Univision News September Poll: Poll Overview & Key Findings @SergioGarciaRs Sergio I. Garcia-Rios
The Univision Latino Poll – Methodology Collaborative approach Univision News Univision - Latino Decisions - North Star Opinion Research polling strives for the most accurate and representative Sample consists of validated registered voters Latino sample in All respondents drawn from and matched against the voter file the industry. Hybrid Mode – Online, Cell, Landline Bilingual always offered at point of contact Every potential Weighted to match Census CPS voter demographics Latino voter must have an equal Two Polls opportunity to National Latino – 1,043 Latino registered voters (+/- 3%) participate and be Texas Voters included in our Statewide all racial groups – 1,004 representative sample of Texas polling. registered voters (+/- 3.1%) Oversample of 641 Latino Texas registered voters (+/- 3.9%) 2
The Univision Latino Poll – Methodology Univision Polling Approach Univision News polling strives for the most accurate Second major poll of the 2020 campaign cycle (June, pre-Miami debate) • and representative Additional future polls planned around debates and primary elections • Latino sample in Univision News will offer consistent and accurate insights into the Latino • the industry. electorate Every potential Content: Latino voter must Democratic primary • have an equal Presidential • opportunity to Trump vs generic Democrat participate and be • Specific candidate matchups included in our • polling. Senate election in Texas • El Paso and Gun Violence • Race relations • 3
Trump Approval – National Latino Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove Trump approval remains low, 78% 78 of Latino voters 75 disapprove of Trump, up from 75% disapproval in June. 25 22 June 2019 Sept 2019 4
Democratic Primary Candidate Favorability Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate name} - National Latino Registered Voters 59 Since June, Biden Sanders 67 and Sanders experienced 56 favorability gains of Biden 64 +8, and Warren +9. 51 Castro 54 44 Warren 53 49 Harris 50 June 2019 42 O'Rourke Sept 2019 48 5
Democratic Primary Vote – National Latino [Dem and Dem leaners only] Among the candidates running for President, who are you currently planning to vote for? 20 Biden, Sanders, Biden 22 Castro, Warren are now all in double 19 digits. A notable Sanders 20 shift from our June poll. 9 Castro 12 7 Warren 11 7 Harris 8 June 2019 Sept 2019 7 O'Rourke 6 6
Racism against Latinos major problem Generally speaking, how much of a problem do you think racism against Latinos and immigrants is today? Among Latino voters, 87% think Not at racism against all 4 Not too immigrants and much Latinos is a 10 problem today, including 62% who say it is a "major Somewhat of problem" Major problem a problem 25 62 National Latino Registered Voters 7
White supremacist groups pose threat Please indicate if you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: White supremacist groups pose a threat to the United States Among Latino voters, 74% believe Strong that White Disagree 5 supremacist groups Somewhat disagree pose a threat to 11 the United States. The majority, 57%, Strongly agree strongly agree. Somewhat agree 57 27 National Latino Registered Voters 8
Factors responsible for El Paso shooting How much responsibility – if any – does each item bear for the mass shooting that took place at a Walmart in El Paso 69% of Latino Great deal Good amount Not much None voters make a direct connection Rise of white supremacy between language 49 25 15 11 used by President Trump and the El Assault and military firearms Paso shootings 48 26 14 12 74% sight the rise Trump language in 46 23 17 14 of white speeches/tweets supremacy as a contributing factor Lack of mental health 46 30 17 7 treatment 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 National Latino Registered Voters 9
Wide support for stronger gun laws Please indicate if you agree or disagree: Congress should pass a law expanding background checks to all gun sales and transfers. Please indicate if you agree or disagree: Congress should ban the sale of assault weapons like the AR-15 rifle. Strongly disagree 3 An overwhelming Strongly disagree 7 Somewhat disagree 5 majority (92%) Somewhat disagree 9 Somewhat agree believe Congress 16 Somewhat agree should pass a law 19 expanding background checks on all gun sales and transfers; 76% Strongly agree strongly agree. Strongly agree 76 And, 84% of 65 Latinos support a ban on assault weapons Background checks Ban sale of all gun sales and transfers assault weapons 10 National Latino Registered Voters
Presidential Vote in Texas Statewide Thinking ahead to the 2020 election for President of the United States, do you plan to vote for [ROTATE: Donald Trump or the Democratic Candidate?] In a statewide sample (all racial groups) Texans Texas Total Democrat Total Trump Undecided report a +5% Registered 11 47 42 preference for a Voters Democratic candidate over Trump in the 2020 presidential race. Total Democrat Total Trump Texas Latino Undecided Voters 12 69 19 Total Democrat Total Trump Undecided 11
Castro and O’Rourke - President or Senate Are you satisfied with the current field of Democratic candidates running for Senate in Texas, or do you think former [Congressman Beto O'Rourke / Housing Secretary Julian Castro] should drop out of the presidential race and instead run for U.S. Senate in Texas? Most Texas voters do not want for Castro or O'Rourke 30 Beto O'Rourke should drop out of the to drop out of the presidential race and run for Senate presidential race to 35 run for Senate. There is a bit more support among Latinos to see 31 Castro in the Texas Julian Castro should drop out of presidential Senate race race and run for Senate 42 though. Texas Registered Voters Texas Latino Voters 12
Texas: Democratic Primary Candidate Vote [Dem and Dem leaners only] Among the candidates running for President, who are you currently planning to vote for? 26 O'Rourke is a O'Rourke 19 leading choice ranking first among 19 Texas Latinos and Biden statistically tied 20 with Biden for first 16 among all voters Sanders 13 statewide. 13 Castro 12 6 Texas Latino Voters Warren 12 Texas Registered Voters 3 Harris 5 13
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