Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q3:2019 Risenga Maluleke #StatsSA Statistician-General
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1% in Q3 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since the QLFS started in 2008 Unemployment rate from 40% Q1:2008 to Q3:2019 35% 29,1 30% 29,0% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2
The unemployment rate has remained high over time. There has been 0,1 of a percentage point increase between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019. Unemployment rate from Q3:2009 to Q3:2019 40% 40% 40% 29,1% 29,1% 29,1% 30% 30% 30% 27,5% 24,5% 25,4% 20% 20% 20% 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 2009 2018 2019 2014 2019 2019 Unemployment rate increased by Unemployment increased from 25,4% Unemployment rate increased by 1,6 4,6 percentage points between in Q3:2014 to 29,1% in Q3:2019 by percentage points compared to 3,7 percentage points Q3:2009 and Q3:2019 the same period last year 3
The working age population (15-64 years) in Q3:2019 was 38,6 million 38,6 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active 23,1 million 15,5 million Other NEA Unemployed Employed 2,8 M 16,4 6,7 12,7 M M Discouraged M work seekers Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 29,1% ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged Increased by 0,1 of a job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. ppt between Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Q2:2019 and Q3:2019 4
The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 149 000 people between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019 Changes between Q2:2019 and Labour market indicators between 40 000 Q3:2019 Not Economically Q1:2008 and Q3:2019 Other Not Economically 35 000 Active Active -35 000 q/q 30 000 Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active 25 000 +44 000 q/q Unemployed 20 000 +78 000 q/q Labour Force Unemployed 15 000 10 000 Employed Employed +62 000 q/q 5 000 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19 Jul-Sep 19 2008 2019 5
QLFS Q3:2019 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES 6
The number of employed persons increased by 62 000 to 16,4 million between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019 Number of employed From Q3:2009 to Q3:2019 18 18 18 Million Million Million 16,4 16,4 16,4 16 16 16 16,4 15,1 14 14 14 13,8 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 Q3:2009 Q3:2019 Q3:2014 Q3:2019 Q3:2018 Q3:2019 The number of employed people The number of employed people The number of employed people decreased by 5 000 increased by 2,6 million from from 16,380 increased by 1,3 million from million in Q3:2018 to 16,375 million 13,8 million in Q3:2009 to 16,4 15,1 million in Q3:2014 to 16,4 in Q3:2019 million in Q3:2019 million in Q3:2019 7
The Labour force participation rate increased by 3,5 percentage points from 56,4% in Q3:2009 to 59,9% in Q3:2019 Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019 Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. 65,0 59,9 60,0 56,4 55,0 17,5% Points 13,8 % Points difference difference 50,0 45,0 42,6 40,0 Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age 42,4 population that is employed. 35,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate 8
Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by Q2:2019 to Q3:2019 education level, Q3:2019 Participation rate Unemployment rate Absorption rate 0,0 42,4% Total +0,1 59,9% +0,1 29,1% +1,9 Less than -0,2 32,5% -0,3 49,6% 34,4% -0,1 matric +0,6 Matric 48,3% 68,9% +1,2 29,8% +0,4 Graduates 81,7% +1,1 +0,4 8,2% -0,9 89,1% Other -0,3 19,1% 68,4% -0,9 84,5% +0,8 tertiary 9
The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (36,1%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,2%) year olds. Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by age 15-64 yrs 59,9% Q2:2019 to Q3:2019 29,1% group, Q3:2019 42,4% Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate 55-64 yrs 44,5% -0,8 9,9% -0,6 40,1% -0,4 45-54 yrs 75,5% +0,2 17,2% 0,0 62,5% +0,1 35-44 yrs 80,9% 22,9% +0,5 -0,4 62,4% +0,8 25-34 yrs 74,4% 47,5% +0,4 36,1% -0,1 +0,5 15-24 yrs 10,7% -0,6 58,2% 25,6% -0,4 +1,8 10
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level. Unemployment rate by education Change: Percentage points level and age group, Q3:2019 Q2:2019 to Q3:2019 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years 15 – 24 years +0,5 Total 19,2% 36,1% -0,2 +1,8 58,2% Less than +0,4 43,2% 62,6% 24,6% -0,7 +3,6 matric Matric 57,2% 33,7% +0,4 -0,1 +1,4 18,0% Graduates 33,6% 14,3% -1,4 3,8% -0,1 +0,9 Other 49,4% -7,9 +1,9 28,3% + 1,6 10,9% tertiary 11
QLFS Q3:2019 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) 12
Not in employment, education or training (NEET) NEET Work Education Those young people (15-34 years) who are ? categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population 13
Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,2 percentage points in Q3:2019 compared to Q3:2018. NEET (15-24 years) by sex 15-24 YEARS 36% FEMALE NEET 34% 34,3% Up by 0,7 of a 33,6% percentage point 32% 30,4% 30% MALE NEET 28,7% Up by 1,7 28% percentage points 26% 24% 22% 20% Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019 14
NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q3: 2019. Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change NC 38,8 (+3,0) NW 35,8 (+1,5) KZN 35,5 (+2,7) MP 34,8 (+1,3) 34,7 EC (-0,3) RSA 32,3 (+1,2) 30,1 (+1,1) FS LP 29,8 (+3,4) 29,1 GP (-0,6) (+1,0) WC 28,1 15
Approximately 8,2 million (40,4%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,4 percentage points y/y. NEET (15-34 years) by sex 15-34 YEARS 50% Female NEET FEMALE NEET Up by 1,0 percentage 45% 44,1% point 43,0% 40% MALE NEET Male NEET 36,9% Up by 1,8 35% 35,1% percentage points 30% 25% 20% Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019 16
The NC province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in employment, education or training at 45,3%. The rate increased by 3,1 percentage points year-on-year. Provincial NEET rate (Year – on – Year Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change (+3,1) NC 45,3% (-0,4) 44,8% EC (+3,0) NW 44,3% (+1,3) 43,3% KZN (+2,1) 42,8% MP (+3,0) FS 41,1% (+4,2) 41,1% LP (+1,4) RSA 40,4% (0,0) GP 36,7% (+1,7) 32,4% WC 17
QLFS Q3:2019 EMPLOYMENT
The number of persons employed increased by 62 000 in Q3:2019 to 16,4 million Q/Q. Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q increased by increased by increased by decreased by 35 000 38 000 53 000 43 000 Private Formal Sector Informal Sector Agriculture households (Non agricultural) (Non agricultural) (11,2 million jobs) (3,0 million jobs) (880 thousand jobs) (1,3 million jobs)
Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution . Share of Employment and GDP share Nominal per industry GDP Employment shares, Q3: 2019 (Q2:2019) Services 22,5% 24,1% Trade 20,8% 14,6% Finance 15,2% 19,4% Manufacturing 10,7% 12,8% Construction 8,2% 4,1% Private Households 7,9% Transport 6,0% 9,5% Agriculture 5,4% 3,1% Mining 2,6% 7,8% Utilities 0,8% 4,5% 20
Employment gains were observed in Services, Mining, Agriculture and Private households (q/q). Largest declines were observed in Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and Utilities. Employment changes by industry Quarter-on- quarter change (‘000) Year-on- year change (‘000) 56 Community and social services 103 Trade 38 Mining Manufacturing 41 Agriculture 38 38 Agriculture Private households 35 Private households 20 Finance 13 -4 Mining -8 Transport 4 Community and social services -18 Utilities -10 Finance -21 Trade Transport -21 -24 Construction -23 Utilities Manufacturing -30 Construction -163 21
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