Cuban Public Opinion Survey Survey Methodology Dates of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Cuban Public Opinion Survey

Survey Methodology  Dates of Interviewing: The fieldwork was conducted January 28 - February 10, 2011.  Data Collection Method: Stratified-intercept methodology based on personal, face-to-face interviews in Cuba.  Sample Size: 463 Cuban adults (age 18 and older).  Sample: Interviews were conducted in twelve (12) Cuban provinces: Ciudad de La Habana, Provincia de La Habana, Pinar del Río, Matanzas, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Ciego de Ávila, Camaguey, Holguín, Guantánamo, Las Tunas.  The sample was stratified by province, then by sub-units within each province. Interviewees were allocated by gender and age quotas. The final selection of each interviewee was random.  Respondents: The sample selection for province, gender and age are based on the last available Cuban census data, released in 2002.  Maximum Sample Margin of Error: Margin of error of ± five percent for a 95 percent level of confidence.

Demographics

Demographics: Gender and Age Age Gender 40 to 49 20.7% 30 to 39 24.0% 50 to 59 Female Male 16.4% 46.0% 54.0% 60 or 18 to 29 Older 21.8% 17.1% 4 4

Demographics: Province 5

Demographics: Education and Race Education Race Do Not Know No Answer None 5.2% 3.7% 6.3% Primary White 55.7% 9.7% University or Higher 22.0% Intermediary 24.0% Afro-Cuban 44.3% Secondary 29.2% 6 6

Demographics: Profession or Job Full Sample Those Not Working (N = 125) 13.6% 1.9% 35.2% 40.0% 27.0% 12.5% 3.2% 24.8% 40.8% 0.9% Not Working Works for the Cuban Government in a Leading Position Student Retired/Pensioner Works for the Cuban Government as an Employee Works for a Mixed or Foreign Company Works as Autonomous, Farmer or Private Business Owner Works Full-Time in the House Works in the Informal Economy as Main Source of Income Not Working 7

Demographics: Receiving Remittances from Family Members or Friends Abroad Full Sample Those Receiving Remittances (N = 118) No Answer At Least Every 2.4% Year Yes 38.8% 25.5% At Least Every Six Months 30.6% Once a Month No 30.6% 72.1% 8

Perspectives on Cuba

Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very bad? 40% February 2011 35.3% 35.0% August 2009 33.3% November 2008 31.4% 33.7% 35% April 2008 31.3% 28.9% October 2007 29.9% 30% 26.7% 18.2% 25% 22.2% 20.8% 19.9% 19.9% 15.3% 20% 15.5% 15.4% 16.2% 13.8% 15% 12.1% 9.8% 10% 2.4% 4.2% 1.0% 0.5% 5% 1.6% 2.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0% So-So Very Well Well So, So Badly Very Badly No Answer 10

Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very bad? (by age) 1.3% 3.1% 2.5% 100% 11.9% 12.6% 6.3% 15.8% 90% 15.2% 80% 37.5% 22.4% 21.5% 70% 38.7% 40.6% 60% 50% 29.1% 36.8% 40% 38.5% 34.2% 30% 35.6% 20% 24.1% 21.1% 10% 13.5% 14.6% 10.9% 7.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0% 0.9% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or Older Very Well Well So-So Badly Very Badly No Answer 11

Generally speaking, would you say things in Cuba are going very well, well, so-so, badly or very bad? (by education) 100% 1.8% 2.0% 4.4% 11.9% 13.8% 10.8% 11.8% 90% 11.1% 80% 24.4% 31.4% 70% 36.3% 34.5% 37.8% 60% 50% 37.8% 40% 36.3% 33.3% 36.0% 41.4% 30% 20% 20.0% 16.7% 10% 17.8% 12.6% 10.3% 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0% None Primary Intermediary Secondary University or Higher Very Well Well So-So Badly Very Badly No Answer 12

What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 60.7% 40.0% Low Salaries / High Cost of Living 42.6% 43.1% 42.5% 12.7% 19.7% Food Scarcity 12.8% 6.8% 11.6% 11.2% 12.0% Double Currency Standard 7.6% 13.8% 2.2% 5.0% 1.4% February 2011 Lack of / Dilapidated Housing 7.9% 2.4% 3.8% August 2009 1.3% 9.5% Lack of Freedoms / Political System 6.9% November 2008 8.9% 18.2% April 2008 3.5% 8.8% Embargo / Isolation 6.4% October 2007 8.5% 4.8% 1.1% 1.6% Health / Lack of Medicines 2.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.4% 2.3% Poor Transportation Infrastucture 4.7% 4.1% 3.6% 0.4% 0.2% Other (Drugs, Insecurity, Corruption) 1.7% 2.5% 1.2% 2.4% 2.8% There are No Problems 3.5% 1.5% 6.3% 0.4% 0.5% No Answer 1.4% 2.7% 1.4% 0.9% Do Not Know 13 Hurricanes 1.9%

What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by age) 14

What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by education) 15

What do you think is the biggest problem in Cuba? (by receipt of remittances) 2.5% 4.4% 100% 8.9% 1.7% 4.3% 8.5% 90% 0.6% 6.5% 4.2% 4.3% 80% 9.3% 70% 60% 50% 58.5% 67.4% 40% 30% 20% 10% 13.6% 10.9% 1.7% 0% .9% Yes Do Not Receive Remittances Medicines Food Salary Double Currency Embargo Transportation Housing Lack of freedoms Other 16

Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba’s biggest problem in the next few years? 17

Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba’s biggest problem in the next few years? (by age) 18

Do you believe the current government will succeed in solving Cuba’s biggest problem in the next few years? (by education) 100% 5.5% 6.9% 7.0% 7.4% 12.9% 3.4% 1.5% 90% 3.0% 80% 70% 60% 74.4% 83.5% 76.3% 50% 68.3% 86.2% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18.6% 15.8% 14.8% 11.0% 3.4% 0% None Primary Intermediary Secondary University or Higher Yes No No Answer Do Not Know 19

Overall, would you say your family’s economic situation has gotten worse, improved or stayed the same from two years ago? 20

Attitudes Toward Political and Economic Change

If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system – with multi-party elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression – would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? 4.5%8.0% February 2011 78.2% 9.3% 5.8% August 2009 75.2% 19.0% 4.6% November 2008 63.0% 32.4% 13.6% April 2008 61.5% 24.9% October 2007 75.6% 14.2% 10.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In Favor Opposed No Answer Do Not Know 22

If you could, would you vote in favor or against such a political change? (by age) 100% 6.9% 7.2% 11.4% 11.9% 3.6% 90% 29.1% 9.4% 14.5% 80% 70% 60% 24.1% 50% 93.1% 89.2% 79.2% 40% 73.7% 30% 46.8% 20% 10% 0% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or Older In Favor Against No Answer 23

If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current political system to a democratic system – with multi-party elections, freedom of speech and freedom of expression – would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by education) 100% 3.4% 8.1% 8.9% 8.8% 11.1% 10.3% 0.9% 90% 2.9% 4.4% 2.2% 8.1% 3.9% 7.4% 11.1% 80% 13.8% 70% 60% 50% 84.3% 82.9% 40% 79.3% 75.6% 72.4% 30% 20% 10% 0% None Primary Intermediary Secondary University or Higher In Favor Against No Answer Do Not Know 24

If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current economic system to a market economy system – with economic freedoms, including opportunities for Cubans to own property and run businesses – would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? 25

If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current economic system to a market economy system – with economic freedoms, including opportunities for Cubans to own property and run businesses – would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by age) 1.8% 2.6% 3.1% 100% 2.0% 1.8% 7.6% 2.6% .9% 1.3% 5.2% 90% 7.6% 80% 15.2% 70% 60% 50% 98.0% 97.3% 93.4% 90.6% 40% 69.6% 30% 20% 10% 0% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or Older In Favor Against No Answer Do Not Know 26

If you were given the opportunity to vote to change from the current economic system to a market economy system – with economic freedoms, including opportunities for Cubans to own property and run businesses – would you vote in favor of, or against, that change? (by education) 1.5% 2.9% 2.7% 100% 3.4% 0.7% 1.0% 6.7% 4.5% 0.7% 2.9% 2.2% 10.3% 90% 2.2% 80% 70% 60% 50% 97.0% 93.1% 92.8% 88.9% 86.2% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% None Primary Intermediary Secondary University or Higher In Favor Against No Answer Do Not Know 27

Do you currently have a job? (N = 463) Formal Economy Informal Economy (N = 266) (N = 197) 28

How concerned are you that you will lose your job in the next 12 months? (Formal Economy; N = 266) 29

Does your salary cover your needs in a satisfactory manner? ( Formal Economy; N = 266) 30

Does your salary cover your needs in a satisfactory manner? (by age) ( Formal Economy; N = 266) 100% 90% 31.3% 34.9% 38.8% 80% 41.3% 45.5% 70% 60% 50% 34.7% 46.5% 54.2% 40% 36.4% 46.0% 30% 20% 18.4% 16.3% 10% 18.2% 9.5% 14.6% 8.2% 3.2% 2.3% 0% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60 or Older It is Largely Sufficient It is Barely Sufficient It is Not Sufficient It is Not Sufficient At All 31