Republic of Kenya National Opinion Poll June 15-18, 2006 International Republican Institute Strategic Public Relations and Research 1
INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY • This nationwide opinion survey was conducted from June 15-18, 2006. • 3,001 Kenyan citizens aged 18 and above were interviewed face-to-face on a household basis. • The margin of error does not exceed +/- 2 percent. • The survey was carried out on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI). • The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Strategic Public Relations and Research (SPRR), in consultation with IRI’s Nairobi office. All fieldwork was carried out by SPRR. • For more detailed methodology, please contact Peter Oriare, Strategic Public Relations and Research, (Tel: 254-20-601005; email: spr@africaonline.co.ke) 2
Respondents’ Demographic Information Monthly Income Number of respondents: 3,001 Less than Kshs 5,000 30.7% 5,001-10,000 23.9% Sex 10,001-20,000 16.6% Male 54.4% 20,001-30,000 9.0% Female 45.6% 30,001-40,000 4.9% 40,001-50,000 2.7% Age Group 50,001-150,000 2.3% 18-25 33.2% More than 150,000 0.7% 26-35 27.6% Don’t Know 3.1% 36-45 18.4% Refused to Answer 6.1% 46-55 11.2% 56+ 9.4% Location Don’t Know 0.3% Urban 42.4% Rural 57.6% Education Level No formal education 3.7% Primary 22.9% Secondary 36.6% Tertiary 25.9% University 8.1% Post Graduate 2.1% 3
Respondents’ Demographic Information Occupation Employment Status Medical 2.9% Full time formal employment 18.1% Education 0.2% Full time informal employment 27.1% Administration 2.8% Part time formal employment 5.4% Civic Leader 0.2% Part time informal employment 11.1% Housewife 4.5% Unemployed 26.1% Farmer 18.2% Student 7.5% Student 6.2% Retired 4.4% Business 18.8% Professional 18.8% No Response 0.3% Civil Servant 1.4% Clergy 0.4% Religion Unemployed 3.7% Catholic 32.9% Unskilled Laborer 13.9% Protestant 55.9% Retired 1.0% Traditionalist 2.2% House Help 1.1% Muslim 6.8% No Response 6.1% Hindu 0.2% Others 1.4% No Response 0.8% 4
VIEWS ON THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY AND THE GOVERNMENT 5
Overall, would you say that the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? 60 49.8 46.5 50 40 30 20 10 3.1 0.7 0 Right Wrong Don't Know No Response Direction Direction 6
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the government has done running the country since the 2002 election? 37.3 40 35 30 25 18.4 20 16.2 15.9 15 11.5 10 5 0.5 0.3 0 Strongly Somewhat Neither Somewhat Strongly Don't Know No Disapprove Disapprove Response Approve Approve Approve Nor Disapprove 7
Has the government done well or done poorly in fulfilling its election promises from 2002? 60 47.7 50 38.3 40 30 20 13.3 10 0.5 0.2 0 Well Neither Well Poorly Don't Know No Response nor Poorly 8
Would you say the condition of Kenya’s economy is good or bad? 50 43.2 45 38.5 40 35 30 25 17.3 20 15 10 5 1 0.1 0 Good Neither Good Bad Don't know No Response nor Bad 9
Would you say that your personal economic condition has gotten better, stayed the same or gotten worse over the past five years? 45 39.2 37.2 40 35 30 25 21.5 20 15 10 5 1.1 1 0 Gotten Better Stayed the Gotten Don't Know No Response Same Worse 10
What is the most important issue the Kenyan government should address? 30.6 Creating Employment 12.7 Poverty Reduction 12.4 Economic Recovery 9.8 Corruption 9.3 Security 4.7 Agricultural Growth 4.6 Education 4.5 Infrastructure 4.2 HIV/AIDS, other Health Issues 1.4 Constitutional Review 1.3 Political Wrangles 4.5 Others 0.9 No Response 0 10 20 30 40 11
VIEWS ON THE 2007 GENERAL ELECTION 12
. Are you likely or unlikely to vote in the 2007 general election? 100 90.5 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 5.7 2.9 0.9 10 0 Likely Neither Unlikely Don't likely nor Know Unlikely 13
Which one of the following methods do you think political parties should use to nominate their presidential candidates? 70 59 60 50 40 32 30 20 6 10 2.4 0.3 0.4 0 Direct voting Delegate Party Others Don't know No Response by all party system chairman is members automatically the candidate 14
Would the people you know be likely or unlikely to vote for a female candidate for president? 56.3 60 50 40 33.7 30 20 7.4 10 2.4 0.3 0 Likely Neither Likely nor Unlikely Don't know No Response Unlikely 15
Would voters in your constituency be likely or unlikely to vote for a female candidate for parliament? 60 48.1 50 40.3 40 30 20 8.6 10 2.5 0.4 0 Likely Neither Likely nor Unlikely Don't know No Response Unlikely 16
What is the single most important quality a parliamentary candidate should have? 34.4 Transparent/Accountable 30.8 Development Record 8.9 Education/Wisdom 7.3 Popular 7.1 Not Selfish 3 Age 1.8 God-fearing 1.4 Not Tribalistic 1.3 Patriotic 1.7 Others 1.4 No Response 0 10 20 30 40 17
VIEWS ON THE 9 TH PARLIAMENT 18
Do you approve or disapprove of the current parliament’s performance since the 2002 election? 35 31.9 30 25.9 25 21.9 20 15 11.5 7.7 10 5 0.8 0.3 0 Strongly Somewhat Neither Somewhat Strongly Don't Know No Approve Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove Response Nor Disapprove 19
Do you approve or disapprove of your own member of parliament’s performance since the 2002 election? 35 30 27.5 30 25 20 16.4 14 15 9.6 10 5 1.5 1.1 0 Stongly Somewhat Neither Somewhat Strongly Don't Know No Approve Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove Response Nor Disapprove 20
Do you think your member of parliament deserves to be re-elected? 60 54.2 50 38.7 40 30 20 10 4.1 3 0 Yes No Don't Know No Response 21
When I say “coalition” I mean two or more political parties coming together for a common cause. Do you support or oppose such coalitions? 80 73.2 70 60 50 40 24.6 30 20 10 1.5 0.7 0 Support Oppose Don't Know No Response 22
VIEWS ON CORRUPTION 23
Would you say that corruption has increased, decreased or remained the same since the 2002 election? 60 52.4 50 40 34.3 30 20 12 10 1.1 0.2 0 Increased Decreased Remained the Don't Know No Response Same 24
Do you think that the government is committed to the fight against corruption in Kenya? 60 51.5 50 44.4 40 30 20 10 3.7 0.5 0 Yes No Don't Know No Response 25
Now I’m going to read you a list of corruption cases that have been in the news recently. For each of them, I would like you to tell me whether the government is likely or unlikely to deal conclusively with them. Case Likely Unlikely Don’t No Know Response Goldenberg 23.3 67.8 8.1 0.8 Anglo 19.8 70.9 8.3 0.9 Leasing Ndungu 18.9 64.7 14.8 1.6 Report on Land Use The 15.6 69.7 13.0 1.7 Armenian (Artur) Brothers Issue 26
VIEWS ON THE MEDIA AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION 27
Overall, would you say that the Kenyan media is free or not free to accurately report news? 90 78.6 80 70 60 50 40 30 16 20 4 10 1.5 0.1 0 Free Neither free Not Free Don't Know No Response Nor not Free 28
Overall, would you say that Kenyans are free or not free to openly express their political opinions? 85.5 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10.6 10 3 0.7 0.1 0 Free Neither Free Not Free Don't Know No Response nor Not Free 29
Would you say that Kenyans’ freedom of expression has increased, decreased or remained the same since the 2002 elections ? 90 81.5 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 8.7 8.3 10 1.4 0.2 0 Increased Decreased Remained Don't Know No Response the same 30
Which of the following statements do most you agree with? The government is never justified in 59.4 raiding a media house The government is sometimes 30.2 justified in raiding a media house The government is always justified in 5.2 raiding a media house 4.6 Don’t Know 0.5 No Response 0 20 40 60 80 31
Where do you get most of your news? 63.2 Radio 23.8 Television 10.2 Newspaper Neighbors and 1 Friends 0.4 Others 1.1 No Response 0 20 40 60 80 32
VIEWS ON THE CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT FUND (CDF) In 2003, the Kenyan Parliament established the CDF. It seeks to decentralize development planning by devoting a percentage of the national budget to constituency-level development projects, to be directed by local committees. However, critics have pointed out that the member of parliament representing each constituency wields a great deal of influence over the makeup and decisions of the committee, and some members have been accused of using the CDF as a tool for political and financial advancement. 33
Have you ever heard or read about the CDF? 100 88.8 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10.6 10 0.6 0.4 0 Yes No Don't Know No Response 34
Would you say that the CDF program in your constituency is managed in an open way? N = 2,654 70 62.6 60 50 40 28.5 30 20 7.9 10 1 0 Yes No Don't Know No Response 35
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