+ MN WIC Conference Susan Brower, State Demographer October 2013
*WIC + demographics 101 Topics * 4 trends for that will impact your work in the today coming years *Your insights and questions
+ WIC demographics 101
+ Number of low-income (<185% FPL) children under age 5 118,201 102,675 86,776 1990 2000 2007-2011
+ More than 1 in 3 new mothers have low-incomes New mothers with low-incomes (<185% FPL) 2007-2011 Low-income 37%
+ WIC-eligible children considerably more diverse than in past decades 140,000 120,000 100,000 Other/Multiracial Hispanic 80,000 Black 60,000 Asian American Indian 40,000 White 20,000 - 1990 2000 2007-2011
+ Number of births has dropped since the recession T otal births Minnesota 1990-2010 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 68,407 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Birth rates have declined among + younger women, remained the same for older women Births per 1,000 women 140 25-29 120 30-34 100 80 20-24 60 35-39 40 15-19 20 40-44 0 45 and up 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
+ …and birth rates have declined among some populations of color Births per 1,000 women 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Black White Asian American Indian
+ Poverty rates have been growing, especially among children
+ Aging Trend #1: Population aging is beginning to affect MN and the nation
+ Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 91 85 71 67 55 47 - - - - - 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
+ Number of older adults will increase substantially over the next 20 years Change in older adults, age 65+ (Thousands) 335 285 97 91 85 71 67 66 55 56 47 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Minnesota State Demographic Center
+ Why are changes so marked now? Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2010 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 65 years 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000 Female Male Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ For the first time in MN history: More 65+ than school-age by 2020 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 18-24 800,000 65+ 600,000 5-17 400,000 200,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center
+ Increasingly our demographics will change the demand for services General Fund Expenditures Within Health & Human Services FY 2012-2013 Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion) All other areas Medical Assistance Expenditures 19% K-12 Higher for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% Education Education of GF spending (5.5 billion) 42% 8% MA expenditures include basic Health & Human care, long-term care waivers and Services long-term institutional care 31% Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long- Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012
From 2008: If State Health Care Costs Continue Their Current Trend, State Spending On Other Services Can’t Grow 8.5% 9% Annual Ave Growth 2008- 8% 7% 6% 5% 2033 3.9% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0.2% 0% Revenue Health Care Education & All Other General Fund Spending Outlook, presentation to the Budget Trends Commission, August 2008, Dybdal, Reitan and Broat
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ Plans to Cover the Cost of Long T erm Care Baby boomers in MN, 2010 Source: Transform 2010 Survey, Minnesota Department of Human Services
+ MN’s labor force growth is projected to slow Average Annual Labor Force Growth, 1980-2035 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: MN State Demographic Center projections
+ Trend #2: Minnesota and the T win Cities are becoming more diverse
+ 50 years of growing diversity in our region, state, nation Percent Of Color, 1960-2010 50% U.S. MN Twin Cities 45% 40% 36% 35% 30% 24% 25% 20% 17% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: mncompass.org
2000: Few cities had populations of color > 15% Source: PolicyMap 2000 Census data Source: PolicyMap 2010 Census data
2010: Many cities had populations of color > 20% Source: PolicyMap 2010 Census data
+ A portrait of Minnesota, 2011 Percent White (non-Hispanic) and Of Color Minnesota, 2011 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 Of Color 40 to 44 White (non-Hispanic) 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
+ 25% International 20% immigration has been increasing 15% in recent 10% 7% decades… 5% 0% Percent Foreign Born Minnesota 1970-2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ …but immigration is 25% not a new 20% 20% phenomenon in 15% MN 10% 7% Percent Foreign Born 5% Minnesota 1970-2009 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ Percent of MN young people who are “children of immigrants” Under age 20, it’s 1 in 6 Under age 5, it’s 1 in 5 “Children of immigrants” are foreign -born themselves, or have one or two foreign- born parents
+ Minnesotans with language barriers (likely linguistically isolated) Minnesotans 5+ with limited English skills, by home language, 2006-2010 Spanish 50,600 Miao, Hmong 14,200 Cushite/Beja/Somali 9,000 Vietnamese 5,900 Russian 3,700 Laotian 2,500 Mon-Khmer/Cambodian 2,100 Chinese 1,900 German 1,700 French 1,200 Amharic/Ethiopian 1,000 Arabic 700 Source: IPUMS version of 2006-2010 American Community Survey. Tabulations by MN State Demographic Center.
+ Our foreign-born population is becoming increasingly diverse 100% 90% 80% 70% Oceania 60% North America 50% Africa 40% Latin America 30% Asia 20% Europe 10% 0% Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series
+ Most of MN’s recent population increase resulted from natural increase (births-deaths) Minnesota Population Change 600,000 500,000 400,000 Total Change 300,000 Natural Increase Migration 200,000 100,000 0 1990-00 2000-10
+ Not from around here? Good. We need you. Net migration Natural change (births-deaths Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.
+ Not from around here? Good. We need you. Source: MN State Demographic Center projections, October 2013.
+ Trend #3 Post- recession growth looks new and different
Percentage change 2000-2010 U.S. Census Bureau
+ Population growth rates have converged over the last decade Annual percentage change in population 5.0% 4.0% Benton, Stearns, Olmstead 3.0% Exurban 2.0% Greater MN 1.0% Hennepin, Ramsey 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Suburban -1.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
+ Trend #4: Income inequality widening – poverty rates remain high
+ Percent in Poverty, 1980-2011 Individuals in Households with Income Below the Federal Poverty Threshold 20% 18% U.S., 16% 16% 14% 12% 10% MN, 12% 8% Recession 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey 2011 Poverty threshold for a family of four = $22,811
+
+ QUIZ QUESTION: What share of Minnesota’s Black children live in poverty? 1 in 10 A. 1 in 8 B. 1 in 4 C. 1 in 2 D. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey.
+ In Minnesota 5 in 10 Black children, 4 in 10 American Indian children 3 in 10 Hispanic children 2 in 10 Asian children, and 1 in 10 White children LIVED IN POVERTY IN 2012
+ 2012 unemployment and poverty rates by race, Minnesota Unemployment Child (<18) Poverty Poverty (16+) All 8% 11% 15% Asian 7% 16% 20% Am. Indian 19% 32% 38% Black 18% 38% 46% White 5% 8% 8% Multiracial 12% 22% 23% Hispanic 11% 26% 30% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey.
+ Gains in 4- year HS graduation… But still a long ways to go Source: mncompass.org
+ U.S. data: T op 1/5 th of households have widening share of income
+ Minnesota is historically well- positioned to be competitive Source: mncompass.org
+ Questions? Comments? Susan Brower This presentation can be found here: http://www.demography.state.mn.us/
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