Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q3:2017 Dr Pali Lehohla Statistician-General #StatsSA Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target Unemployment The unemployment rate has been around the 25% level since 2010 current 27,7% unemployment rate Gap in reaching 2020 NDP target: 13,7 percentage points NDP Target 14% unemployment in 2020 Gap in reaching 2030 NDP target: 21,7 percentage points NDP Target 6% unemployment in 2030 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
South African Labour Market: Current state vs NDP target Employment Absorption Rate Labour Force Participation Rate 43,3% 16,2 million 59,9% in Q3:2017 in Q3:2017 in Q3:2017 24 million 61% 65% 2030 2030 2030 NDP target NDP target NDP target Gap in reaching 2030 NDP Gap in reaching 2030 NDP Gap in reaching 2030 NDP target: target: target: 5,1 percentage points 17,7 percentage points 7,8 million Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market Q3:2017 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
The labour market Q3:2017 37,4 million (up by 156 000 q-q) people of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) 22,4 million 15,0 million (up by 125 000 q-q) (up by 31 000 q-q) Labour force Not economically active* * Of which 2,4 million were discouraged work 16,2 million 6,2 million seekers ( up by 75 000 q-q) (up by 92 000 q-q) (up by 33 000 q-q) ILO hierarchy – Employed first then Employed Unemployed unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). NDP target 2030 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two Employment: groups at the same time 24 million Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Employment & Labour market rates Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Year-on-year employment changes vs GDP growth rates (yr-yr unadjusted) Yr-on-yr GDP changes (%) Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market dashboard Number of employed people increased from 14,4 million in Q1:2008 to NDP target 2030: 24 million 16,2 million in Q3:2017 Absorption rate remained unchanged in Q3:2017 at 43,3% and has NDP target 2030: not recovered to 61% level of 45,8% in 2008 Labour force participation rate of 59,9% remained unchanged in Q3:2017 after the NDP target 2030: highest LFPR of 65% 60,5% in Q1:2017. Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market rates by sex There are large disparities in the labour market by sex – the unemployment rate for women is higher than that of males. Women are also less likely to participate in the labour market Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market rates by education level The less educated are more likely to be unemployed Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market rates by age group The 25-34 year olds have almost the same level of participation as the 45-54 year olds but their unemployment rate is double that of the 45-54 yr olds and absorption rate almost 13 percentage points lower than this group Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Unemployment rate by education level and age group The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Profile of those Not in Employment, Education and Training (NEET) Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Not in Employment, Education and Training Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. NEET Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth- specific working-age population. Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
NEET (15-24 years) by sex Of the 10,3 million young people aged 15-24, 3,1 million were NEET which is 30,3%. The NEET rate for females decreased by 0,5 of a percentage point while it remained unchanged for males Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Provincial NEET rate GP LP South Africa 28,3% 25,0% (15-24 years) (-3,3) (+0,1) 30,3% (-0,3) MP NW Year-on-year changes 29,6% 36,5% (-1,4) (+0,9) KZN FS 31,6% 30,4% (0,0) NC (-3,1) 40,8% (+3,9) EC 34,0% (+3,2) WC 27,5% (+0,7) Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Will South Africa realise the demographic dividend? Population Labour market Demographic structure and education dividend Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Demographic dividend Proportion of the population by age and sex, 2008 and 2017 80 yrs+ 2008 75-79 2017 70-74 The pyramid 65-69 shows gains 60-64 in population 55-59 50-54 main reasons shares at ages 45-49 around 20 40-44 upwards. 35-39 And relatively 30-34 stable 25-29 proportions 20-24 15-19 at lower ages. 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Demographic dividend In order to realise its demographic dividend SA needs : – To create jobs at a similar rate to which the labour force is growing – a skilful labour force Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Employment Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
NDP target 2030 Employment Q3:2017 Employment 24 million 16,2m Jobs in the Agricultural sector decreased by 25 000 q /q People aged 15 – 64 years were employed in Q3:2017 Jobs in Private households A net increase of increased by 92 000 q/q 1 000 q/q Formal sector jobs Informal sector jobs increased by decreased by 71 000 q/q 187 000 q/q to 2,7 million to 11,4 million Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Employment and GDP share per industry Share of GDP (Q2:2017) 23,0 15,0 20,0 13,0 4,0 10,0 Services, Trade and 4,0 Finance remain the main contributors to 7,0 employment and GDP 4,0 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Employment – changes by industry Largest employment gains were recorded in Finance, Services, Transport and Trade, both quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year. Construction and Agriculture lost employment both quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Quarter-to-quarter employment changes mainly driven by: Gains Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Year-on-year employment changes mainly driven by: Gains Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Employment share by occupation, Q3:2008 and Q3:2017 Close to a third of all people employed in Q3:2008 and Q3:2017 were employed in elementary and domestic work occupations Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Informal sector employment Informal sector employment declined by 14 000 to 2,7 million in Q1:2017 12,0 Million Informal sector employment increased from 2,4 million in 10,0 Q1: 2008 to 2,7 million in Q3:2017 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,7 2,4 2,0 0,0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Formal sector employment 12,0 Formal sector employment 11,4m 9,9m Million 10,0 8,0 6,0 Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in 4,0 Formal sector employment decreased by Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter 2,0 0,0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Unemployment Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Multidimensional Poverty Drivers 5 Years 33 40 52 10 Years Unemployment and Education continue to drive Multidimensional Poverty CS 2016 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Poverty headcounts based on the FPL, LBPL and UBPL 70,0 66,6% 60,0 62,1% 55,5% 51,0% 50,0 53,2% 47,6% 40,0% 40,0 Percentage 36,4% 30,0 33,5% 28,4% 25,2% 20,0 21,4% Approximately 13,8 million South Africans were living below the FPL 10,0 in 2015, down from a peak of 16,7 million in 2009. 0,0 2006 2009 2011 2015 Source: Poverty Trends Report Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Labour market dashboard The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4 million in Q1:2008 to 6,2 million in Q3:2017 The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 67,3% in Q3:2017 Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Official unemployment rate Expanded unemployment rate The official unemployment rate remained The expanded unemployment rate increased unchanged (q/q) by 0,2 of a percentage point (q/q) 6,2 million 9,4 million people were unemployed in Q3:2017 people were unemployed in Q3:2017 An increase of 33 000 q/q An increase of 118 000 q/q 40,6% 33,4% 29,8% 26,0% remained unchanged (q/q) by 0,1 of a percentage by 0,2 of a percentage point q/q point q/q Source: QLFS, Q3:2017 Expanded unemployment consist of persons 15-64 years who did not have a job and were available to take up a job or start a business in the reference period (including discouraged work-seekers)
Provincial unemployment rate LP South Africa GP 19,1% 27,7% 30,2% (-1,7) (0,0) (+0,3) Quarter-to-quarter changes MP NW 30,7% 26,2% (-1,6) (-1,0) FS KZN 31,8% 24,6% NC (-2,6) (+0,6) 29,9% (-0,6) EC 35,5% (+1,1) WC 21,9% (+1,2) Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Summary of labour market measures Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
Understanding Non-economically active Source: QLFS, Q3:2017
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