Population and Migration Statistics Committee 25 May 2011 Variant - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Population and Migration Statistics Committee 25 May 2011 Variant Household Projections and Alternative Headship Rates Valerie Hale NRS: Household Estimates and Projections

Variant Household Projections For the 2008-based household projections both High and Low Migration variants were published. Further variants are now possible: � High and Low Life Expectancy � High and Low Fertility � Zero Migration

Variant Household Projections, Scotland 3,000,000 High Migration High migration High Life Expectancy 2,900,000 High Fertility 2.9 million Principal Low Fertility Low Life Expectancy 2,800,000 Low Migration Zero Migration Households 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 Zero migration 2.6 million 2,400,000 2,300,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year

Variant Household Projections, Dundee City 80,000 High Migration High Life Expectancy 78,000 High Fertility Zero migration Principal 76,000 Low Fertility Low Life Expectancy Low Migration Households High migration 74,000 Zero Migration 72,000 70,000 68,000 Low migration 66,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year

Incorporating Survey Data 2008 household types 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 adult 1 adult 1 adult, 1 1 adult, 2+ 2 adults 2+ adult, 1+ 3+ person male female child children children all adult Projections SHS adjusted SHS APS

Alternative Headship Rates The effect that headship rates have on household projections was investigated with various options being tested: � Option 1 – Keep constant at 2001 headship rates � Option 2 – Project trend to 2011 then keep constant � Option 3 – mid-point between the projected trend from 1991 and 2001 Census points and the constant 2001 headship rate � Option 4 – household proportions adjusted to Scottish Household Survey smoothed 2006-2008 proportions

Alternative Headship Rates, Scotland 2,900,000 Principal SHS adjusted 2,800,000 Mid-point headship rates Projected 2011 headship rates 2001 headship rates 2,700,000 Households 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Year

Variant and Alternative Household Projections for 2033, Scotland High Migration 2,929,300 2,851,980 High Life Expectancy 2,822,600 High Fertility Principal 2,812,520 2,802,840 Low Fertility SHS adjusted 2,802,400 Low Life Expectancy 2,771,910 Mid-Point values 2,737,230 Low Migration 2,695,460 Projected 2011 headships 2,653,450 2,653,000 2001 headships 2,641,710 Zero Migration 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Households

Future Work • For the 2010-based household projections we propose publishing the principal projection plus the high and low migration projections only • We also intend to further investigate the incorporation of survey data into the household projections

Variant and Alternative Household Projections for 2033, Scotland High Migration 2,929,300 2,851,980 High Life Expectancy 2,822,600 High Fertility Principal 2,812,520 2,802,840 Low Fertility SHS adjusted 2,802,400 Low Life Expectancy 2,771,910 Mid-Point values 2,737,230 Low Migration 2,695,460 Projected 2011 headships 2,653,450 2,653,000 2001 headships 2,641,710 Zero Migration 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 Households