Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Nevada, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Key findings from a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in Nevada, with 100 cell phone interviews, conducted September 19-20, 2012. Project #121330

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a statewide telephone survey conducted in Nevada. The survey was completed September 19-20, 2012, among 500 likely voters, with 100 cell phone interviews, and has a margin of error of +4.38%. Glen Bolger was the principal researcher on this project. Jim Hobart was the project director, and Court Hall provided analytical support.

While Nevadans continue to be pessimistic, their mood about the state’s direction has improved. “Would you say things in Nevada are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?” State Mood Trend 80% 77% 76% 69% 60% 54% 37% 33% 24% 18% 17% 11% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Right Direction Wrong Track

The generic ballot remains tied. “If the election for State Legislature were being held today, for whom would you vote…the Republican candidate OR the Democratic candidate?” 44% 42% 42% 43% 41% 40% 34% 28% 2/10 9/10 2/12 9/12 Republican Democrat

Voters continue to approve of the Governor’s job performance. “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Brian Sandoval is doing as Governor?” Sandoval Approval Trend Strongly Approve: 23% Strongly Disapprove: 10% 62% 63% 50% 47% 33% 26% 24% 25% 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Total Approve Total Disapprove

Voters are divided over whether the Governor understands the problems facing people like them. “Do you think the Governor understands the problems facing people like yourself, or do you think he does not understand the problems facing people like yourself?” 53% 52% 51% 51% 48% 45% 41% 40% 41% 39% 2/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Yes, Understands the Problems Facing People Like Yourself No, Does Not Understand the Problems Facing People Like Yourself *2/10 poll taken while Jim Gibbons was Governor ^Split Sample (N=251)

A large majority of Nevada voters continue to believe their State Legislators do not understand their problems. “Do you think your state legislators understand the problems facing people like yourself, or do you think they do not understand the problems facing people like yourself?” 65% 62% 60% 58% 58% 56% 38% 37% 37% 33% 31% 31% 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Yes, Understands the Problems Facing People Like Yourself No, Does Not Understand the Problems Facing People Like Yourself ^Split Sample (N=250)

Base GOPers and base Democrats are most interested in the upcoming election. “And how interested are you in the election for such offices as President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Congress? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested. Of course, you can choose any number between one and ten.” By Party 91% 91% 90% 82% 79% 79% 78% 68% 67% 46% Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Democrat Base Democrat (23%) (13%) (22%) (13%) (28%) 8-10 (High) 10 (Very High)

Nevadans say the economy, jobs and education should be the top issues for the Governor and State Legislature. “Which ONE of the following issues should be the top priority of Nevada’s Governor and State Legislature? And which of the following is the NEXT most important priority?” Combined Choices 2/12 9/12 48% Jobs 52% Jobs 45% 41% The Economy The Economy 36% 32% Education Education 21% 16% Housing/Home Foreclosures Housing/Home Foreclosures 14% 12% State Budget & Spending State Budget & Spending 13% 10% Illegal Immigration Gas & Energy Prices 9% 11% Illegal Immigration Health Care 6% 8% Taxes Health Care 5% 7% Gas & Energy Prices Taxes 3% Moral Values 3% Moral Values 1% Transportation/Roads/Gridlock 2% Don't Know 1% 1% None of These Don't Know 1% 1% Transportation/Roads/Gridlock None of These

Jobs and the economy are the top issues for Independents. By Party Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Democrat Base Democrat (23%) (13%) (22%) (13%) (28%) The Economy The Economy Jobs The Economy Education (53%) (53%) (56%) (60%) (63%) Jobs Jobs The Economy Jobs Jobs (48%) (49%) (44%) (49%) (41%) Education Illegal Immigration Education Education The Economy (26%) (22%) (28%) (33%) (27%) State Budget Housing/Home Housing/Home Housing/Home Health Care & Spending Foreclosures Foreclosures Foreclosures (19%) (21%) (17%) (19%) (18%)

The Presidential race is tied. “If the election for President were being held today, for whom would you vote… Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, Republicans; Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Democrats; Virgil Goode and Jim Clymer, Independent American; Gary Johnson and James Gray, Libertarians; or None of the Above?” Total Romney/Ryan: 46% Total Obama/Biden: 46%* None of Johnson/ the Above Gray 3% Undecided 1% 2% Goode/ Clymer 1% Definitely Romney/ Ryan 41% Definitely Obama/ Biden 39% Probably Romney/ Probably Obama/ Ryan Biden 5% 8% *Denotes Rounding

Romney leads among Independents. Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Party +93% +61% +8% -42% -93% 96% 96% 78% 66% 44% 36% 24% 17% 3% 3% Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Democrat Base Democrat (23%) (13%) (22%) (13%) (28%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Romney leads big among older men and seniors, while Obama leads among younger voters. Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Gender/Age + Seniors -10% +24% -13% +1% +25% 60% 59% 53% 49% 47% 46% 43% 36% 36% 34% Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ 65+ (28%) (19%) (21%) (29%) (21%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Romney leads in Washoe County and the rural parts of the state, while Obama leads in Clark County. Romney vs. Obama Ballot by Region -10% +15% +26% 60% 55% 51% 41% 40% 34% Clark Washoe Rural (67%) (20%) (14%) Total Romney/Ryan Total Obama/Biden

Heller continues to lead on the Senate ballot. “If the election for U.S. Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote… Dean Heller, Republican; Shelley Berkley, Democrat; David VanderBeek, Independent American; or None of the Above?” Intensity Definitely Heller: 37% Definitely Berkley: 32% 48% 47%* 44% 44% 42% 39% 9/11 2/12 9/12 Heller: Berkley: *Denotes Rounding

Heller continues to lead among Independents. Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Party 2/12 +86% +54% +17% -39% -76% 90% 87% 70% 64% 51% 34% 25% 16% 11% 4% 9/12 +87% +61% +11% -29% -77% 90% 82% 74% 53% 40% 29% 24% 13% 5% 3% Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Democrat Base Democrat (23%) (13%) (22%) (13%) (28%) Total Heller Total Berkley

Seniors are now firmly behind Heller. Younger voters are split. Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Gender/Age + Seniors 2/12 +10% +15% -15% -1% -1% 56% 53% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 41% 39% 38% 9/12 0% +22% -1% +5% +17% 55% 53% 45% 42% 42% 40% 37% 36% 36% 33% Men 18-49 Men 50+ Women 18-49 Women 50+ 65+ (28%) (19%) (21%) (29%) (21%) Total Heller Total Berkley

Heller now leads big in Washoe County; his support in Clark County has dropped since February. Heller vs. Berkley Ballot Trend by Region 2/12 -1% -2% +34% 61% 49% 47% 46% 45% 27% 9/12 -8% +32% +32% 58% 57% 45% 37% 26% 25% Clark Washoe Rural (67%) (20%) (14%) Total Heller Total Berkley

Swing voters are looking for someone new, while base voters are more supportive of incumbents. “Thinking about the state and local elections this November, are you more likely to vote for the incumbent, or more likely to vote for someone new?” Overall By Party Total Someone New: 39% +6% +33% +33% +24% -22% Total Incumbent: 29% Much More Likely for Refused Incumbent 2% 14% Depends/ Don't Know Somewhat 54% 52% 30% More Likely 47% for 45% Incumbent 15% 33% 27% 25% 21% 21% 19% Much More Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Base Somwhat Likely for (23%) (13%) (22%) Democrat Democrat More Likely Someone for Someone (13%) (28%) New New 18% Total Someone New Total Incumbent 21% *Denotes Rounding

Nevada voters increasingly believe the worst is over for the state. “Nevada has recently been going through a difficult time. Do you feel that the worst is over or is the worst is still to come?” 62% 64% 57% 56% 55% 52% 50% 41% 46% 38% 37% 36% 32% 30% 5/09 2/10 9/10 2/11 9/11 2/12 9/12 Worst is Over Worst is Still to Come

A majority of Independents say they are worse off than they were four years ago. “And, thinking now just about you, would you say you are better off or worse off than you were four years ago?” Overall By Party About the Same 69% 15% Better Off 65% 38% 56% 54% 52% 32% 31% 27% 23% 21% 19% 15% 12% 12% 8% Base GOP Soft GOP Independent Soft Base Worse Off (23%) (13%) (22%) Democrat Democrat 47% (13%) (28%) Better Off Worse Off About the Same *Denotes Rounding