OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 25, 2017 Fiscal Year Fiscal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OCTOBER FORECAST OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 25, 2017

Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 OCTOBER Beginning Balance 4,370,766 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) + Revenue 28,493,364 28,718,771 29,141,323 29,524,022 29,911,937 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - + Proposed New Levies - - - - - - Expenditures (29,167,458) (29,384,692) (30,773,657) (32,226,751) (33,668,197) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (674,094) (665,921) (1,632,334) (2,702,729) (3,756,260) Ending Balance 3,696,672 3,030,751 1,398,416 (1,304,313) (5,060,573) Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Beginning Balance 5,024,009 4,215,109 3,174,984 2,375,928 343,829 + Revenue 27,806,894 28,322,328 28,933,731 29,236,856 29,694,827 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies - - - - - + Proposed New Levies - - - - - MAY - Expenditures (28,615,794) (29,362,453) (29,732,786) (31,268,955) (32,866,337) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit (808,900) (1,040,126) (799,055) (2,032,099) (3,171,510) Ending Balance 4,215,109 3,174,984 2,375,928 343,829 (2,827,681) GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Higher growth rates at reappraisal than had been anticipated Transportation and base per pupil cuts GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Lower than expected renewal GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Prior Year Actual/Estimated Enrollment (October Count) 2,455 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 Projected Changes to Prior Year Enrollment Net All-Grade Level Mobility Factor (Change) to Prior Year 70 72 69 72 72 Net Aggregate Manual Adjustments to Mobility Factor -23 0 0 0 0 New Kindergartners In 158 130 158 142 170 Loss of Seniors from Prior Year -208 -212 -201 -230 -202 Net Change in Outgoing and Incoming Pupils -50 -82 -43 -88 -32 Current Year Estimated Enrollment (Simulated October Count) 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 2,492 District Head Count Grade K 158 130 158 142 170 1 162 180 148 180 161 2 182 172 191 157 191 3 176 188 178 198 162 4 181 186 198 188 209 5 178 186 192 204 194 6 184 185 193 199 212 7 196 185 186 194 200 8 195 202 190 191 200 9 202 200 207 195 196 10 228 200 198 205 193 11 198 227 199 197 204 12 212 201 230 202 200 Total Can Differ by Rounding 2,452 2,442 2,468 2,452 2,492 Year-Over-Year Percentage Change -0.12% -0.41% 1.06% -0.65% 1.63% GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Revenue Overview PROJECTED Prev. 5-Year 5-Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change Change Revenue: 1.010-Real Estate 4.49% 1.05% 2.28% 1.50% 1.82% 1.64% 1.66% 1.020-Public Utility 13.19% 2.54% 3.53% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.31% 1.030-Income Tax n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.035-State Funding 4.58% 2.87% -1.07% 0.00% -0.01% 0.02% 0.36% 1.040-Restricted Aid 127.25% -17.21% 1.68% 1.99% 1.12% 1.16% -2.25% 1.045-Restr Federal SFSF -100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.050-Property Tax Alloc -1.87% 1.62% 2.34% 1.49% 1.85% 1.82% 1.82% 1.060-All Other Operating 17.32% 15.76% -10.28% 12.51% -5.70% 0.07% 2.47% 1.070-Total Revenue 4.36% 1.79% 1.27% 1.47% 1.31% 1.34% 1.44% Previous five years includes the increase from the 2013 levy GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

State Aid 1.035 - Unrestricted Grants-in-Aid Revenue Detail Note GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SD Percentage of Total Revenue: Actual Projected 23.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Core Aid Funding Core Funding Per Pupil $6,000 $6,010 $6,020 $6,100 $6,200 $6,300 State Share of Core Funding 31.7% 33.4% 33.4% 29.2% 29.2% 27.3% Square Miles Transportation Aid 597,207 $460,143 $409,890 $363,041 $359,445 $340,025 Guarantee % Based on the 2nd Year of the Prior Biennium 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Transitional Aid Guarantee $0 $0 $0 $669,891 $596,538 $816,914 2,498.92 Growth Cap 1.075 1.030 1.030 1.050 1.050 1.050 FY14 Total ADM 2,441.73 Maximum Capped Amount 6,546,254 6,376,022 6,526,698 6,618,111 6,618,111 6,618,111 FY16 Total ADM $ 6,214,002 Final Funding Amount 6,214,134 6,362,400 6,330,463 6,332,504 6,333,686 6,334,915 FY17 Final Funding GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

2017 Reappraisal YOY BOR/Update/Reappraisal Tax Year Agricultural Residential Class II (All) 2009 1.5% 0.2% -0.6% 2010 -1.4% 0.1% -1.5% 2011 8.5% -0.6% 1.0% 2012 -0.2% -0.6% -8.6% 2013 -1.1% 0.0% -0.5% 2014 21.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2015 0.5% 0.0% -0.4% 2016 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 2017 -6.0% 15.7% 7.0% 2018 -0.3% 0.0% -0.5% 2019 -0.3% 0.0% -0.5% 2020 0.5% 6.0% 1.7% 2021 -0.3% -0.5% -0.5% GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Expenditure Overview PROJECTED Prev. 5-Year 5-Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Change Change Expenditures: 3.010-Salaries 1.52% 4.86% 3.54% 4.18% 3.82% 3.50% 3.98% 3.020-Benefits 4.60% 3.31% -3.36% 6.79% 8.06% 7.94% 4.55% 3.030-Purchased Services 6.68% 0.83% 2.91% 4.36% 3.37% 2.78% 2.85% 3.040-Supplies & Materials 1.00% 18.37% 2.82% 2.84% 2.86% 2.89% 5.96% 3.050-Capital Outlay -2.34% 76.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 15.23% 3.060-Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.010-4.060-Debt 0.00% 60.92% -63.01% -2.27% -2.48% -1.62% -1.69% 4.300-Other Objects 10.50% -0.98% 1.92% 1.92% 1.92% 1.92% 1.34% 4.500-Total Expenditures 2.94% 4.75% 0.75% 4.73% 4.73% 4.48% 3.89% New Energy Lease-Purchase/Old Energy Project Impact of insurance renewal Includes impact of 2013 RIF GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Summary of Labor Agreement • Three-year agreement • Base salary increases of 2%, 2%, and 2.25% • Health insurance switches from a PPO to a two-tier High Deductible Health Care program with Health Savings Accounts (H.S.A) effective 1/1/2018 • District contributions to the H.S.A • Cost sharing of premium increases upon renewals 1/1/19 and 1/1/20 through reduced district H.S.A contributions Granville Exempted Village Schools 10

The October Forecast and Levy Needs • The financial outlook has improved since the May 2017 forecast • Not enough improvement to change timing for a new levy • State budget cuts have hurt long-term trend • The district is anticipating a new levy during the five-year forecast period • Cash balances are expected to approach zero in the 2020/2021 school year GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS 11

Levy Update • Based on the forecast, we are anticipating to be on the ballot in 2018 for new operating money • The 1.7 mill PI levy expires in 2019 and can be renewed • The 0.5 mill maintenance levy expires in 2019 and cannot be renewed • The bond millage rate is expected to be reduced in 2019 by 0.45 mills due to the 2015 bond refunding • Newark/Granville Community Authority special assessments start ending in 2021 GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Levy Strategy • Based on various economic factors, a new earned income tax is being strongly considered • Move inside millage from operating to PI to create a permanent PI funding source and to bolster PI resources • Allow the PI levy to expire • The elimination of the PI levy, the 0.5 mill maintenance levy, and the bond millage would cause overall school property tax millage rates to drop by about 2.25 mills, about a five percent reduction in school property taxes GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS

Why an Earned Income Tax? Senior Percent Household Income Range of Matched Households Less than $30,000 51.5% Matching state tax returns filed in April 2015 with $30,000 - $50,000 48.0% homeowners in Granville—26% of homeowners are $50,000 - $70,000 37.2% senior citizens, which jumps to about 50% of those $70,000 - $85,000 29.9% with household incomes below $50,000. In general, $85,000 - $100,000 26.6% older homeowners who have been in their current $100,000 - $125,000 22.3% homes for longer periods of time were most adversely $125,000 - $150,000 24.8% impacted by the 2017 reappraisal $150,000 - $175,000 14.6% $175,000 - $200,000 18.3% $200,000 - $250,000 17.8% $250,000 and greater 11.4% Matched Parcels 26.1% GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS 14

Why an Earned Income Tax? Number of Personal % of Total Estimated Personal Exemptions Household Income Range Matched Avg. Earned Exemptions per Return Households Income Less than $30,000 7.2% 319 1.6 $13,858 As earned incomes go up, the number $30,000 - $50,000 6.3% 341 1.9 $33,090 of personal exemptions increase, an $50,000 - $70,000 9.1% 583 2.3 $47,556 indication of presence of “users” of $70,000 - $85,000 8.7% 604 2.5 $59,756 the Granville Schools $85,000 - $100,000 8.8% 720 3.0 $71,819 $100,000 - $125,000 13.8% 1,178 3.1 $86,853 $125,000 - $150,000 11.7% 1,051 3.3 $106,123 $150,000 - $175,000 7.9% 717 3.3 $125,536 $175,000 - $200,000 5.5% 527 3.4 $145,435 $200,000 - $250,000 7.1% 648 3.3 $164,504 $250,000 and greater 13.7% 1,285 3.4 $356,977 15 GRANVILLE EXEMPTED VILLAGE SCHOOLS