Orinda Union School District Facilities Master Plan Committee - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Orinda Union School District Facilities Master Plan Committee Meeting #3 November 8, 2017

FMPC meeting #3 / agenda Update of FMP Process 5 minutes Guiding Principles Activity 30 minutes Small Group Activity & Present Back Demographic Projections 20 minutes Educational Program Vision 20 minutes Sustainable Goals 30 minutes Small Group Activity & Present Back Upcoming Community Town Hall Overview 5 minutes 2

stakeholder outreach school site input school site district focus groups district focus groups 6/19-20/17 school site visits elementary programs 9/14/17 students 9/21/17 & secondary programs board of 10/3/17 principal interviews 9/26/17 trustees specialized support programs District Focus Groups online staff surveys 9/15/17 special 6/20/17 school site services 9/26-27/17 community meetings facility maintenance & master plan 5/31/17 committee operations 9/14/17 athletics (OIS) community outreach community 9/26/17 food service (OIS) outreach district communication plan technology 6/20/17 leadership 12/6/17 town hall forum voter opinion survey 3

inter+act | fmp guiding principles 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4 4

FMP process guiding principles “Building on a tradition of excellence… Enhance the OUSD Brand • As a “Beacon” District and Community of high expectations and high aspirations continue the tradition of excellence. Support the OUSD Vision • By creating facilities that align with the District’s Strategic Directions for development of future learners. Solicit Genuine Input • Through authentic engagement of District stakeholder groups and the wider community in the planning process. Inspire Creativity • Develop flexible, inspiring and truly student centered learning spaces that spark innovation and discovery. 5

FMP process guiding principles …and strong community support.” Achieve Balance • Exploring the wildest long-term dreams in contrast with pragmatic initial priorities for what people believe is most important. BRAND Integrate with Community • Attractive and engaging schools that invite the community in and with the surrounding natural environment flowing through. COMMUNITY VISION Deliver Real Success SUCCESS • A realistic, evolutionary and implementable plan that achieves results while moving the district in a positive direction. BALANCE INPUT CREATIVITY 6

inter+act | demographic projections 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 7 7

Work Accomplished by DDP for the Orinda Union School District n Prepared Initial GIS Data of District (including Locator, Boundaries and Study areas) n Mapped last 4 years of student data (2014-2017) n Researched area development projects/plans n Developed 7-year student projections n Will Provide a Demographic Projection Report with findings and analysis (in December 2017) 8

Mapping the District’s Students and Boundaries DDP mapped (“geocoded”) DDP broke the District up into the last 4 years of 50 Study Areas Orinda Union School District (neighborhoods) for a more students (2014-2017) detailed analysis 9

2017/18 K-5 Attendance Matrix H elps the District track its open enrollment distribution. 10

DDP Projection Methodology 11

Tracking Future Residential Development Data obtained by site visits, contacting developers/owners, County an and City Planners, discussion with District Staff an and access to current ae ac aerial imagery. There ar are an an estimated 218 total new housing units that ar are estimated to be constructed in the Orinda USD over the next 7 year ars. Wilder Subdivision Project Area 12

7-Year Residential Development Summary Report Development is then multiplied by Student Yield Factors (from 2016 Dolinka Group Study) 7-Year 10/17-18 10/18-19 10/19-20 10/20-21 10/21-22 10/22-23 10/23-24 Totals Projected Housing Units 55 56 57 50 0 0 0 218 13

Historical Birth Information Used for estimating incoming Kindergarten classes The Orinda Union School District has one zip code that corresponds to its boundary (94563): Zip Codes 94563 1999 134 2000 156 2001 132 2002 145 2003 130 2004 158 2005 140 Year of Birth 2006 128 2007 117 2008 146 2009 110 2010 111 Adjusted 2011 90 Birthrate Year of 2012 119 BASE Real Birthrate (used by DDP) Projection 2013 114 95.8% 95.8% 0.970 2018 2014 142 119.3% 119.3% 1.050 2019 118.5% 2020 2015 141 118.5% 1.050 111.2% 1.030 2021 116.3% 1.030 2022 115.3% 1.000 2023 114.3% 1.010 2024 ** Source: California Department of Public California Birth Profiles By Zip Code 1999-2015. 14

Birth Data Correlated to Kindergarten Class Sizes (Data for Zip Code 94563) 500 Base year First Year K + TK K Only of TK 294 281 274 274 261 261 232 226 250 146 142 141 140 128 119 114 117 111 110 90 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 K Class: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Births K Class (CBEDS) 15

Mobility Factors • DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are no new residential development over the past five years • DDP uses 4 years of student data (Fall 2014-17) and conducts annual grade transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – more conservative approach • This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures and apartment migration 16

Proje jections for Each Study Area Residence Projections for Study Area 38 Individual projections were run for each of the District’s 50 Study Areas (neighborhoods). 17

Proje jections for Each Attendance Area Residence Projections for Glorietta ES Individual projections were generated for each of the District’s four elementary attendance areas. These are simply the addition of the individual Study Area projections for that attendance area. 18

District-wide 7-Year Projections Projection Date 10/4/2017 Actual Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019 Fall 2020 Fall 2021 Fall 2022 Fall 2023 Fall 2024 TK 47 46.0 49.9 50.2 49.4 49.2 47.8 48.3 K 228 223.0 242.3 243.3 239.5 238.8 231.9 234.2 1 240 239.7 234.6 254.7 255.6 249.9 249.1 242.0 2 209 244.1 243.7 238.6 258.7 257.9 252.1 251.2 3 249 216.6 252.7 252.2 246.7 265.7 264.8 258.9 4 241 262.0 228.5 267.0 265.9 258.5 278.3 277.3 5 263 239.1 259.5 227.2 264.7 262.2 254.8 274.3 6 258 272.5 247.8 268.4 236.4 272.8 270.2 262.7 7 236 266.5 281.5 256.5 277.2 241.0 278.4 275.7 8 244 241.9 272.5 287.9 262.2 280.0 243.2 281.0 TK-8 2,215 2,251.4 2,313.0 2,346.0 2,356.3 2,376.0 2,370.6 2,405.6 Special Ed. K-8: 178 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 178.0 145 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 Out of District K-8: TK-8 Totals 2,538 2,574.4 2,636.0 2,669.0 2,679.3 2,699.0 2,693.6 2,728.6 Annual TK-8 Change: 36.4 61.7 32.9 10.3 19.8 -5.4 35.0 For Fall 2018: TK-8 = +36 Over the Next Seven Years: the net TK-8 count = +191 (+7.5%) The above projections EXCLUDE 5 Non-Public School students. 19

Attendance Area Projections by Residence Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall Growt h, St able or K-5 School Area 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Decline Del Rey ES 348 341.5 348.5 355.5 369.4 378.1 378.1 380.7 32.7 Glorietta ES 399 391.9 393.7 383.7 399.8 396.3 396.6 396.6 -2.4 Sleepy Hollow ES 315 306.2 310.1 312.5 311.0 318.1 318.3 320.4 5.4 Wagner Ranch ES 368 385.0 409.1 431.5 451.2 440.2 437.9 437.7 69.7 Intermediate (6-8) Orinda IS 738 780.9 801.8 812.8 775.8 793.8 791.8 791.8 53.8 K-8 Totals: 2,168 2,205.5 2,263.2 2,296.0 2,307.2 2,326.5 2,322.7 2,327.2 159.2 Annual K-8 Change: 37.5 57.7 32.8 11.2 19.3 -3.8 4.5 Annual TK Estimates: 47 46.0 50.0 50.2 49.4 49.2 47.8 48.3 1.3 Above 2017 counts exclude: 145 K-8 Out-of-District students and 178 Special Ed. students. 20

Projected Changes in the K-5 Student Population from Fall 2017 through Fall 2024 for OUSD Projected areas of growth and decline in the Orinda neighborhoods over the next 7 years 21

DDP Demographic Summary • Over the next seven years, the District may grow by 7.5% (+191 TK-8 students); +109 TK-5 students and +81 6-8 students. • This eventual upswing in the enrollment is mainly due to the construction of 218 new housing units plus the influx of new students due to housing resales (this has been the most impactful factor for the District - Mobility Factors ) • It appears that no new schools should be needed over the next seven years. However, the District needs to make sure that their existing facilities can accommodate the projected enrollment. 22

educational program vision | introduction 23 23

stakeholder outreach / educational vision development Orinda USD Mission Statement “ Building on a tradition of educational excellence and strong community support, we will inspire and challenge each student through strong academics and continuously improving programs that will develop the character and abilities needed to shape an ever-changing world.” Strategic Directions • Inspire Innovators and Problem Solvers • Create Resourceful Collaborators and Critical Thinkers • Cultivate Ethical and Respectful Citizens • Nurture Emotional, Social, and Physical Well-Being 24