Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK Sylvie - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK Sylvie Dubuc UPTAP workshop, Leeds, 23-25 of March 2009

General project Demographic characteristics by ethnic and religious groups & projections with D. Coleman (co-I)

Fertility, ethnicity and religion: recent trends in the UK � Why fertility estimates by ethnic and religious groups? � how ethnicity and religion may impact on fertility? � social and cultural composition of the UK population, changes and future expectations � To develop plausible fertility assumptions for population projection models � No direct methods available

Introduction � Ethnic groups show differences in fertility � For the UK, fertility rates by ethnic groups up to 2001 � need to create / update existing rates, inter-censuses rates � Religious affiliation may support childbearing (norms supporting childbearing, rejecting contraception/abortion) � No estimates available by religious groups for the UK � Few reports on fertility estimates by religion (e.g. for Austria (Goujon et al.2005,), for Europe (Kaufman, 2007)

Introduction � Here LFS data (2001-2006) is used together with the Own Child Method to produce fertility estimates by ethnic and religious groups from 1987 to 2006 at national level. � Ethnic and religious group � of the mother only � 2001 census definitions (LFS 2001 to 2006)

Introduction � Outline � The OCM and method refinements � TFR trends and ASFRs patterns by ethnic groups, 1987-2006. Is there convergence between ethnic groups? � UK born and foreign born, impact on fertility. Does country of up-bringing impact on reproductive behaviour? � TFR by religious groups. Does religion matter?

Own Child Method � LFS data, household survey, yearly � Surveys pooled across years � Matching children to mothers within household � Allowing reverse survival calculations � 15 years estimates (14 prior to the survey) � Berthoud, 2001; Coleman and Smith,2005

Total Period Fertility Rate (TFR) Good agreement of ONS data with LFS-OCM data UK total fertility 1961 - 2006, from own-child method and vital registration TFR 3.50 3.00 UK total fertility own-child UK total fertility vital registration 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Figure 1. Total fertility from own-child method from LFS compared with ONS registration statistics, 1961 - 2006 Total Period Fertility Rate is the average number of children that women would have if they experienced the ASFRs for a particular year throughout their childbearing lives

Refined Own Child Method � Retro-correction for mortality Reverse survival table � � using the ONS England & Wales death rates � by age and sex between 1986 and 2006. � Matching children to women within family unit instead of household to minimise possible mismatching � Correct for small underestimations � Variation 1.25% for all women 2000-2006 � 0.37% due to mortality correction � underestimation vary across groups (1 to 2.7%)

Fertility trends by ethnicity 4.5 4.0 Wbritish 3.5 Wother Caribbean 3.0 Bafrican TFR Indian 2.5 Pakistani Bangladeshi 2.0 Chinese 1.5 1.0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Total Period Fertility rate by ethnic group, 1987-2006

� Fertility estimates for women of mixed origin � Small numbers � Mixed population: majority children CI95% CI95% CI95% CI95% Group Group Period Period TFR TFR UL UL LL LL Mix-Africa Mix-Africa 1987-2006 1987-2006 1.640 1.640 1.915 1.915 1.366 1.366 Mix-Asia Mix-Asia 1987-2006 1987-2006 1.659 1.659 1.870 1.870 1.448 1.448 Mix-Carib Mix-Carib 1987-2006 1987-2006 1.949 1.949 2.155 2.155 1.743 1.743 Mix-Other Mix-Other 1987-2006 1987-2006 1.460 1.460 1.668 1.668 1.251 1.251 Mix-Total Mix-Total 1987-2006 1987-2006 1.724 1.724 1.837 1.837 1.612 1.612 1987-2006 ALL UK TFR: 1.78

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity WBritish WBritish 120 120 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 100 100 80 80 1987-1997 1998-2006 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Delayed childbearing WOther WOther 120 120 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 35-39 35-39 35-39 40-44 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 45-49 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers

White other UK-born versus foreign born White Other UK-born women 120 Births per 1,000 women 100 80 1987-1997 60 1998-2006 40 20 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 35-39 35-39 35-39 40-44 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 45-49 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers White Other foreign-born women (2/3 in 2002-2006) immigration 120 Births per 1,000 women 100 and 80 delayed childbearing 60 40 20 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 35-39 35-39 35-39 40-44 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 45-49 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity Indian Indian 140 140 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 120 120 100 100 1987-1997 80 80 1998-2006 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 4 4 4 9 9 9 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Fertility decrease and delayed childbearing

Age Specific Fertility Rates of women by ethnicity Pakistani Pakistani 220 220 200 200 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 35-39 35-39 35-39 40-44 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 45-49 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers Bangladeshi Bangladeshi Fall in fertility 240 240 220 220 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 200 200 at all ages 180 180 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 35-39 35-39 35-39 40-44 40-44 40-44 45-49 45-49 45-49 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers

Delayed fertility of the Indian UK-born… Births per 1,000 women 120 100 80 1987-1997 1998-2006 60 40 20 0 Age group of mothers UK-born Indian women: 5 years ASFRs Indian Indian 140 140 Births per 1,000 women Births per 1,000 women 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 15-19 15-19 15-19 35-39 35-39 35-39 45-49 45-49 45-49 20-24 20-24 20-24 25-29 25-29 25-29 30-34 30-34 30-34 40-44 40-44 40-44 Age group of mothers Age group of mothers

Fertility and religion 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 TFR 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh Jew Other Not stated Religion TFR average 1988-2006 by religious groups

Crossing Indian ethnicity and religion 50% 28% 13% % of Indian women (15-49 yrs) in 2006 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 TFR 1988-1997 1998-2006 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Hindu Sikh Muslim TFR for Indian ethnic group by main religious denomination* *Only the main religious groups are represented Comparison of TFR for All Muslim with Indian Muslim, 1988-2006 Period All Muslim Indian Muslim 1988-1997 3.1 2.9 1998-2006 3.0 2.2

Conclusions (Method, Religion) � LFS-OCM has been refined and provides good estimates for inter census fertility rates by ethnic and religious groups. � Differences exist in the TFR by religious groups � No evidence for Christian faith supporting higher fertility compared to non–religious. � Recent relatively low TFR of Indian Muslim compared to all Muslim women, suggests ethnicity more than religion influences fertility behaviour. � socio-economic differences by ethnicity within Muslim group? � Cultural influence of the region of origin (of immigrant generation) on fertility behaviour independent of the religious affiliation? � Difference in the duration of settlement?

Conclusions (ethnicity) � Converging TFR between ethnic groups, albeit at different speeds. � Preliminary results for UK-born women by ethnicity further support the “converging trends” hypothesis. � Ethnic fertility assumptions: � with stable flow of migration by ethnic groups the UK-born proportion of the main ethnic minorities will increase � preliminary results of fertility estimates by UK-born women suggest that less differences across groups (migration been constant) should be expected in the future decades.