COLORADO NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE VOTER OPINION SURVEY March 11 th 13 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 COLORADO NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE VOTER OPINION SURVEY March 11 th – 13 th , 2019

2 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies is pleased to present the results of a 500n live telephone survey of likely 2020 General Election voters in the state of Colorado. Ø The interviews were conducted from March 11 th – 13 th , 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past general election voter turnout demographics in Colorado. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project. Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Survey Demographics 27% 48% 52% 21% 17% 19% 16% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 2% 30% 35% 80% 33% 13% 5% 2% Republican Democrat White Hispanic Black or Other African Unaffiliated Other American

4 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Survey Demographics Suburban Area Vs. Ideology Rural Area 15% 3% 28% 41% 33% 19% 36% 25% Suburban Area Big City Conservative Moderate Small Town Rural Area Liberal Unsure

5 KEY FINDINGS

6 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Key Findings: Ø At this time, likely 2020 Colorado general election voters do not have an informed opinion of the National Popular Vote law, with only 34% of respondents having a favorable opinion of it, 39% having an unfavorable opinion, and 27% not having any opinion of the law. Ø Voters are more familiar with the Electoral College than the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 49% said they had a favorable opinion of the Electoral College and 47% had an unfavorable opinion of it, and 4% had no opinion.

7 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Key Findings: Ø Colorado voters are evenly divided on a possible ballot measure that would affirm or repeal the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 47% of voters would vote yes and approve the law and 47% would vote no and reject it. Six percent of voters were undecided. Ø Support for the NPV law is strongest among Democratic and younger voters, while opposition is strongest among Republican and older voters. Unaffiliated voter opinion is evenly split, with 44% supporting the law and 48% opposing it. Ø Voter intensity is stronger among voters that oppose the law, with 35% of respondents saying they would definitely vote no and reject it compared to 23% of respondents saying they would definitely vote yes and approve it.

8 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Key Findings: Ø Opposition to the NPV ballot measure is not limited to Republicans and Trump voters. Among respondents that oppose the ballot measure, 14% intend to vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee and 13% intend to vote for “some other candidate”. Ø Historically, it has been very difficult for a Colorado ballot measure to achieve voter approval when initial support at the start of the campaign is below 55%. This survey finds voter support for the NPV law at 47%. Among respondents that are very familiar with the NPV law voter support is 30% and opposition is 69%, indicating voter opinion declines the more they learn about the law.

9 VOTER FAMILIARITY WITH THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW

10 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”? 35% 27% 26% 11% 1% VERY SOMEWHAT NOT TOO NOT UNSURE NO REFUSED FAMILIAR FAMILIAR FAMILIAR FAMILIAR AT OPINION ALL

11 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”? 34% 35% 9% 21% 1% WOMEN 18% 35% 13% 33% 1% MEN VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

12 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”? 1% 23% 39% 10% 27% 1% UNAFFILIATED 17% 35% 13% 34% 1% DEMOCRAT 39% 31% 11% 18% REPUBLICAN VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

13 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”? 31% 41% 10% 16% 1% 65+ 31% 37% 11% 21% 55-64 29% 37% 7% 27% 45-54 27% 35% 9% 27% 1% 35-44 16% 28% 15% 40% 1% 18-34 VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

14 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 How familiar would you say you are with a proposal in the legislature that will likely become law very soon called the “National Popular Vote Law” or the “National Popular Vote Interstate Agreement”? 35% 31% 9% 26% CD7 32% 26% 10% 32% CD6 26% 39% 17% 17% 2% CD5 25% 44% 12% 19% CD4 20% 36% 11% 33% 1% CD3 28% 38% 10% 23% 1% CD2 18% 31% 10% 40% CD1 VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED

15 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW IMAGE

16 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law? 27% 34% 48% 38% 32% 31% 30% 39% 21% 1% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 72% Very Favorable 16% 54% 38% 36% 34% Somewhat Favorable 18% 26% 17% Very Unfavorable 28% 10% 1% 12% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

17 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law? Very Favorable 16% 27% 34% Somewhat Favorable 18% Very Unfavorable 28% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% 39% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 46% 42% 39% 39% 39% 36% 35% 34% 31% 31% 30% 29% 25% 22% 21% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

18 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Regardless what you know about it, do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law? Very Favorable 16% 27% 34% Somewhat Favorable 18% Very Unfavorable 28% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% 39% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 49% 48% 46% 45% 43% 42% 37% 38% 37% 34% 33% 30% 29% 27% 26% 28% 24% 30% 21% 16% 15% 2% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

19 ELECTORAL COLLEGE IMAGE

20 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Electoral College process of electing the president and vice president of the United States? 4% 49% 47% 56% 54% 41% 41% 3% 5% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 84% 73% Very Favorable 32% 50% 44% Somewhat Favorable 17% 23% 14% Very Unfavorable 27% 1% 4% 6% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

21 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Electoral College process of electing the president and vice president of the United States? 4% Very Favorable 32% 49% Somewhat Favorable 17% 47% Very Unfavorable 27% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 55% 53% 53% 49% 49% 48% 47% 43% 43% 41% 6% 3% 4% 4% 2% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

22 Colorado National Popular Vote Survey, 500n, +/-4.38, March 2019 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Electoral College process of electing the president and vice president of the United States? 4% Very Favorable 32% 49% Somewhat Favorable 17% 47% Very Unfavorable 27% Somewhat Unfavorable 20% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 62% 61% 61% 58% 58% 52% 49% 45% 44% 41% 39% 35% 35% 33% 2% 3% 7% 7% 5% 4% CD1 CD2 CD3 CD4 CD5 CD6 CD7

23 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LAW BALLOT TEST