institutions: When I read each name, please tell me if you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the role that institution has played in the present political situation. Approve Disapprove 100 90 80 70 67 66 60 63 59 50 40 38 30 34 33 31 20 10 0 Asamblea Nacional Asamblea Nacional Tribunal Supremo Consejo Nacional Constituyente de Justicia Electoral

Large-scale migration will continue, with political impact Figure 14 Thinking about the next few months, what would you prefer: move to another country or stay in Venezuela? Bloc Total 100 90 96 9 80 70 32 60 50 47 40 43 40 30 36 56 20 8 10 4 15 0 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things go Depends on how things go

Strong Backing for Guaidó Figure 15

Guaidó is only politician with favorable rating Figure 16 I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions. Favorable Unfavorable 100 90 80 70 60 50 54 54 52 40 45 39 36 30 30 29 20 10 0 Henrique Capriles Leopoldo López María Corina Machado Juan Guaidó

Confidence in Guaidó’s leadership Figure 17 How would you rate the role played by Juan How much confidence do you have in Juan Guaidó Guaidó as interim president appointed by the to lead a political transition in Venezuela: a lot, National Assembly: excellent, good, bad or very some, little or no confidence? bad? A lot A lot/some Excellent Excellent/good None None/little Very bad Very bad/bad 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 59 50 58 50 40 40 39 30 30 32 33 30 20 20 22 10 10 16 0 0

Guaidó seen as more than just a transition figure Figure 18 If presidential elections are held while Guaidó is interim president, do you think he should run as a candidate or should he only serve as president during the transition? Bloc Total 100 90 80 85 70 28 68 60 65 50 40 30 60 20 10 15 14 13 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Run as candidate Only transitional Run as candidate Only transitional

Guaidó would easily defeat Maduro Figure 19 If presidential elections are held this year, and the candidates are Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, for whom would you vote? Bloc Total 100 90 95 93 80 8 70 75 28 60 50 40 30 20 61 6 10 3 2 1 1 13 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet

Maduro would lose election under any scenario Figure 20 And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro and And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro, Leopoldo López, for whom would you vote? Leopoldo López and Henry Falcón, for whom would you vote? 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 57 50 50 48 40 40 30 30 28 27 20 20 10 10 10 9 9 0 0 Maduro López Falcón No sabe Maduro López No sabe todavía todavía

Support for Elections Under Guaidó and Targeted Sanctions Figure 21

Clear majority wants Armed Forces to support Guaidó Figure 22 And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó? Bloc Total 100 97 90 91 80 70 67 60 31 50 40 30 58 20 10 2 1 9 0 PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated Maduro Guaidó Maduro Guaidó

Soldiers and their families want military to support Guaidó Figure 23 And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó? Maduro Guaidó 100 90 80 70 60 59 50 55 40 30 33 31 20 10 0 Soldiers/ Non-military families family in military

Opponents support amnesty for government and army Figure 24 As you know, Juan Guaidó has offered an amnesty to senior government officials, including Nicolás Maduro, and members of the army who support a transition to a new constitutional government. Crimes against humanity, such as murder and torture, would be exempt from amnesty. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with amnesty for government officials and army members who support a transition to a new constitutional government? Strongly agree Strongly disagree Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly/somewhat disagree 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 77 70 60 60 64 62 50 50 52 40 40 42 30 30 36 35 20 29 28 20 20 13 24 10 10 16 15 6 0 0 Total PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated