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Nov 10, 2023 •327 likes •444 views

Calculating Farehams Housing Need b What are household projections and why are they important? Household projections are the starting point for assessing local housing need. The projections show the household numbers that would

  1. Calculating Fareham’s Housing Need b

  2. What are household projections and why are they important? • Household projections are the starting point for assessing local housing need. • The projections show the household numbers that would result if previous demographic trends in population and household formation continue. • They are not forecasts – they do not attempt to predict the impact of future Government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that may influence household growth. b

  3. Household Projection Methodology Household Projections Provides more detailed Projection for total Stage 1 Stage 2 breakdown of number of household types households b

  4. Recent Changes to the Methodology • Household projections used to be published by MHCLG, however, this changed to ONS for the 2016 based release. • The main changes include: ➢ In the 2014-based method the data included a marital status breakdown. This was removed from the 2016-based method as no up to date information available. ➢ The 2014-based projections used data from five census points whereas the 2016- based projections uses only the two most recent census points. b

  5. What the changes in methodology mean? • The outcome of the change was a reduced number of additional households projected: 159,000 additional households each year compared with the 210,000 previously projected. • However MHCLG have made it clear that 2016-based household projections should not be used for assessing housing requirements. • The higher 2014-based household projections should be used for assessing local housing need. b

  6. How the Different Household Projections Influence Housing Need Standard Methodology Housing Need Using 2014-Based and 2016- Based Household Projections 857 900 800 700 595 600 544 479 478 462 500 400 346 348 300 Fareham Gosport Havant Portsmouth 2014-Based 2016-Based b

  7. Implications for Fareham • Household projections are the starting point for assessing local housing need under the new Standard Methodology • The standard methodology is broken down into 3 stages: 1. Setting the baseline using national household growth projections from ONS 2. Adjust baseline to take account of affordability. This uplift is based on house price to earnings ratios. 3. Stage 3 involves applying a cap to limit the increase in the minimum annual housing need figure an individual authority can face. b

  8. Standard Methodology for Housing Need Standard Method Summary for Fareham Projected household growth over next 10-years = 398 homes per year Affordability uplift – house price to earnings ratio = 146 homes per year Overall housing need = 544 homes per year (398 + 146) b

  9. Fareham’s Housing Need Breakdown of Fareham’s Housing Need based on the Standard Methodology 600 500 146 128 400 300 200 398 351 100 0 2014-Based 2016-Based Household Projections Affordability Uplift b

  10. Any questions? b

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