Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections Paul Davison, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Workshop: Local Population Estimates and Projections Paul Davison, Research Team Leader Stirling Council

Content • My experiences only* (may/ june 2009) • POPGROUP & Other resources • Workshop activity * compare with Fife, Highland, Aberdeen City/Shire, G&CV et al

Drivers • Local Development Plan (also Local Housing Strategy/ HNDA) • Promoting discussion and greater understanding • Investigating scenarios and aspirations • Encouraging a vision

Development Plan (LDP) Local Area

Defining Geographies

Scenarios 1. Principal Projection . Assumptions as for standard GRO(S) projections. 2. New-world order (v1) Reduced in-migration and fertility in early period of projection. 3. V1 variant projection (v1f) – as scenario v1 but no fertility adjustments from principal. 4. Pessimistic scenario (v2) Lower net working- age in-migration and fertility throughout projection. 5. Aspirational scenario (90k) – 90,000 for LDP area by 2032

GRO(S) Inputs for defined area • Fertility, Mortality and Migration estimates • Household estimates and Headship rates projections, communal establishment figures

Pop Projections Pop Scenarios POPGROUP Spreadsheet HH Projections Headship Scenarios Headship Scenarios Spreadsheet Housing Unit Stock, vacancies, demolitions, 2 nd homes Requirements

Population Projections 92,000 90,000 88,000 86,000 84,000 82,000 80,000 Principal v1 78,000 v1f 76,000 v2 90k 74,000 72,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Household Projections 44000 42000 40000 38000 Principal 36000 v1 v1f v2 90k 34000 32000 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Projected Housing Requirements • No. of housing units • With and without Major Growth Area (MGA) Population Projection v1 (realistic) 90k (aspiration) Year with MGA without MGA with MGA without MGA 2012 -397 -142 -221 46 2017 -1171 486 -791 1000 2022 -438 2282 152 3027 2032 2382 5257 4050 6925 Negative figures indicate a projected surplus in housing

POPGROUP http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/ • Any area or sub-populations. • Past information and their assumptions about the future for births and fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration • Standard cohort component method to produce projections • Provides results in Excel sheets with data extraction and chart routines available. • POPGROUP Input data available from GRO(S) • Additional local data on request • Training & online resources

Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area Population Base for year: 2006 Annual Assumptions Go to Births Go to Differentials Go to TFRs Fertility Population Estimates and Forecasts Stirling_SC_Area MORTALITY DIFFERENTIALS Options wizard ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ (by which to multiply the single year age-sex schedule) Check sums of all persons entered …….. VALIDATE Total, all groups Annual Assumptions Stirling Council Area 87,810 87,810 Go to Differentials Go to Migrants Go to SMigRs Year beginning July 1 Validate POPGROUP - Population Estimates and Forecasts BIRTHS Year beginning July 1 Options Migration Population Group …………………………….. Options w izard 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~shortcuts~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RUN THE MODEL Sex Age Stirling Provide Total SC_area Population Group: Stirling Council Area Provide total births VALIDATE male 0 Information for this scenario 446 446 Trend Total Trend total births male 1 482 482 Migrants Year beginning July 1 a Provide Age-sex Provide births by sex male 2 528 528 Options a a a a a a a a a a a a a male 3 Trend Age-sex Scenario identifier: Principal_v1 498 Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below 498 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 male 4 464 464 Provide total migrants Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below Data male 5 484 Total 484 Contact details (to be included on all output files) Trend total migrants male 6 512 Males 512 Organisation/Department Name: Stirling Council Research team a a a a a a a a a a a a a a male 7 Females 574 Provide age-sex mgts 574 Data Total male 8 566 566 Other information NOTE Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below Sex Age male 9 555 555 (e.g. contact details) male Newborn/ 0 0.76 male 10 529 529 male Data 1-4 male 11 551 0.76 551 Total FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS (by which to multiply the single age schedule) male 12 585 585 male 5-9 Sex Age 0.76 2032 Final year for this forecast male 13 577 577 male 10-14 0.76 male 14 598 598 Year beginning July 1 male 15-19 0.76 male 0-4 106 102 97 97 99 96 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 male 15 Double click to browse for directory or workbook names 571 571 Options 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 male 20-24 0.76 male 5-9 male 16 68 65 64 64 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 590 590 Default Directory for the input workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_inp\ Provide total male 25-29 male 17 656 male 0.76 656 10-14 74 70 69 68 68 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 Directory for the output workbooks: I:\RESEARCH\Shared\2.0 Major Ongoing Tasks\Population\stirling forecasts\1_out\ Trend total male 18 869 869 male 30-34 0.76 male 15-19 343 332 330 325 323 320 317 317 317 317 317 317 317 3 a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a Provide age values male 19 Save your input f 735 735 male 35-39 0.76 male 20-24 171 163 159 158 155 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 1 Trend age values male 20 723 723 Input workbook names (you do not need to give the .xls suffix for any workbook names) running the mode male 40-44 0.76 male 25-29 127 123 117 114 113 111 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 1 male 21 Double click any option you wish to select (or de-select) for a year and then fill in the relevant data below 656 656 Base population popbase male 45-49 0.76 male 30-34 male 22 136 127 122 122 121 118 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 1 625 625 Births & fertility fert_v1 Migration We Data male 50-54 0.76 male 23 549 Total male 549 35-39 112 110 103 103 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 Deaths & Mortality mort Pop'n Housing Age male 24 male 490 490 55-59 0.76 male 40-44 81 77 76 75 74 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 female In-migration from the UK (optional) male 25 15-19 Mig_INUK_v1 50% 100% 506 506 1.00 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 male 60-64 0.87 male 45-49 46 44 44 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 female 20-24 male 26 392 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 392 Out-migration to the UK (optional) Mig_OUTUK_v1v2 50% 0% male 65-69 0.87 male 50-54 43 39 38 38 37 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 female 25-29 male 27 427 427 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 In-migration from Overseas (optional) 0% 0% male 70-74 0.87 female male male 28 30-34 55-59 34 32 32 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 285 285 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.03 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 Out-migration to Overseas (optional) 0% 0% male 75-79 female 35-39 0.87 male 29 318 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 male 318 60-64 25 23 24 21 20 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Special Groups (optional) female 40-44 male 30 male 304 304 1.00 80-84 1.06 1.10 1.12 1.12 1.10 1.06 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 1.01 male 65-69 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 female male 31 45-49 378 378 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.04 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 male 85+ 1.01 male 70-74 11 11 12 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 male 32 382 382 Output workbooks (named automatically from the scenario identifier)

Workshop Task • Sunnyside and Raintown District Council • In Groups – Same Task • Scribe, Reporter & Artist in Residence