Population Demographics Population Demographics for Growth and - PDF document

Board of Trustees Presentation Board of Trustees Presentation Population Demographics Population Demographics for Growth and Facilities for Growth and Facilities Planning Planning Robert B. Barr, Ph.D. Executive Director Institutional Research & Planning Purpose of Presentation Purpose of Presentation Additional information related to growth and facilities planning for the district An update on information provided in the Educational and the Facilities Master Plans Particular focus on growth in the corridors north of Rte 101 and between El Camino & 101 What is the population growth in and around the district and how many students will we be expected to serve?

Figure 1 – Adult Population, FHDA & CCC Enrollment, and FHDA FTES 1980 to 2004 Population/ Enrollment/FTES CCC Enrollment 50,000 2,000,000 Fall Enrollment 45,000 1,800,000 Foothill-De Anza CCD 40,000 1,600,000 Fall Enrollment California Community Colleges 35,000 1,400,000 30,000 1,200,000 25,000 1,000,000 Annual FTES Foothill-De Anza CCD Adult Population of 20,000 800,000 Santa Clara County 15,000 600,000 10,000 400,000 5,000 200,000 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 SOURCE: FHDA Enrollment and FTES data from FHDA Institutional Research & Planning. Population data from State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 1970-1989. Sacramento, CA, Dec 1998 and Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 1990-1999. Sacramento, CA, May 2004. CCC Enrollment from CPEC On-Line Data Query, Nov 2005. Note: Adult is 20 & up. Figure 2 - Historical and Forecast Population by Age Group Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties Combined 1990 to 2030 Total Chg 486,293 1,500,000 2005 to 2030 Age 25 to 59 1,250,000 0.1% annually Total Chg 12,647 2005 to 2030 1,000,000 Age 60+ 2.9% annually Total Chg 407,453 750,000 2005 to 2030 Age 0 to 14 0.2% annually 500,000 Total Chg 12,760 2005 to 2030 Age 15 to 24 250,000 0.6% annually Total Change 53,433 2005 to 2030 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 1990–1999. Sacramento, CA, May 2004. State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 2000–2050. Sacramento, CA, May 2004.

Figure 3 - Forecast Adult Population, Santa Clara, San Mateo, & California 2000 to 2030 Scale for Scale for Counties California Santa Clara Total Chg 336,000 1,800,000 50,000,000 Santa Clara 2005 to 2030 Santa Clara County Total Chg 135,000 45,000,000 1,600,000 1.0% annually 2005 to 2015 26.1% Total 40,000,000 2005 to 2030 1,400,000 35,000,000 1,200,000 California 30,000,000 California Total Chg 9 Million 1,000,000 1.4% annually 2005 to 2030 California 25,000,000 35% Total Total Chg 4 Million 800,000 2005 to 2030 2005 to 2015 20,000,000 600,000 15,000,000 San Mateo San Mateo County San Mateo 400,000 Total Chg 91,000 0.7% annually 10,000,000 Total Chg 37,000 2005 to 2030 16.8% Total 2005 to 2015 2005 to 2030 200,000 5,000,000 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: State of California, Department of Finance, Race/Ethnic Population with Age and Sex Detail, 2000–2050. Sacramento, CA, May 2004. Note: Adult is 20 & up.

Figure 4 - Forecast Adult Population Growth, Selected District Areas 2000 to 2030 Total District Gain 2005-2015 is 29,953 2005-2030 gain is 67,240 Remaining Tracks within 180,000 164,182 164,344 District Boundaries Remainder Gain 2005-2030 is 20,879 163,009 159,357 0.6% annually 152,673 160,000 14% Total 2005-2030 146,439 144,714 143,465 140,315 Within District Tracts 140,000 130,576 Between El Camino & 101 121,646 1.3% annually 116,219 116,272 110,948 120,000 32% Total 2005-2030 Between EC & 101 Gain 2005-2015 is10,698 100,000 2005-2030 gain is 35,491 80,000 60,000 North of 101 Gain 2005-2015 is 3,366 2005-2030 gain is 10,870 40,000 Within District Tracts 26,880 23,907 21,346 North of 101 19,376 17,010 16,239 16,010 2.7% annually 20,000 66% Total 2005-2030 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: ABAG Projections 2005 by Census Tract , December 2004. Note: Adult is 20 & up. FHDA Enrollment by FHDA Enrollment by Residence, 2005 (estimated) Residence, 2005 (estimated) District of Residence Count Percent Foothill-De Anza 12,565 29.9 San Jose-Evergreen 7,544 18.0 West Walley-Mission 8,803 20.9 San Mateo 3,278 7.8 Gavilan Joint 515 1.2 Other California 4,909 11.7 Out of State 424 1.0 Foreign 2,306 5.5 Total 42,026 100

Participation Rates, 2005 Participation Rates, 2005 Participation Rates per Headcount Population Area Population Headcount Percent Per 1000 District 270,426 12,565 4.65 465 City of San Jose 985,000 13,438 1.36 136 Santa Clara County 1,289,882 29,428 2.28 228 San Mateo 547,330 3,278 0.60 60 Participation Rates per FTES Population Area Population FTES Percent Per 1000 District 270,426 9,972 3.69 37 City of San Jose 985,000 10,665 1.08 108 Santa Clara County 1,289,882 23,356 1.81 181 San Mateo 547,330 2,601 0.48 48 Figure 5 - Forecast FHDA FTES Enrollment by Population Growth Area Based on District Adult Population Participation Rates, 2000 to 2030 2030 Total 2005 Total 2015 Total 42,883 38,148 34,068 22,500 20,851 20,872 20,702 20,238 District Remainder 19,389 20,000 17,715 17,428 17,500 18,598 17,820 16,583 Growth 2005-2015 15,000 4,080 FTES 15,449 14,767 14,309 14,076 12,500 Between El Camino & 101 Growth 2015-2030 4,735 FTES 10,000 Growth 2005-2030 8,815 FTES or 7,500 about 11,000 heads 5,000 North of 101 2,500 3,414 3,036 2,711 2,461 2,160 2,011 2,044 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: Forecasts by FHDA IR&P based on DOF P3 “Population Projections…,” May 2004 and “ABAG Projections 2005,” Dec 2004 and estimated future participation rates.

Figure 6 - Forecast FHDA FTES Enrollment by Site, Part 1 Based on District Adult Population Participation Rates, 2000 to 2030 Note: After 2010 only 20% of growth is allocated to these sites based on the current Facilities Master Plan De Anza On-campus 20,997 22,000 20,866 20,675 20,469 20,264 19,010 20,000 18,701 18,000 Gain from 2005 Is 16,000 14,000 Foothill On-campus 11,385 11,305 11,189 11,063 10,939 12,000 10,262 10,095 10,000 8,000 6,000 Foothill Off-campus 4,000 2,258 2,179 2,201 2,223 2,244 2,011 2,044 2,000 De Anza Off-campus 1,541 1,556 1,571 1,580 1,431 1,525 1,408 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: Forecasts by FHDA IR&P based on DOF P3 “Population Projections…,” May 2004 and “ABAG Projections 2005,” Dec 2004 and estimated future participation rates. Based on proportions indicated in FHDA Facilities Master Plan. Figure 7 - Forecast FHDA FTES Enrollment by Site, Part 2 Based on District Adult Population Participation Rates, 2000 to 2030 Note: After 2010 80% of growth is allocated to these sites based on the current Facilities Master Plan. 5,500 5,183 5,000 4,242 4,500 Other Growth 4,000 3,500 2,873 3,000 2,500 Middlefield 2,000 1,395 1,500 1,663 1,618 1,551 1,480 1,409 1,300 1,321 1,000 500 0 0 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SOURCE: Forecasts by FHDA IR&P based on DOF P3 “Population Projections…,” May 2004 and “ABAG Projections 2005,” Dec 2004 and estimated future participation rates. Based on proportions indicated in FHDA Facilities Master Plan.

Conclusions Conclusions The district must plan and provide educational programs and facilities for considerable growth in students over the next 10 to 25 years (2005-2030). Other factors affecting enrollment growth Closeness of educational site to students Comprehensiveness and/or specialized programs Reputation for excellence Convenience of schedule (e.g., 12-8-6 week, distance) Redirection of UC/CSU students requiring basic skills Tuition and other costs at UC and CSU Traffic congestion between site and student’s home State of the economy Specialized Programs for high school students (Middle College)