Session 2.2 .2 Conceptual l Approaches on Sustain inabil ilit ity Outlo look of Flowchart in Mongoli lia and 10 STEPS Imple lementation Pathways Aida Karazhanova EDD, ESCAP to Maxim imiz ize Impact Investment in in Achie ieving 1 17 SDGs
OUTLINE OF METHODS • Regional SDG Outlook • Systems Thinking Approach at national level in Mongolia • Rapid Strategic Impact Assessment for SOM • 10 steps in development of country Sustainability Outlook
Flowchart in 10 STEPS Country Sustainability Outlook and Implementation Pathways to Maximize Impact Investment in Achieving 17 SDGs Step I Step X • Start with the End in Mind – • Programme of Implementation What is your Vision for a of SDGs with financing schemes Sustainable Future? (incl. impactful investments and green financing schemes) Followed by M&A, RSEA CREATE: COLLABORATIVE FRAMEWORK for ACHIEVING THE SDGs, SDV and MEAs PICK: POLICY LEVERS OF MULTIPLE IMPACTS
Flowchart for Development of the Country Sustainability Outlook and Pathways for Policy Implementation to Maximize Impact Investment in Achieving SDGs in 10 STEPS Step VIII Step IX Step I • Scenario Planning • Adaptation Pathways (Plans) • Start with the End in Mind – What is your Vision for a Sustainable Future? Handouts Handouts and Rapid Diagnostic Tools Step X Step II Step VII • Identification of Thematic • Quantitative Modelling of • Implementation of SDGs with Priorities Aligned with SDGs System Relationships financing schemes (profiles) and the Country’s SD (Causality and Correlation (incl. impactful investments and Goals Statistical Analysis) green financing schemes) See commitments to MEAs , Rapid SEA, EPR Rapid Diagnostic Tools Followed by M&A, RSEA Step III Step VI • Systems Mapping at goal & • Revisit System Maps with SDG target level indicators, and mapping of institutions Look at Scoring SDG attainments Rapid Diagnostics Tools Step IV Step V • Identification of Policy • Formulation of Leverage Points Integrated Policy Statements Pick Leverage Points with Multiple Impacts To address the cluster of SDGs
Additional Slides (5-18): Elaborating Steps
Assessment of SDG readiness Systems thinking approach SDG baseline data and the gap analysis to integrated SDG planning ESCAP methodology is • SDGs’ aspirational state providing tools to analyze the types of inter-linkages between the targets of 17 SDGs, Gap strengths and directions ( for Planners can identify and • policy SDG’s analyze the leverage points for inter- vention) baseline most effective interventions for the new dynamics of the 17 th indivisible SDG’s system 8.2 8.4 15.1 2030 1987 2017 - 30 years + 13 6.1, 6.2, present 6.3, 6.6 years state 11.6 2.4 Timeline 13.1
Leveragin ing poli licy entr try poin ints ts The main question that we look to answer in a systems analysis is: “How do we change the structure of systems to produce more of what we want and less of that which is undesirable?”
Ele lements ts of f Systems Thin inking Create • Baseline system model/ Systems Casual Loop design Diagram Systems • Identified leverage points Model Qualitative • Apply data to qualify the casual effects modelling • Noise residuals
Scenario building — a qualitative tool for compelling narratives step 8 Use scenarios to support science-based exploration of uncertainty and complexity high Complexity – we do not understand the system COMPLEXITY Uncertainty – we low cannot predict the low high UNCERTAINTY outcome; it is indeterminate Source: Henrichs et al. 2010
Scenario Planning: Summar Scenario Planning: Summary General Applicability Applicability for shock and resilience Category testing Predictive Deals with foreseeable challenges (e.g., May hold historical biases as they cannot address • • population growth) complex interactions between future drivers of scenarios Informs planning for future developments change • Limited application to deal with deep uncertainty • (for which relative probabilities are unknown) Exploratory Enables participatory decision- making Provides a wide range of future possible changes • • Can be tailored to target specific social groups that are outside the remits of previous • scenarios (e.g., business owners, residents, policy makers) experiences Explores consequences of alternative Enables the consideration of multiple futures to • • developments under deep uncertainty advance conventional practice for many organisations Assists decision-makers to select options/ policies • that are likely to have better performance (more robust and flexible options) under different future uncertainties The resilience of some strategies may not be • compatible with any of the scenarios Normative Deals with deep uncertainty Creates pathways to achieve intended outcomes • • Informs the development of alternative pathways that can take shocks and surprises into account • scenarios Assists in the operationalization of adaptive A vision of a resilient system in its most extended/ • • management practices holistic form can guide the development of Supports anticipatory approaches that address pathways • future developments, challenges and opportunities
Scenario Scena rio Planning Planning Steps Steps Facilitation team task Stakeholder task Identify certain & Define Focal Develop Scenarios uncertain drivers of Question based on drivers change Test Policies for Assemble Policies for SDV Cluster Develop storylines to SDV Cluster Sectorial Sectorial Objectives communicate Roadmap Objectives against scenarios Review SDV Backcasting to highlight SDV Develop Cluster Sectorial Cluster Sectorial Objectives Adaptation Implement review needs Objectives & Pathway Policies Identify Indicators for MREIL
Assem Assembling bling the P the Pathw thways ays for Impleme or Implementa ntation tion of of Inter Interna nationall tionally y Ag Agreed eed Commitment Commitments 1. Develop the overall potential Adaptation Pathways roadmap Identify potential strong / weak “Leverage Points” (including 2. policy intervention/s) 3. Select the pathway(s) 4. Identify turning, tipping & trigger points 5. Determine contingency actions Identify milestones (and “achieve -by dates) 6. 7. Establish a preferred Adaptation Pathways Plan and Map (addressing: actions and decisions that need to be made now and those that can be postponed; summarised targets, problems and potential and preferred pathways) 8. Confirm MERIL arrangements
Example of policies that could be explored through scenario-building: Sustainable development and the food-energy-water nexus
Scenar Scenario Planning io Planning Backcasting (http://www.naturalstep.ca/backcasting
Sustainability Assessment essment Objectives-led / Broad Scope (Objec (O ectiv ives es-le led) Stra trategic ic Ass sses essment sses ility Ass inabili ‘Triple Bottom - line’ Assessment ustain Sus STRATEGICNESS Of the Focus and Scope Combined/ Connected Aligned/ Connected Baseline-led / Narrow Scope Separate Biophysical All SD-related themes environments ‘Traditional’ EIA COMPREHENSIVENESS Of the Coverage Relationships between Various Assessments in Three- Dimensions (ToT on SOM methodologies, May 2017, UB)
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