Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Susan Brower, Minnesota State - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Coalition of Greater Minnesota Cities Susan Brower, Minnesota State Demographer July 2015

MN ranks highly on a large number of indicators Source: Minnesota Compass

• Population growth since the recession 3 Big • Aging, aging, aging • Increasing diversity — ethnicity, language, Demographic religion, etc. Trends

Trend 1 Post-recession growth: What’s changed? What’s stayed the same?

U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Population loss along western edge of state, down into Southwestern prairies has been long- standing Source: CURA Reporter, Winter/Spring 2014 U.S. Census Bureau data

Population growth rates have converged over the last decade Annual percentage change in population 5.0% Benton, Stearns, 4.0% Olmstead Exurban 3.0% Greater MN 2.0% Hennepin, Ramsey 1.0% Suburban 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -1.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Note: Suburban=Anoka, Dakota, Source: U.S. Census Bureau Washington, Exurban=Carver, Chisago, Isanti, Scott, Sherburne, Wright

Growth rates are converging nationally too Source: Brookings Institution

Fargo, Twin Cities metros grow quickly, others stable Average annual growth 2010-2014, MN Metros 2.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

In rural areas, nature drives population change McGranahan, 1999: Natural amenities: climate , topography and water explain a large proportion of all non-metro population growth

Spencer Platt, Getty Images, 2014

Hans Mattson on Minnesota’s Climate 1872

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: MN State Demographic Center, Annual Population Estimates Alexandria Waite Park Moorhead Perham “Coalition” cities, 2010-2014 Average population growth (percent), Bemidji Sartell Detroit Lakes Little Falls Park Rapids La Crescent St. Peter Mankato St. Joseph Biwabik Rochester Morris Grand Rapids Babbitt Dodge Center Worthington Thief River Falls Moose Lake North Mankato East Grand Forks Bagley Pelican Rapids Rushford Mountain Iron Grand Marais Austin Roseau Cloquet Fergus Falls Janesville Gilbert Ely Aurora Warren Hoyt Lakes Princeton Willmar Brainerd Le Sueur Marshall Red Wing Owatonna Litchfield Crookston Duluth Wadena Warroad St. James New Ulm Winona Glenwood St. Charles Windom Plainview Hinckley Hutchinson Albert Lea Waseca Slayton Eveleth Virginia Luverne Redwood Falls Two Harbors Breckenridge Elbow Lake Staples Glencoe International Falls Olivia Sleepy Eye Pipestone Fairmont Winsted Ortonville Benson Granite Falls Sandstone Renville

Recap: Growth at a glance • Metro and urban areas have different growth drivers • Big change since the recession for densely populated, urban areas and their suburbs • More of the same for rural areas of MN since the recession. • Greater MN population growth is simultaneously strong , stable and declining. • Natural amenities are Minnesota’s “secret sauce” and its “kryptonite”

Trend 2 Population Aging

How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade? Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands) 91 85 71 67 55 47 - - - - - 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Unprecedented increases in MN’ s “older adult” population Change in older adults, age 65+ (in thousands) 335 285 97 91 85 71 67 66 55 56 47 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s 20s 30s 40s 2050s Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

Why are the changes so marked now? Population by age and sex Minnesota, 2015 90+ 85 to 89 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 years 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 Female 40 to 44 Male 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 250000 150000 50000 50000 150000 250000 Source: MN State Demographic Center Projections

Minnesota’s projected net migration and natural change, 2012-2065 Source: State Demographic Center projections, U.S. Census Bureau data used as base population for projections

Budget pressures will change More 65+ than school-age by 2020 1,556,161 1,254,770 671,188 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 18-24 65+ 5-17 U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

Changing demand for public services General Fund Expenditures Within Health & Human Services • Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF All other spending (8.5 billion) areas • Medical Assistance 19% K-12 Higher Expenditures for the Elderly Education and Disabled: 16% of GF Education 42% 8% spending (5.5 billion) • MA expenditures include Health & basic care, long-term care Human waivers and long-term Services institutional care 31% Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+ 38,000 32,000 25,000 13,000 8,000 4,000 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Trend 3 Increasing Diversity

50 years of growing diversity in our region, state, nation Percent Of Color, 1960-2010 50% U.S. MN Twin Cities 45% 40% 36% 35% 30% 24% 25% 20% 17% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: mncompass.org

Between 2000 and 2010 most of Minnesota’s growth was Populations of Color White 14% Of Color 86% 350,000 more Minnesota residents in 2010 than in 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Black, Latino and Asian populations growing rapidly Populations of color, MN 300,000 250,000 American Indian 200,000 Asian 150,000 Black 100,000 Hispanic Two or more races 50,000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Number of foreign born in Minnesota 1920-2012 489,979 400,263 396,176 291,141 256,705 230,924 151,925 114,108 105,400 102,100 Source: Tabulated from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, U.S. Census Bureau data

Source: Department of Homeland Security, Primary Refugee Arrivals to MN

MN is becoming more diverse…unevenly Source: mncompass.org

Demographic change will shape the future…but not completely determine it • These data are sobering IF we continue to adhere to the policies and institutional arrangements that we have built for our demographic past. • Aging trend will bring new opportunities ; and a new license to innovate

Hans Mattson on Minnesotans, 1872

Take aways for Greater MN Cities • The state, the U.S., the globe is headed toward slower- and no-growth scenarios. Greater MN has the opportunity to lead on slow growth done right. • From a demographic perspective there is no single “Greater Minnesota.” • As our communities age, diversity and population growth go hand-in-hand.

Stay tuned, keep in touch. mn.gov/demography susan.brower@state.mn.us Twitter: @MN_StateData