Aging and labour markets in G20 countries International Labour - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aging and labour markets in G20 countries International Labour Organization G20 Framework Working Group 1 st meeting, 6-7 March 2019 08/03/2019

A1. The labour force is growing older Average age of the labour force, 1990-2030 (projections for 2018 and beyond) 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 World Africa Americas Arab States Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Source: ILOSTAT, ILO Labour Force Estimates and Projections

A2. Older people are becoming more economically active Change in labour force participation rates in the G20, by sex and age groups, 1998 and 2018 10 6.9 3.1 5 2 Percentage points 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -1.8 -5 -4.6 -6 -10 -15 -15.5 -16.3 -20 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age groups Female Male Source: ILOSTAT, ILO Labour Force Estimates and Projections

A3. Labour force participation is declining significantly in G20 emerging economies 68 G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging 66.8 66 65.1 64 62.5 62 61.8 60.4 60.4 60 6 … 59.9 59.3 58 56 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2021 are projections. Age group 15+ years.

A4. Opposing trends for youth and older workers Youth (15-24) LFPR % Old-age (65+) LFPR % 55 70 53.7 G20 advanced G20 Emerging G20 advanced G20 Emerging 65.5 50 65 50.5 45.8 45.5 45 60 58.3 57.0 43.8 55.5 56.7 40 55 37.6 50.5 35 50 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2021 are projections.

A5. Gender gaps remain Male vs female labour force participation rates, % +7% -30% Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Age group 15+ years.

B1. G20 labour market snapshot Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Age group 15+ years.

B2. Uneven (old-age) social protection coverage % 2017 or latest 94.8 93.6 100.0 90.0 80.0 73.3 70.0 60.0 50.2 47.2 50.0 40.0 25.7 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 G20 Advanced G20 Emerging G20 Emerging (without China) Proportion of population above statutory pensionable age receiving a pension, % Proportion of active contributors to a pension scheme in the labour force, % Sources: ILO estimates based on nation data compiled through Social Security Inquiry questionnaire 2016-2018, ILOSTAT, OECD SOCR and UNWPP. Estimated averages are weighted by population above statutory pension age and labour force respectively. G20 Emerging doe not include Saudi Arabia.

B3. Unemployment is stabilizing G20 unemployment rates % 10 G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging 9 8.6 8 7 6.7 6 5.6 5.2 5.2 4.9 5 4.8 4.7 4.8 4 3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2020 are projections. Age group 15+ years.

B4. Growing concern for youth Youth (15 to 24) unemployment rate % 20 G20 G20 advanced G20 Emerging 19 18.0 18 17 16 15 14 13.6 13.5 12.6 13 13.0 11.2 12 10.9 11.5 11 10.7 10 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Source: ILO Modelled Estimates, November 2018. Figures for 2018 are preliminary, 2019-2020 are projections. Age group 15-24 years.

B.5 Fragmented working lives of younger people Three-stage model Age 0 Education Age 20 Work Age 60 Retirement Multistage life Self- employment Retirement Education Training Volunteer Employment in an organization Mix of paid work Flexible work and unpaid work

B6. Weak wage dynamics Annual average real wage growth Adjusted Labour Income Share (2007-2018, %) (1990-2014, %) 10 70% 8 65% 60% 6 55% 4 50% 2 45% 0 40% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 -2 G20 advanced G20 emerging G20 Source: ILO estimates based on official national sources as recorded in the ILO Global Wage Database. Figures for 2018 are preliminary.

C1. Policy issues • Longer working lives (activation, flexible work arrangements, IT) • Sustained employment rates • Full employment path EWG • Skills and jobs for youth • Gender and non-discrimination • New job opportunities in the silver economy (long-term care work) • Higher numbers of active contributors • Transition out of informality • Ensure people in non-standard forms of employment and in labour market transitions do enjoy proper social protection coverage • Stronger and more sustainable social protection systems • Efficiency and equity • Macroeconomic role as automatic stabilizer