Future prospects for Spains population: The role of INEs population - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Future prospects for Spain’s population: The role of INE’s population projections Sixto Muriel de la Riva Deputy Director of Population Statistics National Statistics Institute 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What does INE tell about the future of Spain population? We go down Spain faces a perfect demographic Spain will lose 5 millions of storm: emigration, ageing and low inhabitants in the next 40 fertility. Since 2018 there will be more years. Older than 64 will be deaths than births 37% of the total population. El País, 20th November 2012 ABC, 20th November 2012 Spain loses population for first time in 40 years Spain will lose population this year and will decrease more than 1 million till 2022 The evolution of population will become the funding of the welfare system unsustainable Cinco Días, 20th November 2012 Expansion, 20th November 2012 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What is a population projection? � A population projection is NOT a forecast. � A population projection is an statistical simulation of the future population, based on several hypothesis about the future demographic evolution. � Purpose of INE’s population projection for Spain : showing where the present population structure and the recent demographic trends would lead us in the coming future. 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

So, INE’s population projection for Spain are… � Objective: simulation of the future consequences of the current population pyramid and demographic behaviours. � Useful: warning of possible future scenarios and risks. � Relevant: guaranteed by a continuous updating. 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Last ten years trends in fertility rates by age are extrapolated to the future Projection of fertility rates Ages 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 120 100 80 Projected fertility indicators 60 1,6 31,60 31,40 40 1,5 31,20 1,4 20 31,00 MAC TFR 1,3 30,80 0 30,60 1,2 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 30,40 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 30,20 2 1,0 30,00 Year 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total Fertility Rate Mean Age at Childbearing 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Last ten years trend in mortality risks by sex and age are extrapolated to the future Projection of mortality risks by age Males 1,0000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 0,1000 0,0100 0,0010 0,0001 0,0000 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Current migration rates by sex and age are applied to the future population Projected immigration rates by age group and world region Projected emigration rates sex and age Males 0,9 0,035 0,8 0,7 0,03 0,6 0,025 0,5 0,4 0,02 0,3 0,2 0,015 0,1 0,01 0 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0,005 e - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - d 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 s á 0 M Age groups 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 4 8 2 6 0 0 4 8 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 1 EU Rest of Europe Africa North America Age Central America and Caribbean South America Males Females Asia Oceania 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Spain would have started a long period of population decrease Evolution of the Spain's population 2,00 47.500.000 45.000.000 1,50 42.500.000 Inhabitants 1,00 40.000.000 (%) 37.500.000 0,50 35.000.000 0,00 32.500.000 -0,50 30.000.000 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 Relative population growth Total population 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The ageing process would be joined to the loss of population Spain's population pyramid 1 00+ Females 95 Males 90 85 80 75 2052 70 65 60 2042 55 50 2032 45 40 35 2022 30 25 2012 20 1 5 1 0 5 0 1 00 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 1 00 Males+females=10000 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The dependency rate would reach almost 100% in forty years Dependency rates 120,00 100,00 Dependency rates 80,00 % 60,00 Year Older than 64 Younger than 16 Total 40,00 2012 26,14 24,25 50,39 20,00 2022 33,30 24,87 58,17 0,00 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2032 45,23 22,56 67,79 2042 Year 62,19 24,37 86,56 2052 73,00 Total 26,54 Younger than 16 99,54 Older than 64 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

What is behind these results? 1º. A long cycle of descending number of births is expected. 2º. Life expectancy will keep a positive trend, beyond random fluctuation. 3º. An extension of the present migration intentions. 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

1º. 2009 opened a expected long cycle of descending evolution of births Natural growth of the Spain population 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 -100.000 -200.000 -300.000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Births Deaths Natural balance 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis Females between 15 and 49 years old 12000000 11500000 11000000 10500000 10000000 9500000 9000000 8500000 8000000 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Year 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

The decrease of births is the long term consequence of past fertility crisis Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old Annual variation rate of females between 15 an 49 years old Spanish women Foreign women 2 30 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1,5 -0,2 25 1 -0,4 20 -0,6 0,5 15 -0,8 10 0 -1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 -0,5 -1,2 0 -1,4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -1 Year Year Año 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

2º. Life expectancy increases in 1 year every 4-5 years Life expectancy at birth 95 90 85 80 75 70 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 2051 Males Females 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

3º. These results are based on the present migrations trends Annual external migration flows 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Immigrations Emigrations 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Two final remarks: � Robustness of ageing: the result of a population projection depends on the hypothesis it is based on. However, a future scenario of ageing seems to be very robust for modern societies. � Ageing indicators should be analized with a wide perspective: past evolution of ageing indicators might give us a new vision of the ageing problem. 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013

Different projections with quite similar results in terms of ageing for Spain Percentage of population older than 64 45,00 40,00 35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PPLP 2012-2052 (INE) EUROPOP 2010 (EUROSTAT) WORLD POPULATION PROSPECT 2010 (NNUU) 9th meeting of the Working Group on Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Barcelona, 3-8 June 2013