Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA QLFS Q1: 2018 The - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q1:2018 Faizel Mohammed Stats SA QLFS Q1: 2018

The labour market Q1:2018 37,7 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active* 22,4 million 15,3 million work seekers discouraged Other NEA Employed Unemployed 12,5 16,4 6,0 M M M 2,8 M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed 26,7% and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Unchanged btw Cannot be in two groups at the same time Q4 2017 and Q1 2018 QLFS Q1: 2018

2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1 Changes There was an increase of 153 000 people of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) between Q4:2017 and Q1:2018 40M Not Economically 35M Other Not Economically Active - 403 000 q/q Active 30M Discouraged work seekers 25M + 249 000 q/q Unemployed 20M + 100 000 q/q 15M Labour Force Employed 10M + 206 000 q/q 5M 0M Q1 2018 2008 QLFS Q1: 2018

QLFS Q1:2018 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard Q1:2018 16,4 M 14,4 M 15 M Number 10 M The number of employed people increased from of 14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,4 million in Q1:2018. employed 5 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50% 45,8% 43,5% 45% Absorption rate 40% Absorption rate increased in Q1:2018 to 43,5% (q/q) and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008 35% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. 65% Labour 60,5% 59,3% 59,6% force 60% participation 58,8% rate* 55% The labour force participation rate increased by 0,5 percentage points to 59,3% in Q1:2018 from Q4 2017. 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market rates by education level Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 Participation rate Unemployment rate Absorption rate 43,5% 26,7% 59,3% - 0,2 34,3% 1,4 31,1% 49,8% 1,9 - 2,6 48,0% 66,8% 28,2% - 2,9 0,7 7,9% - 0,5 82,2% 89,2% 1,3 0,7 15,6% - 1,4 71,3% 84,5% - 0,9 0,5 QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market rates by age group The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 is double that of the 45-54 year olds. Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 15-64 yrs 59,3% 43,5% 26,7% Participation rate Unemployment rate Absorption rate 8,9% 55-64 yrs 41,8% 45,8% 1,0 0,6 0,7 16,1% 45-54 yrs 62,1% 0,5 74,0% 0,2 0,7 35-44 yrs 64,0% 20,9% 0,7 0,0 80,9% 0,8 - 0,4 25-34 yrs 49,4% 33,0% 0,8 0,9 73,8% 12,2% 15-24 yrs 52,4% 1,3 - 0,5 - 0,3 25,6% QLFS Q1: 2018

Unemployment rate by education level and age group The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education Change Percentage points Q4 2017 to Q1 2018 level 25 – 34 years 15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years Total 33,0% 52,4% 17,6% Less than - 0,6 39,0% 53,6% 0,5 22,7% 0,0 matric 16,0% - 0,1 Matric 53,3% 33,0% 2,7 0,7 10,2% 4,7% Graduates 33,5% - 0,5 7,5 1,0 8,1% Other - 1,0 44,8% - 2,4 2,0 23,3% tertiary QLFS Q1: 2018

QLFS Q1:2018 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q1: 2018

Not in Employment, Education or Training NEET Work Education Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population QLFS Q1: 2018

Not in Employment, Education or Training NEET (15-24 years) by sex Approx . 3,3 million (32,4%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24, were The overall NEET rate not in employment, education or training. remained unchanged in Q1: 2018 compared to Q1: 2017 at 32,4% 2018 Q1 29,6% 35,3% 32,4% Male NEET Female NEET Down 0,9 of a Percentage Point Up 1,0 Percentage Point 2017 Q1 34,3% 30,5% -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 QLFS Q1: 2018

Not in Employment, Education or Training : Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1 2017 – Q1 2018) ( ) Y/Y Change (-1,8) NC 37,4% NW (+1,8) 37,0% KZN 36,4% (0,0) MP (+0,2) 35,9% (+0,3) EC 34,4% (0,0) RSA 32,4% GP (-0,9) 29,4% (+2,5) LP 29,1% FS (-2,2) 28,6% (-1,2) WC 26,9% QLFS Q1: 2018

QLFS Q1:2018 EMPLOYMENT QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment Q1:2018- Q/Q changes 16,4m Of people aged 15 – 64 years were employed in Q1:2018 (+206 000 q/q) Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Decreased by Increased by Increased by Increased by 111 111 000 00 5 000 5 00 93 000 00 - 3 000 00 Private Formal Sector Informal Sector Agriculture households (Non agricultural) (Non agricultural) (11,4 million jobs) (2,9 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs) (847 000 jobs) QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment and GDP share per industry Share of GDP Employment shares, Q1:2018 (Q4: 2017) 22,0% Services 23,1% Construction, Trade, Agriculture and Services 16,8% Trade 20,0% have higher employment shares relative to their Finance 21,8% 14,7% GDP contribution Manufacturing 11,3% 13,8% Construction 8,7% 3,8% Private households 7,8% 9,6% Transport 5,9% Agriculture 1,6% 5,2% Mining 2,4% 8,3% Utilities 0,9% 2,3% Other 0,1% 0 0 5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment changes by industry The biggest employment gains were recorded in the Services, Manufacturing and Construction industries, quarter-to-quarter Quarter-to- quarter change (‘000) Year-on- year change (‘000) 216 Services 95 Services 69 Trade 58 Manufacturing 59 Manufacturing 40 Construction 24 36 Finance Trade -2 30 Utilities Finance -4 5 Transport Private households -3 -28 Agriculture Agriculture -45 -6 Utilities Private households -14 -50 Mining Mining -41 -75 Transport Construction QLFS Q1: 2018

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q 58 000 00 40 000 00 95 5 000 00 36 000 00 MANUFACTURING CONSTRUCTION TRADE SERVICES Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in: Mainly driven by gains in:  Manufacture of basic  Building installation  Health and social work  Wholesale trade metals  Public administration and  Retail trade  Manufacture of coke, defence activities chemicals, rubber and  Activities of membership plastic organisations, NEC.  Manufacture of textiles,  Recreational , cultural and clothing and leather goods sporting activities QLFS Q1: 2018

Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q -14 000 00 - 41 000 00 - 6 6 000 00 Transport Mining Utilities Mainly driven by losses in: Mainly driven by losses in: Mainly driven by losses in: Mining of :  Collection, purification  Other land transport.  Non-ferrous metal ores  Railway transport and distribution of water  Stone quarrying, clay and  Manufacture of gas  Air transport sandpits  Diamonds QLFS Q1: 2018

Employment share by occupation, Q1:2018 Elementary 23,3% Sales and services 16,4% Craft and related trade 12,2% Close to a third of all people Clerk 10,7% employed in Q1:2018 were Manager employed in 8,7% elementary and domestic work Technician 8,6% occupations Plant and machine… 8,3% Domestic worker 6,1% Professional 5,3% Skilled agriculture 0,4% Other QLFS Q1: 2018

Formal sector employment 11,4 M 12 M 9,9 M 11,2 M 10 M 8 M Formal sector employment has shown an Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in 6 M upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q1:2018 Formal sector employment decreased by Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter 4 M 2 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 QLFS Q1: 2018

Informal sector employment 12 M Informal sector employment has increased 10 M from 2,4 million in Q1:2008 to 2,9 million in Q1:2018 8 M 6 M 2,9 M 4 M 2,4 M 2 M 2,8 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 QLFS Q1: 2018

QLFS Q1:2018 UNEMPLOYMENT QLFS Q1: 2018

Labour market dashboard 8 M 6,0 M Number of unemployed people 7 M 6 M 4,4 M 5,9 M 5 M 4 M 3 M The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4 2 M million in Q1:2008 to 6,0 million in Q1:2018 1 M 0 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Long term unemployment* 68,5% 80% 57,0% 60% The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% 40% in Q1:2008 to 68,5% in Q1:2018 20% * Unemployed for a year or longer 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 QLFS Q1: 2018