Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q4:2019 Risenga Maluleke - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q4:2019 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA 1

South Africa’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 29,1% in Q4:2019 compared to Q3:2019. Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q4:2019 40% 35% 29,1 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2

There was no change recorded in the unemployment rate between Q3:2019 and Q4:2019. This is the first time since 2008 that the unemployment rate has not decreased in the 4th quarter. Change in unemployment rate q/q 3% nc =no change Increasing 2% unemployment rate Q on Q 1% nc ncnc nc nc Decreasing unemployment -1% rate Q on Q -2% 19 Q4 -3% 3

The unemployment rate has increased over time. Between Q3:2019 and Q4:2019, unemployment rate remained unchanged. Unemployment rate from Q4:2009 to Q4:2019 40% 40% 40% 29,1% 29,1% 29,1% 30% 30% 30% 24,3% 27,1% 24,1% 20% 20% 20% 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 10% 10% 10% 0% 0% 0% Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2009 2019 2018 2014 2019 2019 Unemployment rate increased by Unemployment rate increased by 2,0 Unemployment increased by 4,8 5,0 percentage points between percentage points compared to percentage points from 24,3% Q4:2009 and Q4:2019 the same period last year in Q4:2014 to 29,1% in Q4:2019 4

The working age population (15-64 years) in Q4:2019 was 38,7 million 38,7 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 - year olds) Labour force Not Economically Active 23,1 million 15,6 million Other NEA Unemployed Employed 2,9 M 16,4 6,7 12,7 M M M Discouraged work seekers Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 29,1% ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged remained unchanged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. between Cannot be in two groups at the same time. Q3:2019 and Q4:2019 5

The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 145 000 people between Q3:2019 and Q4:2019 Changes between Q3:2019 and Labour market indicators between 40 000 Q4:2019 Not Economically Q1:2008 and Q4:2019 Other Not Economically 35 000 Active Active +45 000 q/q 30 000 Discouraged work seekers Not Economically Active 25 000 +62 000 q/q Unemployed 20 000 -8 000 q/q Labour Force Unemployed 15 000 10 000 Employed Employed +45 000 q/q 5 000 Jan-Mar 08 Apr-Jun 08 Jul-Sep 08 Oct-Dec 08 Jan-Mar 09 Apr-Jun 09 Jul-Sep 09 Oct-Dec 09 Jan-Mar 10 Apr-Jun 10 Jul-Sep 10 Oct-Dec 10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-Jun 11 Jul-Sep 11 Oct-Dec 11 Jan-Mar 12 Apr-Jun 12 Jul-Sep 12 Oct-Dec 12 Jan-Mar 13 Apr-Jun 13 Jul-Sep 13 Oct-Dec 13 Jan-Mar 14 Apr-Jun 14 Jul-Sep 14 Oct-Dec 14 Jan-Mar 15 Apr-Jun 15 Jul-Sep 15 Oct-Dec 15 Jan-Mar 16 Apr-Jun 16 Jul-Sep 16 Oct-Dec 16 Jan-Mar 17 Apr-Jun 17 Jul-Sep 17 Oct-Dec 17 Jan-Mar 18 Apr-Jun 18 Jul-Sep 18 Oct-Dec 18 Jan-Mar 19 Apr-Jun 19 Jul-Sep 19 Oct-Dec 19 2008 2019 6

QLFS Q4:2019 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES 7

The number of employed persons increased by 45 000 to 16,4 million between Q3:2019 and Q4:2019 Number of employed From Q4:2009 to Q4:2019 18 18 18 16,4 Million Million Million 16,4 16,4 16 16 16 16,5 15,3 14 14 14 14,0 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 Q4:2009 Q4:2019 Q4:2014 Q4:2019 Q4:2018 Q4:2019 The number of employed people The number of employed people The number of employed people decreased by 108 000 from increased by 2,4 million from increased by 1,1 million from 16,529 million in Q4:2018 to 16,420 14,0 million in Q4:2009 to 16,4 15,3 million in Q4:2014 to 16,4 million in Q4:2019 million in Q4:2019 million in Q4:2019 8

The Labour force participation rate increased by 3,3 percentage points from 56,5% in Q4:2009 to 59,8% in Q4:2019 Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019 Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. 65,0 59,8 60,0 56,5 55,0 17,4% Points 13,6% Points difference difference 50,0 45,0 42,9 40,0 Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age 42,4 population that is employed. 35,0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate 9

Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by Q3:2019 to Q4:2019 education level, Q4:2019 Absorption rate Participation rate Unemployment rate 0,0 42,4% Total 59,8% 0,0 -0,1 29,1% Less than -0,4 32,1% -0,5 49,1% 34,6% +0,2 matric +0,5 Matric 48,9% 69,5% +0,6 29,7% -0,1 Graduates 81,0% -0,8 -1,4 7,6% -0,6 87,7% Other +0,1 18,3% 69,1% +0,7 84,6% -0,8 tertiary 10

The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,5%) year olds. Change: Percentage points Labour market rates by age 15-64 yrs 59,9% 29,1% Q3:2019 to Q4:2019 group, Q4:2019 42,4% Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate 55-64 yrs 44,5% 0,0 9,2% -0,7 40,4% +0,3 45-54 yrs 75,0% 17,5% -0,5 +0,3 - 0,6 61,9% 35-44 yrs 80,2% 23,0% -0,7 +0,1 61,7% -0,7 25-34 yrs 74,1% 47,7% +0,2 -0,3 35,6% -0,5 15-24 yrs 11,0% 58,1% 26,2% +0,6 -0,1 +0,3 11

The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level. Unemployment rate by education Change: Percentage points level and age group, Q4:2019 Q3:2019 to Q4:2019 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years 15 – 24 years -0,5 Total 19,2% +0,1 35,6% -0,1 58,1% Less than +0,4 0,0 43,2% 61,8% -0,8 25,1% matric Matric 57,1% 33,5% -0,1 -0,1 -0,2 17,9% Graduates 24,6% 13,2% +0,2 4,0% -9,0 -1,1 Other +4,5 53,9% -2,1 -1 ,4 26,2% 9,5% tertiary 12

QLFS Q4:2019 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) 13

Not in employment, education or training (NEET) NEET Work Education Those young people (15-34 years) who are ? categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population 14

Approximately 3,3 million (32,0%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,9 of a percentage point in Q4:2019 compared to Q4:2018. NEET (15-24 years) by gender 15-24 YEARS 36% FEMALE NEET FEMALE NEET 34% Up by 0,3 of a 33,7% 33,4% percentage point 32% MALE NEET 30% 30,3% MALE NEET 28,8% Up by 1,4 28% percentage points 26% 24% 22% 20% Q4: 2018 Q4: 2019 15

NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q4:2019. Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q4:2018 – Q4:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change 37,0 NC (+1,6) NW 36,6 (+3,7) 36,5 MP (+5,9) EC 34,8 (-2,3) 34,1 KZN (+0,3) RSA 32,0 (+0,9) 31,3 FS (+2,6) LP 29,6 (+3,7) 28,6 GP (-1,1) (-0,2) WC 26,2 16

Approximately 8,2 million (40,1%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,2 percentage points y/y. NEET (15-34 years) by gender 15-34 YEARS 50% Female NEET FEMALE NEET Up by 1,0 percentage 45% 43,9% point 42,9% 40% MALE NEET Male NEET 36,4% Up by 1,5 35% 34,9% percentage points 30% 25% 20% Q4: 2018 Q4: 2019 17

GP and WC recorded the lowest NEET rate of young people aged 15-34 years, below the national average (40,1%). The rate increased in all provinces with the exception of EC and NC. Provincial NEET rate (Year – on – Year Change Q4:2018 – Q4:2019) ( ) Y/Y Change (-1,8) EC 44,9% (+3,2) 44,1% NW (+0,5) KZN 42,7% (+3,9) MP 42,6% (+5,0) 42,3% LP (-2,2) NC 41,0% (+2,7) FS 40,8% (+1,2) 40,1% RSA (+0,3) GP 36,4% (+1,3) 31,2% WC 18

QLFS Q4:2019 EMPLOYMENT 19

The number of persons employed increased by 45 000 in Q4:2019 to 16,4 million q/q. Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Increased by Increased by Remained unchanged Decreased by 0 117 000 77 000 6 000 Private Formal Sector Informal Sector Agriculture households (Non agricultural) (Non agricultural) (11,3 million jobs) (2,9 million jobs) (885 thousand jobs) (1,3 million jobs) 20

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution. Share of Employment and GDP share Nominal per industry GDP Employment shares, Q4: 2019 (Q3:2019) Services 23,1% 23,9% Trade 19,8% 14,6% Finance 15,6% 19,5% Manufacturing 10,5% 13,3% Construction 8,2% 3,7% Private Households 7,8% Transport 6,2% 9,8% Agriculture 5,4% 2,5% Mining 2,6% 8,7% Utilities 0,7% 4,0% 21