1 COLORADO GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY October 8 th – 10 th , 2018
2 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Methodology Ø Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results for a 500n live survey of likely general election voters in the state of Colorado. Ø The interviews were conducted from October 8 th – 10 th , 2018. Ø The overall survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval. Subgroups of voters will have higher margin of error than the overall population. Ø The survey results were weighted based upon past voter turnout demographics for a non-presidential general election in Colorado. Ø David Flaherty was the principal researcher on this project, and Courtney Sievers was the project director.
3 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Survey Demographics 25% 48% 23% 52% 19% 18% 15% Male Female 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 1% 31% 35% 80% 33% 13% 5% 2% Republican Democrat White Hispanic Black or Other African Unaffiliated Other American
4 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Survey Demographics Marital Status Suburban Area Vs. Rural Area 9% 16% 41% 67% 29% 5% 10% 11% 1% Suburban Area Big City Married Single, Never Separated Widowed Unmarried Married Divorced Living with Small Town Rural Area Partner Income Ideology 3% 25% 38% 38% 31% 34% 17% 14% Conservative Moderate Less Than $76k to $125k More Than Refused Liberal Unsure $75k $126k
5 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Congressional Districts Sedgwick Logan Jackson Larimer Moffat Phillips Weld Routt 2 Morgan Grand Boulder Broomfield Washington Yuma Rio Blanco 6 Adams Gilpin 7 1 Clear Creek Denver Arapahoe Eagle Summit Garfield Jefferson Elbert Douglas Kit Carson Pitkin Lake Park 4 Mesa Lincoln Teller Delta 3 Cheyenne El Paso Chaffee 5 Gunnison Fremont Kiowa Montrose Crowley Ouray Pueblo Custer Saguache Hinsdale San Miguel Bent Prowers Otero San Juan Dolores Mineral Huerfano Rio Grande Alamosa Montezuma Las Animas Baca La Plata Costilla Archuleta Conejos Legend Denver Metro Area Inset Congressional District 4 Weld 1 Boulder 6 2 Broomfield 3 Adams 2 4 7 Gilpin 5 Jefferson 1 Denver 6 7 4 Clear Creek Arapahoe Colorado Congressional Districts
6 KEY FINDINGS
7 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Key Findings: Ø There is clear evidence that Democrat voters are more energized and interested in the November elections than Republican voters. Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 meaning the respondent was very interested in the election, 59% of Democrat respondents are a “10” compared to 47% of Republicans. Ø Among all respondents, 46% of likely voters prefer an outcome from the election where Democrats control Congress and 40% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, 36% prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats, 23% prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans, and 41% are undecided. Ø Democrat Congressman Jared Polis leads Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton by 7 points, 47% to 40% respectively, Libertarian Scott Helker has 4% support, and 9% are undecided. This ballot test is exactly the same as the Healthier Colorado survey fielded in mid- September.
8 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Key Findings: Ø The survey included ballot test questions measuring support and opposition for the two transportation funding proposals. Voters are more likely to support and approve Proposition 109, (52% approve/23% reject/25% undecided) than Proposition 110 (35% approve/34% oppose/31% undecided). The primary difference between the two proposals is Proposition 109 would not raise taxes and Proposition 110 would. Ø Colorado voters are evenly split in their opinion of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court with 43% approving his confirmation and 43% disapproving.
9 VOTER OPINION ON CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND STATE LEGISLATURE
10 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for Congress, a Congress controlled by Democrats or a Congress controlled by Republicans? 14% 50% 43% 41% 37% 46% 15% 40% 13% 1% MEN WOMEN 96% 92% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 41% 36% 23% 2% 1% 2% 2% 6% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
11 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for Congress, a Congress controlled by Democrats or a Congress controlled by Republicans? 14% 46% 40% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 55% 50% 46% 45% 42% 41% 39% 38% 38% 37% 20% 19% 14% 9% 6% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
12 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for the State Legislature, a legislature controlled by Democrats or a legislature controlled by Republicans? 15% 50% 42% 42% 36% 46% 17% 39% 13% 1% MEN WOMEN 98% 90% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 44% UNDECIDED REFUSED 35% 22% 3% 1% 2% 7% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
13 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s elections for the State Legislature, a legislature controlled by Democrats or a legislature controlled by Republicans? 15% 46% 39% DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS UNDECIDED REFUSED 54% 49% 45% 45% 45% 41% 39% 38% 35% 35% 19% 17% 16% 11% 10% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
14 CANDIDATE AND POLITICAL PARTY IMAGE RATINGS
Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 15 Governor Candidate Image Ratings I am now going to read to you names of organizations and people that are involved in politics. After hearing each name, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of that organization or person. If you have heard of the organization or person, but do not have an opinion of them, or you have never heard of them, there are options for that as well. Let’s get started. The first name is…
16 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Jared Polis 5% 14% 45% 36% 49% 41% 37% 35% 15% 13% 3% 8% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 86% 77% Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 15% 47% 27% Very Unfavorable 23% 20% 11% 2% 9% 3% 6% 1% 8% 5% Somewhat Unfavorable 13% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
17 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Jared Polis Very Favorable 30% 14% 5% Somewhat Favorable 15% 45% Very Unfavorable 23% Somewhat Unfavorable 13% 36% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 53% 48% 46% 44% 42% 37% 36% 36% 35% 31% 18% 16% 13% 13% 8% 8% 1% 2% 7% 4% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
18 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Walker Stapleton 8% 14% 42% 36% 42% 41% 37% 35% 17% 12% 9% 6% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 85% 73% Very Favorable 23% Somewhat Favorable 19% 36% 32% 22% Very Unfavorable 24% 12% 11% 3% 9% 3% 9% 1% 5% Somewhat Unfavorable 12% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
19 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 Walker Stapleton Very Favorable 23% 14% 8% Somewhat Favorable 19% 42% Very Unfavorable 24% 36% Somewhat Unfavorable 12% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 48% 47% 42% 39% 39% 39% 40% 34% 32% 30% 20% 16% 14% 12% 12% 11% 7% 1% 1% 7% 8% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
20 VOTER OPINION OF DEMOCRAT AND REPUBLICAN PARTIES
21 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 The Democrat Party 10% 48% 42% 52% 44% 43% 40% 12% 8% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 95% 90% Very Favorable 31% Somewhat Favorable 17% 47% 28% Very Unfavorable 31% 24% 4% 1% 6% 4% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
22 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 The Democrat Party Very Favorable 31% 10% Somewhat Favorable 17% 48% Very Unfavorable 31% 42% Somewhat Unfavorable 11% TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 53% 52% 49% 49% 43% 44% 43% 40% 40% 35% 13% 12% 11% 7% 1% 6% 1% 1% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
23 Colorado General Election Survey, 500n, +/- 4.38%, October 2018 The Republican Party 9% 46% 45% 49% 46% 45% 41% 12% 1% 6% MEN WOMEN TOTAL FAVORABLE TOTAL UNFAVORABLE HEARD OF NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF REFUSED 95% 95% Very Favorable 30% Somewhat Favorable 16% 40% 36% 23% Very Unfavorable 33% 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% Somewhat Unfavorable 12% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED
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