Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2019 Risenga Maluleke #StatsSA Statistician-General
South A frica’s unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% in Q2 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since Q1 of 2008 Unemployment rate from 40% Q1:2008 to Q2:2019 35% 29,0% 30% 27,6 % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
The unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high over time. There has been 1,4 percentage points increase between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019. Unemployment rate from Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 40% 40% 40% 29,0% 30% 30% 30% 29,0% 27,2% 29,0% 25,5% 23,2% 20% 20% 20% 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 2009 2018 2019 2014 2019 2019 Unemployment rate increased by Unemployment increased from 25,5% Unemployment rate increased by 1,8 5,8 percentage points between in Q2:2014 to 29,0% in Q2:2019 by percentage points compared to 3,5 percentage points Q2:2009 and Q2:2019 the same period last year
The working age population (15-64 years) in Q2:2019 was 38,4 million 38,4 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active 23,0 million 15,5 million Discouraged work seekers Employed Unemployed Other NEA 12,7 16,3 6,7 M M M M 2,7 Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 29,0% ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged Increased by 1,4 job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. ppts between Q1:2019 and Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Q2:2019
The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 150 000 people between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019 Changes between Q1:2019 and Labour market indicators between 40 000 Q2:2019 Not Economically Q1:2008 and Q2:2019 Other Not Economically 35 000 Active Active -77 000 q/q 30 000 Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active 25 000 - 248 000 q/q Unemployed 20 000 +455 000 q/q Labour Force Unemployed 15 000 10 000 Employed Employed +21 000 q/q 5 000 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19 2008 2019
QLFS Q2:2019 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES
The number of employed persons increased by 21 000 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019 Number of employed From Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 18 18 18 Million Million Million 16,3 16,3 16,3 16 16 16 16,3 15,1 14 14 14 14,4 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 Q2:2009 Q2:2019 Q2:2014 Q2:2019 Q2:2018 Q2:2019 The number of employed people The number of employed people The number of employed people increased by 25 thousand increased by 1,9 million from increased by 1,2 million from from 16,29 million in Q2:2018 to 14,4 million in Q2:2009 to 16,3 15,1 million in Q2:2014 to 16,3 16,31 million in Q2:2019 million in Q2:2019 million in Q2:2019 QLFS Q4:2018
The Labour force participation rate increased by 1,9 percentage points from 57,9% in Q2:2009 to 59,8% in Q2:2019 Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019 Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed 65,0 or unemployed. 57,9% 59,8% 55,0 13,4 % Points 17,4% Points difference difference 45,0 44,5% 42,4% Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. 35,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate
Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 education level, Q2:2019 Participation rate Unemployment rate Absorption rate -0,2 42,4% Total 59,8% +1,4 +1,0 29,0% +1,9 Less than -0,3 32,7% +1,1 49,9% 34,5% +2,0 matric +0,5 Matric +1,3 47,8% 67,7% 29,4% +0,7 Graduates 80,6% -0,9 +0,2 9,1% +1,2 88,7% Other +0,5 18,3% 69,3% -0,6 84,9% +1,2 tertiary
The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,2%) year olds. Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by age 15-64 yrs 59,8% Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 29,0% group, Q2:2019 42,4% Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate 55-64 yrs 45,3% +1,5 10,5% +0,4 40,5% +1,2 45-54 yrs 75,3% +0,6 17,2% +1,5 62,4% -0,6 35-44 yrs 80,4% 23,3% +1,2 +1,5 61,6% -0,3 25-34 yrs 74,0% 35,6% 47,6% +0,5 -0,7 +1,4 15-24 yrs +1,2 11,3% +0,2 56,4% 26,0% +1,2
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level. Unemployment rate by education Change: Percentage points level and age group, Q2:2019 Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years 15 – 24 years +1,4 Total 19,4% 35,6% +1,3 +1,2 56,4% Less than +1,8 42,8% 58,9% 25,3% +0,5 +2,0 matric Matric 55,8% 33,3% +0,9 +1,1 +0,7 18,1% Graduates 33,7% 13,4% +1,0 5,3% +2,7 +0,4 Other +9,8 57,3% +1,2 26,4% 9,3% 0,0 tertiary
QLFS Q2:2019 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
Not in employment, education or training (NEET) NEET Work Education Those young people (15-34 years) who are ? categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population
Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,7 of a percentage point in Q2:2019 compared to Q2:2018. NEET (15-24 years) by sex 15-24 YEARS 36% FEMALE NEET 34% 34,4% 34,1% Down by 0,2 of a percentage point 32% 30,5% 30% MALE NEET 28,9% Up by 1,6 28% percentage points 26% 24% 22% 20% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q2: 2019. Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change NC 37,0% (-1,1) NW 35,4% (-3,4) KZN 34,8% (+0,2) EC 34,5% (+0,5) MP 34,1% (-0,3) FS (+4,7) 33,2% (+0,7) RSA 32,3% GP 30,4% (+1,8) WC 28,6% (+0,6) (+1,4) LP 28,1%
Approximately 8,2 million (40,3%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years, were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y. NEET (15-34 years) by sex 15-34 YEARS 50% Female NEET FEMALE NEET Up by 0,3 of a 45% 43,9% percentage point 43,6% 40% MALE NEET Male NEET 36,8% Up by 1,8 35% 35,0% percentage points 30% 25% 20% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
The NW province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in employment, education or training at 45,9%. The rate increased by 1,8 percentage points year-on-year. Provincial NEET rate (Year – on – Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change (+1,8) NW 45,9% (+0,7) 45,2% NC (+1,5) EC 44,6% (-0,3) 42,9% KZN (+4,5) 41,8% FS (+1,3) MP 41,5% (+1,0) 40,3% RSA (+1,5) LP 38,7% (+0,4) GP 37,5% (+1,9) 32,6% WC
QLFS Q2:2019 EMPLOYMENT
The number of persons employed increased by 21 000 in Q2:2019 to 16,3 million Q/Q. Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q decreased by increased by decreased by increased by 49 000 5 000 49 000 114 000 Private Formal Sector Informal Sector Agriculture households (Non agricultural) (Non agricultural) (11,2 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (842 thousand jobs) (1,3 million jobs)
Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution . Share of Employment and GDP share Nominal per industry GDP Employment shares, Q2: 2019 (Q1:2019) Services 22,2% 24,7% Trade 21,0% 15,0% Finance 15,3% 20,3% Manufacturing 11,0% 13,1% Construction 8,4% 3,9% Private Households 7,7% Transport 6,0% 9,7% Agriculture 5,2% 1,9% Mining 2,3% 7,6% Utilities 0,9% 3,8%
The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were observed in trade, services and construction. Largest declines were observed in private households, transport, mining and finance. Employment changes by industry Quarter-on- quarter change (‘000) Year-on- year change (‘000) 84 Trade 210 Trade 48 Community and social services Finance 96 Construction 24 45 Manufacturing Manufacturing 9 Agriculture -1 Agriculture -9 5 Utilities 1 Utilities Transport -32 -21 Finance -45 Private households -36 Mining Mining -54 -42 Transport -70 Community and social services Private households -49 Construction -113
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