Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) Q1:2020 Risenga Maluleke - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) Q1:2020 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA 1

South Africa’s unemployment rate increase by 1,0 percentage point to 30,1% in Q1:2020 compared to Q4:2019. Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q1:2020 40% 35% 30,1% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2

The unemployment rate usually increases between Quarter 4 and Quarter 1 each year. Change in unemployment rate q/q 3% nc = no change 2% Increasing unemployment rate Q on Q 1% nc nc nc nc nc 0% Decreasing unemployment rate Q on Q -1% -2% 20 Q1 -3% 3

The unemployment rate increased over time. Between Q4:2019 and Q1:2020, unemployment rate increased by 1,0 percentage point. Unemployment rate from Q1:2010 to Q1:2020 40% 40% 40% 30,1% 30,1% 30,1% 30% 30% 30% 27,6% 26,4% 25,1% 20% 20% 20% 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2010 2020 2019 2015 2020 2020 Unemployment rate increased Unemployment increased by 3,7 Unemployment rate increased by by 2,5 percentage points percentage points from 5,0 percentage points between compared to the same period 26,4% in Q1:2015 to 30,1% Q1:2010 and Q1:2020 last year in Q1:2020 4

The working age population (15-64 years) in Q1:2020 was 38,9 million 38,9 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 - year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active 23,5 million 15,4 million Unemployed Other NEA Employed 2,9 M 16,4 7,1 12,5 Discouraged work seekers M M M South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 30,1% ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged Increased by 1,0 percentage point job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. between Cannot be in two groups at the same time. Q4:2019 and Q1:2020 5

The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 147 000 people between Q4:2019 and Q1:2020 Changes between Q4:2019 and Labour market indicators between Q1:2020 40 000 Not Economically Q1:2008 and Q1:2020 Other Not Economically Active 35 000 Active -222 000 q/q 30 000 Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active +63 000 q/q 25 000 Unemployed 20 000 +344 000 q/q Labour Force Unemployed 15 000 10 000 Employed Employed -38 000 q/q 5 000 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19 Jul-Sep 19 Oct-Dec 19 Jan-Mar 20 2008 2020 6

QLFS Q1:2020 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES 7

The number of employed persons decreased by 38 000 between Q4:2019 and Q1:2020 and increased by 91 000 year-on-year Number of employed From Q1:2010 to Q1:2020 18 18 18 Million Million Million 16,4 16,4 16,4 16 16 16 16,3 15,5 14 14 14 13,8 12 12 12 10 10 10 5 Years 10 Years 1 Year 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 Q1:2010 Q1:2020 Q1:2015 Q1:2020 Q1:2019 Q1:2020 The number of employed people The number of employed people The number of employed people increased by 91 000 from 16,3 increased by 2,6 million from increased by 923 000 from 15,5 million in Q4:2018 to 16,4 million in 13,8 million in Q1:2010 to 16,4 million in Q1:2015 to 16,4 million in Q1:2020 million in Q1:2020 Q1:2020 8

The Labour force participation rate increased by 4,1 percentage points from 56,2% in Q1:2010 to 60,3% in Q1:2020 Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2010-2020 Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. 65,0 60,3% 60,0 56,2% 55,0 18,2% Points 14,0% Points difference difference 50,0 45,0 42,1% 40,0 Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age 42,2% population that is employed. 35,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate 9

Labour market rates vary significantly depending on the education level Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by Q4:2019 to Q1:2020 education level, Q1:2020 Absorption rate Participation rate Unemployment rate 42,1% -0,3 Total +1,0 60,3% +0,5 30,1% Less than 32,9% +0,8 +1,6 50,7% 35,2% +0,6 matric -2,4 Matric 46,5% 67,7% -1,8 31,4% +1,7 Graduates 78,7% -2,3 -0,7 9,5% +1,9 86,9% Other 68,0% -0,4 19,2% -1,1 84,2% +0,9 tertiary 10

The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (37,3%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,5%) year olds. Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by 15-64 yrs 60,3% 30,1% Q4:2019 to Q1:2020 age group, Q1:2020 42,1% Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate 55-64 yrs 44,7% +0,2 10,0% +0,8 40,2% -0,2 45-54 yrs 75,4% 17,5% +0,4 0,0 + 0,3 62,2% 35-44 yrs 80,5% 24,0% +0,3 +1,0 61,2% -0,5 25-34 yrs 74,5% 46,7% -1,0 +0,4 37,3% +1,7 15-24 yrs 11,1% 59,0% 27,2% +1,0 +0,9 +0,1 11

The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level. Significant increase in graduate unemployment for those aged 15 – 24 years Unemployment rate by education Change: Percentage points level and age group, Q1:2020 Q4:2019 to Q1:2020 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years 15 – 24 years +0,6 Total +1,7 19,8% + 0,9 37,3% 59,0% Less than 45,1% -0,2 61,8% 24,9% 0,0 +1,9 matric +1,2 +1,6 Matric +1,5 58,3% 35,1% 19,5% +2,0 Graduates 15,2% 33,1% 5,3% +1,3 +8,5 Other +0,2 54,0% +2,3 28,5% +1,1 10,6% tertiary 12

QLFS Q1:2020 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) 13

Not in employment, education or training (NEET) NEET Work Education Those young people (15-34 years) who are ? categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population 14

Approximately 3,5 million (34,1%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,8 of a percentage point in Q1:2020 compared to Q1:2019. NEET (15-24 years) by gender 15-24 YEARS 40% FEMALE NEET FEMALE NEET Up by 0,8 of a 35,9% percentage point 35% 35,1% MALE NEET 32,2% MALE NEET 31,4% Up by 0,8 of a 30% percentage point 25% 20% Q1: 2019 Q1: 2020 15

NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q1:2020. Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1:2019 – Q1:2020) ( ) Y/Y Change 41,6 NC (+4,0) KZN 39,1 (+1,8) 38,8 NW (-1,5) MP 35,4 (+2,9) 34,9 EC (-1,8) RSA 34,1 (+0,8) 32,4 FS (+2,0) GP 31,3 (+2,0) 30,2 LP (-1,5) (+0,8) WC 28,4 16

Over 8,5 million (41,7%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,1 percentage points y/y. NEET (15-34 years) by gender 15-34 YEARS 50% Female NEET FEMALE NEET Up by 1,1 percentage 45% 45,4% 44,3% points 40% MALE NEET 38,1% Male NEET 37,1% Up by 1,0 35% percentage point 30% 25% 20% Q1: 2019 Q1: 2020 17

WC and GP recorded NEET rate lower than the national average (41,7%) among young people aged 15-34 years. The rate increased in all provinces except in EC. Provincial NEET rate (Year – on – Year Change Q1:2019 – Q1:2020) ( ) Y/Y Change (+0,6) NW 46,2% (+1,2) 45,9% KZN (-1,4) EC 45,6% (+0,3) NC 44,0% (+2,6) 43,3% MP (+1,4) LP 42,9% (+3,3) FS 42,6% (+1,1) 41,7% RSA (+1,8) GP 38,4% (+0,2) 31,0% WC 18

QLFS Q1:2020 EMPLOYMENT 19

The number of persons employed decreased by 38 000 in Q1:2020 to 16,4 million q/q. Private Formal Sector Informal Sector Agriculture households (Non agricultural) (Non agricultural) (2,9 million jobs) (865 thousand jobs) (11,3 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs) Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Decreased by Decreased by Increased by Increased by 50 000 3 000 21 000 30 000 20

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution. Share of Employment and GDP Nominal share per industry GDP Employment shares, Q1: 2020 (Q4:2019) Community and 22,9% 24,0% social services Trade 20,3% 16,6% Finance 15,4% 19,9% Manufacturing 10,4% 13,0% Construction 8,2% 3,6% Private households 8,0% Transport 6,1% 9,8% Agriculture 5,3% 1,0% Mining 2,7% 8,9% Utilities 0,7% 3,2% 21