Introduction: Who is this presenter? Terrance (Terry) J. Bogyo (BSc, MBA, CCRC, RRP) Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant 1665 58 A Street Delta, BC V4L 1X5 AASCIF Convention 2015: e-mail: Terry.Bogyo@gmail.com Bridging the Future Blog: www.WorkersCompPerspectives.wordpress.com San Francisco July 6 Phone: (604) 943-3545 Terrance J. Bogyo Skype: terry.bogyo Independent Researcher | Speaker | Consultant Canada and California are not so very different Canada and California are not so very different when it comes to Workers’ Compensation when it comes to Workers’ Compensation Canada California Canada California Typical TT Compensation rate: Typical TT Compensation rate: Employed labour force 2014: Employment 2/3 rds Average Weekly Wage 90% of Net Earnings 17,802,200 Dec 2014: 17,566,281 No waiting period Three day waiting period Max insured 2014: varies by province- Max insured 2014: $1,611.96 per week BC: $77,900 Estimated covered by workers’ Estimated number of Alberta: $92,300 comp boards: workers covered by workers’ Administration costs for insured Manitoba: No Max, comp insurance: Ontario: $84,100 employers 2007*: 2013: 14.8 million Insurer underwriting profit: 2014: 14.7 million $1,976 million, Administration Costs for Assessable Actual [weighted]Average Employers ($000's) ($) 2011: $1,474,841 Administration expense: Assessment Rate for Average Workers’ $5,323 million [No equivalent for underwriting profit] Assessable employers Compensation Insurer Rate *IWH Workers' compensation in California and [2013]($/$100): 1.94 per $100 of Payroll, as of June Canada 30, 2014 (Dollar $): 2.96 https://www.iwh.on.ca/briefings/comp-california- canada 2010 Purpose and Outline Demographics dem·o·graph·ics ( dĕm' ə - grăf ' ĭks ) noun Demographic Effects: Global Changes – Local Impacts Purpose: shortened term for ‘population characteristics’ including race, age, income, educational attainment To persuade you that global demographic changes matter. Healthcare plan membership, multiple-job holding Outline home ownership, employment status, location What we mean by demographics ... How workforce and population demographics are changing What demographic change means to you and me, our families, our communities – and AASCIF jurisdictions 1
Top 10 Countries by Population Rise and Fall of Top Economies by 2050 1,600,000,000 2015 Philippines will advance 27 places to HSBC 2050 list of top economies 1,400,000,000 2025 16th largest economy. (change in rank from 2010) 2035 1,200,000,000 Japan’s working population will contract by a 37% 1,000,000,000 6) UK (-1) 1) China (+2) Advanced economies in Europe 800,000,000 7) Brazil (+2) 2) U.S. (-1) will see working population 600,000,000 3) India (+5) 8) Mexico (+5) dwindle 400,000,000 4) Japan (-2) Biggest drop will be felt 9) France (-3) northern Europe: 200,000,000 5) Germany (-1) 10) Canada (same) Denmark to 56th ( -29), 0 Norway to 48th ( -22), 16) Philippines (+27) Sweden to 38th (-20) Finland to 57th (-19). January 12th, 2012 “World’s top economies in 2050 will be ...” Posted by: CNN.com business producer, Kevin Voigt http://sasweb.ssd.census.gov/idb/ranks.html http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/12/worlds-top-economies-in-2050-will-be/ 10 Viewed May 21, 2015 Population Changes in the US Top 10 Countries by Population speaking… By 2050, out of every 10: Spanish English Country Country 5 Americans will be white Speakers Speakers 3 Hispanic United States 251,388,301 Mexico 109,955,400 1 Black Colombia 45,013,674 India 125,226,449 1 Asian Philippines 89,800,000 United States 44,321,038 Jeffrey S. Passel and D’Vera Cohn, US Population Projections, 2005-2050, Pew Research Center February 11, 2008 Nigeria 79,000,000 Argentina 40,677,348 “I t is estimated that by 2050 the United States will be home United Kingdom 59,600,000 Spain 40,491,051 to more 130 million Hispanics, Germany 46,272,504 Peru 29,180,899 making it the largest Spanish- Canada 25,246,220 Venezuela 26,414,815 speaking nation on the planet. ” Peter Reuell , “Watching Spanish grow: FAS -based France 23,000,000 Chile 16,454,143 observatory to be a center for language study” , Harvard Gazette, June 26, 2013 Australia 17,357,833 Ecuador 13,927,650 Italy 17,000,000 Guatemala 13,002,206 http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf Source: www.Mapsofworld.com 2013 data America’s Hinge Average Employment Income by Age Group & Education Level Moment $90,000 Presidential politics in $80,000 2016 will reflect the $70,000 shifting reality of $60,000 Less than high school America $50,000 High school $40,000 1980 – 80% US Trades College population was white $30,000 University 2060 - <44% $20,000 $10,000 $0 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to Politico Magazine – Mar 29, 2015: America’s Hinge 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 Moment by Doug Sosnik (democratic strategist, former advisor to Pres. Bill Clinton) Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population. Note: data is 2005 dollars 2
Unemployment and Weekly Earnings by Demographic Occupations with higher than average projected of “Educational Attainment” – US 2012 growth rates 2012-22 Unemployment rate in 2012 Median weekly earnings (Percent) ($) Professional degree Doctoral degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some college, no degree High school diploma Less than a high school diploma BLS: US Future Job Outlook 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0 500 1000 1500 http://www.census.gov/newsroom/cspan/emplo yment_projections/20140131_employment_proj ections_slides.pdf Demographics of Multiple Job Holders Half of North American WC Jurisdictions (Concurrent Employment) don’t cover Temporary Total Disability loss on Concurrent jobs Multiple Jobholding Sex and occupation Multiple jobholding rate (percent) Most generous cover losses in all AASCIF Men multiple jobs for Total Temp 5-6% of the employed Firefighters................................................. 28.6 Good news for multiple Disability including uninsured Emergency medical technicians ¶medics...20.1 labour force job holders. and self-employment Secondary school teachers......................... 14.0 Ranges up to nearly 10% Prevalence of multiple job (Ohio, WorkSafeBC) Social workers............................................. 13.5 holding is higher than In some occupations, nearly Elementary and middle school teachers....... 11.5 Some restrict coverage national averages in AASCIF 30% Similar Employment (Oklahoma) states Women Highest among women, Concurrent employment known Dental hygienists........................................ 12.9 Most member jurisdictions young adults(20-24) Psychologists.............................................. 12.5 to accident employer (Kentucky) (Canada and the US) cover Postsecondary teachers............................... 11.9 IRS Reported Income (Texas, ND) concurrent employment for Physical therapists...................................... 11.7 WC covered employment TTD fully or with some Therapists, all other..................................... 11.5 (WorkSafeNB, Kentucky ) restrictions Demographic: SSDI Recipients Demographic: SSDI Recipients • California • California H as 8% of the nation’s H as 8% of the nation’s SSDIrecipients (2012) US SS Disability Insurance Recipients at year end: SSDI recipients (2012) 1999 4,879,455 That’s 3.1% of the state That’s 3.1% of the state 2013 8,942,584 resident population resident population aged 18 to 64 (4.7% aged 18 to 64 (4.7% Monthly Expenditure as of January 2014 nationally) nationally) (disabled workers only) $10.236 Billion (762,133 recipients (762,133 recipients Social Security benefits, January 2014 Quick Facts Table 2 Dec 2012) http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/ Dec 2012) Most common causes Most common causes Mental disorders 305,382 Mental disorders 305.382 That’s about $ 123B per year. (“mood disorders” 127,452) (“mood disorders” 127,452) About a third of all countries Musculoskeletal 214,719 Musculoskeletal 214,719 on earth have a GDP less than that value. 3
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