COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION VOTER OPINION SURVEY July 15 th 17 th , - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION VOTER OPINION SURVEY July 15 th – 17 th , 2019

2 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 500n live telephone and online survey of likely 2020 general election voters in the state of Colorado. The online interviews were collected using Dynata’s online panel. Ø The interviews were conducted from July 15 th – 17 th , 2019. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past general election voter turnout demographics. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.

3 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Survey Demographics 27% 52% 48% 21% 17% 19% 16% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1% 30% 80% 36% 33% 13% 5% 2% Republican Democrat White Hisapanic or Black or Other Refused Latino African Unaffiliated Other American

4 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Survey Demographics Marital Status 54% 22% 4% 10% 9% Married Single, Never Unmarried Living Separated Widowed Married with Partner Divorced Area Live In 48% 24% 16% 11% 1% Suburban Area Big City Small Town Rural Area Refused

5 KEY FINDINGS

6 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Key Findings: Ø Voters are evenly split when asked if Governor Polis and the Democratic state legislature overreached during this past legislative session, passing bills that went too far and were out of touch with everyday Coloradans. A plurality of voters, 45%, believe that they did overreach, 40% do not think they overreached, and 15% are unsure or don’t have an opinion. Ø Despite 45% agreeing that Governor Polis and the legislature overreached this past session, 47% of voters oppose the effort to recall the Governor, 38% support recalling him and 15% are undecided. Ø Right now, nearly 30% of voters who do agree that the Governor and the legislature overreached remain unconvinced that a recall is the right course of action.

7 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Key Findings: Ø Colorado voters are evenly split regarding the direction in which the state is headed. Among all respondents, 44% think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction, 41% feel things are off on the wrong track and 15% are unsure or do not have an opinion. Ø Democratic voters have a slight edge in voter intensity heading into the 2020 elections, though Republicans and unaffiliated voters show a high level of interest as well. Ø Currently, Colorado voters prefer Democrats to have control of Congress by a 10-point margin, 47% to 37%, over Republicans.

8 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Key Findings: Ø A majority of voters, 57%, disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, compared to only 39% who approve of the job he is doing. Ø President Trump trails a generic Democratic Party candidate by 12 points, 44% to 32% in a 2020 ballot test, with 15% of voters choosing some other candidate and 8% being undecided. Ø Governor Jared Polis currently has a +12% job approval rating as 49% approve of the job he is doing, 37% disapprove and 14% are unsure.

9 VOTER MOOD

10 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 15% 44% 44% 44% 44% 39% 41% 18% 12% 1% MEN WOMEN RIGHT DIRECTION 66% WRONG TRACK 58% 47% UNSURE NO OPINION 36% 25% 23% REFUSED 19% 17% 8% 1% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

11 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Generally speaking, do you think things in Colorado are headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 15% 44% 41% 43% 50% 50% 41% 38% 32% 20% 17% 1% 9% RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK 18-44 45-64 65+ UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 51% 51% 48% 47% 47% 46% 43% 43% 41% 40% 39% 37% 31% 30% 22% 19% 18% 14% 13% 11% 2% 8% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

12 VOTER OPINION ON CONGRESS CONTROL AFTER 2020

13 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 What is your preference for the outcome of the 2020 November elections for the United States Congress? Do you want Congress to be controlled by Democrats or Republicans? 16% 50% 44% 42% 47% 32% 17% 14% 37% 1% MEN WOMEN 92% 87% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 42% 33% UNDECIDED REFUSED 24% 4% 4% 1% 6% 7% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

14 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 What is your preference for the outcome of the 2020 November elections for the United States Congress? Do you want Congress to be controlled by Democrats or Republicans? 16% 47% 37% 54% 44% 49% 38% 42% 28% 18% 17% 1% 9% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 18-44 45-64 65+ UNDECIDED REFUSED 58% 58% 51% 42% 41% 48% 44% 39% 39% 38% 37% 34% 30% 26% 26% 20% 18% 16% 12% 2% 8% 11% 1% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

15 PRESIDENT TRUMP APPROVAL RATING

16 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? 3% 1% 39% 57% 60% 54% 43% 35% 3% 4% 1% MEN WOMEN TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 90% 75% Strongly Approve 24% 58% Somewhat Approve 15% 37% 21% Strongly Disapprove 49% 4% 2% 1% 5% 1% 7% Somewhat Disapprove 8% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

17 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? 3% 1% 39% 57% 69% 54% 51% 46% 45% 25% 5% 1% 3% 1% 1% TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 18-44 45-64 65+ 70% 63% 61% 55% 53% 51% 50% 46% 43% 41% 41% 37% 37% 24% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 6% 5% 5% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

18 GOVERNOR POLIS APPROVAL RATING

19 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jared Polis is doing as Governor? 14% 49% 37% 51% 46% 45% 29% 20% 8% MEN WOMEN TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 75% 70% Strongly Approve 21% 49% Somewhat Approve 28% 30% 20% 21% Strongly Disapprove 27% 13% 13% 10% Somewhat Disapprove 10% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

20 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jared Polis is doing as Governor? 14% 49% 37% 45% 51% 51% 44% 39% 29% 20% 11% 11% TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE 18-44 45-64 65+ UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 58% 55% 55% 44% 44% 42% 47% 43% 39% 38% 40% 36% 33% 24% 22% 19% 18% 14% 14% 12% 7% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

21 2020 PRESIDENTIAL BALLOT TEST

22 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some other candidate? 8% 1% 15% 44% 32% 45% 43% 36% 28% 20% 10% 10% 1% 7% MEN WOMEN TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE TOTAL TRUMP SOME OTHER CANDIDATE UNDECIDED REFUSED 82% 73% Definitely Dem Candidate 33% 41% Probably Dem Candidate 11% 24% 21% Definitely Trump 25% 12% 4% 11% 2% 1% 7% 14% 8% Probably Trump 7% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED

23 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, the Democratic Party’s candidate or some other candidate? 15% 8% 1% 44% 32% 53% 42% 41% 41% 34% TOTAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 20% TOTAL TRUMP 20% 13% 10% 1% 1% 7% 11% SOME OTHER CANDIDATE 6% UNDECIDED 18-44 45-64 65+ REFUSED 58% 52% 48% 46% 38% 43% 38% 35% 32% 31% 30% 30% 26% 24% 22% 18% 19% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12% 2% 9% 8% 1% 2% 1% 13% 6% 5% CD01 CD02 CD03 CD04 CD05 CD06 CD07

24 VOTER OPINION ON COLORADO STATE LEGISLATURE OVERREACH IN 2019

25 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, July 2019 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Governor Polis and the Democratic state legislature overreached during this past legislative session and passed bills that went too far and were out of touch with everyday Coloradans. 15% 45% 40% 47% 43% 41% 39% 18% 12% MEN WOMEN TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED 72% 58% Strongly Agree 28% 42% 39% Somewhat Agree 17% 26% 19% 17% 16% Strongly Disagree 19% 11% Somewhat Disagree 21% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED