Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP Katerina - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Scottish regional population projections with POPGROUP Katerina Lisenkova Edinburgh June 26, 2008

Presentation outline • POPGROUP set up for regional projections • Interpreting results • Making your own projections

Presentation outline • POPGROUP set up for regional projections • Results and interpretation • Making your own projections

Background • Motivation is to set-up facility for local authorities to produce their own population projections at regional level • POPGROUP software was selected for this purpose • Selected POPGROUP options resemble GROS projections procedure but do not follow it 100% • Each local authority will get input files with principal assumptions to use in POPGROUP • Data from the GROS and ONS was manipulated to fit into POPGOUP format • Provided assumptions can be changed to produce different population projections at regional level

Population projections Age-sex structure of population in year y + Fertility rates Age-sex Structure of Births - Mortality rates Age-sex structure of Deaths + / - Migration rates/ counts Age-sex structure of migrants = Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1

Population projections Age-sex structure of Don’t know population in year y + Fertility rates Age-sex Structure of Births - Mortality rates Age-sex structure of Deaths + / - Don’t know Migration rates/ counts Age-sex structure of migrants = Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1

Population projections Age-sex structure of Don’t know population in year y + Fertility rates Age-sex Structure of Births - Don’t know Mortality rates Age-sex structure of Deaths + / - Don’t know Migration rates/ counts Age-sex structure of migrants = Age-sex structure of population in year y+ 1

Calculation of age/ age-sex specific rates Standard schedule Age/ age-sex x specific Scotland level differential Regional level Total x differential or Age-sex x specific differentials Age/ age-sex = specific rates

POPGROUP: input files • Base population –by sex and single year of age • Mortality/ fertility assumptions –Standard schedule by single year of age and sex –5-year age group differentials for each year of the projection –Local authority specific total fertility and age-specific mortality differentials • In and out migration assumptions –Standard schedule by single year of age and sex –Number of migrants by 5-year age groups and sex

Base population

Standard AS fertility ( m ortality) schedule

Fertility ( m ortality) differentials

Regional fertility ( m ortality) differentials

Standard AS m igration schedules

Num ber of m igrants

Presentation outline • POPGROUP set up for regional projections • Results and interpretation • Making your own projections

Aberdeen total population 215,000 210,000 205,000 200,000 195,000 190,000 185,000 POPGROUP GROS 180,000 175,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Selected age groups Aberdeen 0-15 2.0% 34,000 1.5% 32,000 1.0% 30,000 0.5% 28,000 0.0% 26,000 -0.5% 24,000 -1.0% POPGROUP GROS 22,000 -1.5% 0-15 16-25 26-49 50-64 65+ Total -2.0% 20,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 16-25 26-49 35,000 80,000 75,000 30,000 70,000 65,000 25,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 20,000 POPGROUP GROS POPGROUP GROS 45,000 15,000 40,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 50-64 65+ 44,000 55,000 42,000 50,000 40,000 45,000 38,000 40,000 36,000 35,000 POPGROUP GROS POPGROUP GROS 34,000 30,000 32,000 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Presentation outline • POPGROUP set up for regional projections • Results and interpretation • Making your own projections

Changing assumptions • Don’t change standard schedule • To change fertility/ mortality assumptions – Change differentials � Scotland level � Regional level • To change migration assumptions – Change number of in or out migrants

Example • Double net migration – Increase in-migration – Decrease out-migration – Change both • Determine important age groups • Compare results

Example: results Total 0-15 250,000 35,000 30,000 200,000 25,000 150,000 20,000 15,000 100,000 10,000 50,000 Principal Example Principal Example 5,000 0 0 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 16-25 26-49 35,000 80,000 70,000 30,000 60,000 25,000 50,000 20,000 40,000 15,000 30,000 10,000 20,000 Principal Example Principal Example 5,000 10,000 0 0 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 50-64 65+ 45,000 60,000 40,000 50,000 35,000 30,000 40,000 25,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Principal Example Principal Example 10,000 5,000 0 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Percentage difference with official projections 2.00% 1.50% 0-15 16-25 26-49 50-64 65+ Total 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030