COLORADO TABOR AMENDMENT VOTER OPINION SURVEY August 5 th 7 th , - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 COLORADO TABOR AMENDMENT VOTER OPINION SURVEY August 5 th – 7 th , 2019

2 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 500n live telephone and online survey of likely 2020 general election voters in the state of Colorado. The online interviews were collected using Dynata’s online panel. Ø The interviews were conducted from August 5 th – 7 th , 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past Colorado general election voter turnout demographics for a Presidential election cycle. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Survey Demographics Among Likely 2020 General Election Voters 27% 52% 48% 21% 17% 19% 16% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1% 30% 80% 36% 33% 13% 5% 2% Republican Democrat White Hisapanic or Black or Other Refused Latino African Unaffiliated Other American

4 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Survey Demographics Marital Status 53% 23% 6% 8% 10% Married Single, Never Unmarried Living Separated Widowed Married with Partner Divorced Area Live In 47% 22% 16% 15% Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area Refused

5 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Sedgwick Logan Jackson Larimer Moffat Phillips Weld Routt 2 Morgan Grand Boulder Broomfield Washington Yuma Rio Blanco 6 Adams Gilpin 7 1 Clear Creek Denver Arapahoe Eagle Summit Garfield Jefferson Elbert Douglas Kit Carson Pitkin Lake Park 4 Mesa Lincoln Teller Delta 3 El Paso Cheyenne Chaffee 5 Gunnison Fremont Kiowa Montrose Crowley Ouray Pueblo Custer Saguache Hinsdale San Miguel Bent Prowers Otero San Juan Dolores Mineral Huerfano Rio Grande Alamosa Montezuma Las Animas Baca La Plata Costilla Archuleta Conejos Legend Denver Metro Area Inset Congressional District 4 Weld 1 Boulder 6 2 Broomfield 3 Adams 2 4 7 Gilpin 5 Jefferson 1 Denver 6 7 4 Clear Creek Arapahoe Colorado Congressional Districts

6 KEY FINDINGS

7 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Key Findings: Ø At this time, 54% of likely 2019 general election voters intend to vote yes and approve Proposition CC, 30% intend to vote no and reject it and 15% are undecided. Ø A plurality of Colorado voters, 46%, have a favorable opinion of the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of the amendment and 18% have no opinion of the amendment. Ø The primary reasons 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of the TABOR Amendment are a check on government spending, holding elected officials accountable and requiring them to explain their spending decisions.

8 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Key Findings: Ø The primary reasons 36% of respondents have an unfavorable opinion of TABOR is the belief that the amendment has had a negative impact on adequate funding for public education, roads, transportation and other government services. They also believe TABOR is unnecessary because elections provide an opportunity for voters to remove elected officials that are unhappy with their spending decisions. Ø Forty-seven percent of respondents would support a ballot measure that would allow the state of Colorado to retain revenue that would otherwise be subject to a taxpayer refund for no specific purpose. Thirty-nine percent would oppose the ballot measure and 13% were undecided.

9 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Key Findings: Ø The component of TABOR that requires voter approval for tax increases and bond measures has strong support. Among all respondents, 62% support voter approval for tax increases, 26% oppose, and 12% were undecided. Ø At this time, the full repeal of the TABOR Amendment in the 2020 election cycle is unlikely. Among all respondents, only 36% would support the full repeal of TABOR, 48% would oppose it and 16% of respondents were undecided.

10 VOTER MOOD

11 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 12% 54% 49% 43% 40% 39% 39% 17% 6% MEN WOMEN RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK 71% 65% UNSURE NO OPINION 49% 35% REFUSED 23% 21% 16% 11% 1% 8% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

12 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 12% 49% 39% RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 58% 50% 49% 46% 45% 44% 43% 40% 36% 30% 15% 14% 11% 11% 1% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

13 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 12% 49% 39% RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 68% 45% 52% 50% 50% 49% 47% 43% 40% 40% 38% 37% 36% 21% 14% 14% 12% 13% 11% 10% 1% 9% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

14 PROPOSITION CC BALLOT TEST

15 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Proposition CC Ballot Test This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%. As you may know, currently there will be a question on the ballot this November known as Proposition CC. I am now going to read to you the language of the ballot question. After hearing it, please tell me if you would vote yes and approve it, or if you would vote no and reject it. The ballot question reads as… WITHOUT RAISING TAXES AND TO BETTER FUND PUBLIC SCHOOLS, HIGHER EDUCATION, AND ROADS, BRIDGES, AND TRANSIT, WITHIN A BALANCED BUDGET, MAY THE STATE KEEP AND SPEND ALL THE REVENUE IT ANNUALLY COLLECTS AFTER JUNE 30, 2019, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY ALLOWED TO KEEP AND SPEND UNDER COLORADO LAW, WITH AN ANNUAL INDEPENDENT AUDIT TO SHOW HOW THE RETAINED REVENUES ARE SPENT? Now that you have heard the ballot question, would you vote yes and approve Proposition CC or would vote no and reject it?

16 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Proposition CC Survey Demographics Among Likely 2019 General Election Voters 47% 53% 31% 24% 18% 14% 13% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1% 29% 82% 36% 34% 11% 5% 2% Republican Democrat White Hisapanic or Black or Other Refused Latino African Unaffiliated Other American

17 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Proposition CC Ballot Test This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%. 15% 1% 54% 30% 55% 53% 34% 26% 20% 10% 1% 1% MEN WOMEN TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 73% 60% Definitely Yes, Approve 23% 49% Probably Yes, Approve 31% 32% 23% 17% 16% 14% Definitely No, Reject 17% 12% 2% 1% 1% Probably No, Reject 13% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

18 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Proposition CC Ballot Test This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%. 15% 1% Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 31% 54% Definitely No, Reject 17% 30% Probably No, Reject 13% TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 65% 58% 56% 47% 46% 37% 37% 31% 26% 18% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 3% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

19 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 Proposition CC Ballot Test This question was among 486 likely 2019 general election voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.45%. 15% 1% Definitely Yes, Approve 23% Probably Yes, Approve 31% 54% Definitely No, Reject 17% 30% Probably No, Reject 13% TOTAL YES, APPROVE TOTAL NO, REJECT UNDECIDED REFUSED 64% 60% 53% 52% 50% 50% 44% 37% 38% 30% 30% 29% 22% 24% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 11% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

20 VOTER FAMILIARITY OF THE TABOR AMENDMENT

21 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 How familiar would you say you are with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment in Colorado’s constitution? Would you say you are… 16% 3% 20% 22% 41% 37% 39% 27% 27% 17% 16% 15% 14% 2% 4% MEN WOMEN VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL 45% 39% UNSURE NO OPINION 33% 27% 26% 22% 19% 20% REFUSED 18% 17% 15% 11% 1% 2% 4% 3% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

22 Colorado TABOR Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, August 2019 How familiar would you say you are with the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, also known as the TABOR Amendment in Colorado’s constitution? Would you say you are… 16% 3% 20% 22% 39% VERY FAMILIAR SOMEWHAT FAMILIAR NOT TOO FAMILIAR NOT FAMILIAR AT ALL UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 43% 41% 36% 38% 38% 29% 29% 25% 24% 24% 22% 22% 17% 20% 16% 16% 14% 13% 9% 8% 2% 2% 1% 5% 4% 3% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+